Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations PDF Download

Author: Ina Hajdini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author: Charles Bellemare
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumers
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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'We propose and estimate a dynamic and individual model of expectations formation that links individual consumers' inflation expectations to their own lagged forecasts as well as proxies for the rational expectation forecasts. The model builds on the existing rational inattention literature and extends it in several dimensions. We explicitly model the expectations updating rule which consumers use to incorporate new information in their experience and take seriously heterogeneity in inflation expectations extensively documented in the literature. We estimate the model using data from two important new surveys -- the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations and the Bank of Canada's Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We find that inflation expectations appear to correlate more strongly to measures of rational expectations forecasts in Canada than in the US, and conversely less to lagged expectations. More specifically, the median respondent assigns overall weights of roughly 75% to proxies for the rational expectation forecasts and 25% to lagged expectations in Canada, while these weights are around 50-50 for the US. We show that these differences in weights are not explained by differences in the characteristics of their stand-in consumers. Given this finding, one candidate explanation could be related to the explicit inflation target in Canada in comparison to the dual mandate in the US'--Abstract, page ii.

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author: Peter J N Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179786
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273

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Book Description
This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved, including the spread of inflation targeting and the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so.

Author: Kenneth A. Bollen
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111861903X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 528

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Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data Alan Agresti Statistical Science Now has its first coordinated manual of methods for analyzing ordered categorical data. This book discusses specialized models that, unlike standard methods underlying nominal categorical data, efficiently use the information on ordering. It begins with an introduction to basic descriptive and inferential methods for categorical data, and then gives thorough coverage of the most current developments, such as loglinear and logit models for ordinal data. Special emphasis is placed on interpretation and application of methods and contains an integrated comparison of the available strategies for analyzing ordinal data. This is a case study work with illuminating examples taken from across the wide spectrum of ordinal categorical applications. 1984 (0 471-89055-3) 287 pp. Regression Diagnostics Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity David A. Belsley, Edwin Kuh and Roy E. Welsch This book provides the practicing statistician and econometrician with new tools for assessing the quality and reliability of regression estimates. Diagnostic techniques are developed that aid in the systematic location of data points that are either unusual or inordinately influential; measure the presence and intensity of collinear relations among the regression data and help to identify the variables involved in each; and pinpoint the estimated coefficients that are potentially most adversely affected. The primary emphasis of these contributions is on diagnostics, but suggestions for remedial action are given and illustrated. 1980 (0 471-05856-4) 292 pp. Applied Regression Analysis Second Edition Norman Draper and Harry Smith Featuring a significant expansion of material reflecting recent advances, here is a complete and up-to-date introduction to the fundamentals of regression analysis, focusing on understanding the latest concepts and applications of these methods. The authors thoroughly explore the fitting and checking of both linear and nonlinear regression models, using small or large data sets and pocket or high-speed computing equipment. Features added to this Second Edition include the practical implications of linear regression; the Durbin-Watson test for serial correlation; families of transformations; inverse, ridge, latent root and robust regression; and nonlinear growth models. Includes many new exercises and worked examples. 1981 (0 471-02995-5) 709 pp.

Author: Richard Thomas Curtin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107004691
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 365

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Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.

Author: United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 176

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Author: United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Legislative hearings
Languages : en
Pages : 1728

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Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 9783030139315
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.