Author: Patricia C. O'BrienPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 17
Book Description
Individual Forecasting Ability
Author: Patricia C. O'BrienIndividual Forecasting Ability (Classic Reprint)
Author: Patricia C. O'BrienPublisher: Forgotten Books
ISBN: 9780484390729
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
Excerpt from Individual Forecasting Ability The criterion I apply to evaluate forecasting ability is average accuracy on the portfolio of predictions made by an individual, through time. It is reasonable to presume that some firms' earnings are harder to forecast than others'. Since analysts may, to some extent, choose to predict earnings for some firms and not others, this endogenous selection is important to the specification of statistical tests. The results reported here remove the effects differential predictability across industries in comparing analysts. Evaluation of average portfolio accuracy through time is important in earnings forecast data. Each year, there is a relatively large component of unanticipated information which is common across firms, probably because of unanticipated economy-wide or industry-wide events. This common information is evident in the large, statistically significant year-by-year differences in (cross-sectional) average forecast errors. This general feature of earnings forecast data makes it difficult to distinguish between a lucky guess on a macro event and true forecasting ability at the micro level, when only short time-series are available.5 Current databases are rich in cross-sectional observations, but the number of years over which forecasts are available is still relatively small. This issue, and my treatment of it, is discussed further in section 3. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Individual Forecasting Ability
Author: Patricia C O'BrienPublisher: Palala Press
ISBN: 9781342066107
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
Book Description
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Superforecasting
Author: Philip E. TetlockPublisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Making Climate Forecasts Matter
Author: National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030917340X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 189
Book Description
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES
Author: PATRICIA C. O'BRIENArtificial Intelligence-Based Forecasting and Analytic Techniques for Environment and Economics Management
Author: Wendong YangPublisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2832504728
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 328
Book Description
Manager's Guide to Forecasting
Author: David M. GeorgoffPublisher:
ISBN: 9780000861047
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 5
Book Description
Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging
Author: Francesco RavazzoloPublisher: Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN: 9051709145
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 198
Book Description
Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this thesis we focus on forecasting financial time series using model averaging schemes as a way to produce optimal forecasts. We derive and discuss in simulation exercises and empirical applications model averaging techniques that can reproduce stylized facts of financial time series, such as low predictability and time-varying patterns. We emphasize that model averaging is not a "magic" methodology which solves a priori problems of poorly forecasting. Averaging techniques have an essential requirement: individual models have to fit data. In the first section we provide a general outline of the thesis and its contributions to previ ous research. In Chapter 2 we focus on the use of time varying model weight combinations. In Chapter 3, we extend the analysis in the previous chapter to a new Bayesian averaging scheme that models structural instability carefully. In Chapter 4 we focus on forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. In Chapter 5 we attempt to shed more light on forecasting performance of stochastic day-ahead price models. We examine six stochastic price models to forecast day-ahead prices of the two most active power exchanges in the world: the Nordic Power Exchange and the Amsterdam Power Exchange. Three of these forecasting models include weather forecasts. To sum up, the research finds an increase of forecasting power of financial time series when parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and optimal decision making are included.
Author: