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Author: Jongrim Ha Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464813760 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 524
Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: Jongrim Ha Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464813760 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 524
Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: Janice Eberly Publisher: Brookings Institution Press ISBN: 0815738293 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 541
Book Description
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: All Medicaid Expansions Are Not Created Equal: The Geography and Targeting of the Affordable Care Act Craig Garthwaite, John Graves, Tal Gross, Zeynal Karaca, Victoria Marone, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo Policies and Payoffs to Addressing America’s College Graduation Deficit Christopher Avery, Jessica Howell, Matea Pender, and Bruce Sacerdote The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan, and Julien Matheron Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad? Kristen J. Forbes Macri’s Macro: The Elusive Road to Stability and Growth Federico Sturzenegger Progressive Wealth Taxation Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1135179778 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Robert E. Hall Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226313255 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 302
Book Description
This volume presents the latest thoughts of a brilliant group of young economists on one of the most persistent economic problems facing the United States and the world, inflation. Rather than attempting an encyclopedic effort or offering specific policy recommendations, the contributors have emphasized the diagnosis of problems and the description of events that economists most thoroughly understand. Reflecting a dozen diverse views—many of which challenge established orthodoxy—they illuminate the economic and political processes involved in this important issue.
Author: L.D. Taylor Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1475747098 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 271
Book Description
Capital, Accumulation, and Money: An Integration of Capital, Growth, and Monetary Theory is a book about capital. A root concept of capital is developed which allows for most existing concepts of capital to be unified and related to one another in consistent fashion. Such a root concept of capital offers a framework for integrating monetary and capital theory, and for analyzing the functioning of an economy, whether that economy is in a steady state of subsistence or in a process of sustainable growth. Specifically, it is shown that a conservation principle emerges that both implies and imposes a variety of constraints on the macro behavior of an economy, constraints which make for straightforward understanding and analysis of such concepts as the real stock of money, real-balance effects, and the general price level. New and illuminating insights are also provided into aggregate supply and demand, natural and money rates of interest, the relationship between real and monetary economies, and economic growth and development.
Author: Vizhdan Boranova Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513521276 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
Author: International Monetary Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 86
Book Description
The economy is recovering from a historic downturn thanks to policy support, rebounding oil prices and international financial assistance. Benefiting from the authorities’ pro-active approach, COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities have been contained. With higher oil prices and the country entering into the 2023 Presidential election cycle, there are risks of delays in much needed fiscal and exchange rate reforms. Macroeconomic and structural policies should build confidence and ensure a robust exit from the crisis.
Author: National Intelligence Council Publisher: Cosimo Reports ISBN: 9781646794973 Category : Languages : en Pages : 158
Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Michael Bruno Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economic development Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
Author: Jongrim Ha
Author: Jongrim Ha
Author: Janice Eberly
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Author: Robert E. Hall
Author: L.D. Taylor
Author: Vizhdan Boranova
Author: International Monetary
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Author: National Intelligence Council
Author: Michael Bruno