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Author: Svetlana Vtyurina Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451962177 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 21
Book Description
This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.
Author: Svetlana Vtyurina Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451962177 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 21
Book Description
This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781557758255 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 92
Book Description
This occasional paper provides an overview of the economic reform experiences of the Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union since their independence at the turn of the decade. The choice of countries reflects not only a geographical grouping, but also similarities in the types of transition challenges faced by these countries notwithstanding considerable variations in their sizes, ethnic composition, resource endowments, and economic structures. The paper attempts to identify a number of key macroeconomic and structural areas where the slower reformers in the group might benefit from the experience of the faster reformes.
Author: Jongrim Ha Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464813760 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 524
Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451837038 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 75
Book Description
All of the quantitative performance criteria were observed for the period under review. The authorities recognize the numerous challenges facing their program and remain committed to its successful implementation. Given continued strong fiscal performance and the expectation of improved monetary policy implementation, the authorities are confident that they can meet all the program's targets. Discussions with the authorities centered on strengthening the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) by restructuring its operations and strengthening the authorities' capacity to implement structural reform.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451836945 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 122
Book Description
This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Tajikistan during 1994–97. In 1996, the authorities embarked on their first comprehensive effort at economic reform, supported by financial assistance from the World Bank and the IMF. Although implementation was uneven, the authorities were successful in achieving a degree of macroeconomic stability during the first three quarters of 1996; progress was also made on structural reforms. However, confronted with substantial unanticipated expenditures, the budget deficit increased substantially in late 1996 and the first half of 1997.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 101
Book Description
Strong growth continued in 2022 with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine, while strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Although negative spillovers from the war have not materialized, it remains unclear to what extent Tajikistan will continue to be relatively unaffected by weaker economic activity in Russia.
Author: Asian Development Bank Publisher: Asian Development Bank ISBN: 9292575384 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 155
Book Description
Building on robust economic growth since the end of a civil war in 1997, Tajikistan has transformed itself into a service economy driven by consumer spending fueled by strong remittance inflow. Yet the transfer of resources to high value-added sectors has been restrained, and structural change has generated few new jobs. Without sufficient employment opportunities in the services and industrial sectors, agriculture became the fallback for most of the labor force. To continue its economic growth, Tajikistan requires new drivers from a diversified industry sector and a modernized economy through structural transformation and export diversification.
Author: Mr.Tonny Lybek Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451842023 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 39
Book Description
A higher degree of de jure autonomy and accountability of the central banks of the Baltic states, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union appears to be positively correlated with lower average inflation. There also seems to be some positive correlation between greater central bank autonomy and higher average real growth, after the initial period of reforms. Central banks with a higher degree of autonomy and accountability have apparently also reformed their operations more aggressively.
Author: Svetlana Vtyurina
Author: Svetlana Vtyurina
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Jongrim Ha
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: IBP USA
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author: Asian Development Bank
Author: Mr.Tonny Lybek
Author: IBP USA