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Author: Andrew Kumiega Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
This paper investigates the factors that drove the U.S. equity market returns from 2007 through early 2010. The period was highlighted by volatile energy and commodity prices, the collapse of insurance and banking firms, extreme implied volatility and a subsequent rally in the overall market. To extract the driving factors, we decompose the returns of the S&P 500 sector ETFs into statistically independent signals using independent component analysis. We find that the generated factors have interesting financial interpretations and are consistent with the major economic themes of the period. We find that there are two sets of general market betas during the period along with a dominant factor for energy and materials sector. In addition, we find that the EGARCH model which accommodates asymmetric responses between returns and volatility can plausibly fit the high levels of variance during the crash. Finally, estimated correlations dropped when commodity prices moved higher, but then spiked when the S&P 500 crashed in late 2008.
Author: Andrew Kumiega Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
This paper investigates the factors that drove the U.S. equity market returns from 2007 through early 2010. The period was highlighted by volatile energy and commodity prices, the collapse of insurance and banking firms, extreme implied volatility and a subsequent rally in the overall market. To extract the driving factors, we decompose the returns of the S&P 500 sector ETFs into statistically independent signals using independent component analysis. We find that the generated factors have interesting financial interpretations and are consistent with the major economic themes of the period. We find that there are two sets of general market betas during the period along with a dominant factor for energy and materials sector. In addition, we find that the EGARCH model which accommodates asymmetric responses between returns and volatility can plausibly fit the high levels of variance during the crash. Finally, estimated correlations dropped when commodity prices moved higher, but then spiked when the S&P 500 crashed in late 2008.
Author: Dinghai Xu Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In this paper, we explore the use of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) from the field of signal processing to model and estimate the dynamics of multivariate volatilities of financial asset returns in the GARCH framework. The resulting ICA-GARCH approach is shown to provide a computationally tractable method for constructing Value at Risk (VaR) of portfolios consisting of a large number of assets that are typically characterized by nonlinearity and nonnormality. In addition, it is also shown to be effective in capturing the time-varying features of volatilities and is more stable than other comparable models.
Author: Jiuping Xu Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319933515 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 1752
Book Description
This proceedings book is divided in 2 Volumes and 8 Parts. Part I is dedicated to Decision Support System, which is about the information system that supports business or organizational decision-making activities; Part II is on Computing Methodology, which is always used to provide the most effective algorithm for numerical solutions of various modeling problems; Part III presents Information Technology, which is the application of computers to store, study, retrieve, transmit and manipulate data, or information in the context of a business or other enterprise; Part IV is dedicated to Data Analysis, which is a process of inspecting, cleansing, transforming, and modeling data with the goal of discovering useful information, suggesting conclusions, and supporting decision-making; Part V presents papers on Operational Management, which is about the plan, organization, implementation and control of the operation process; Part VI is on Project Management, which is about the initiating, planning, executing, controlling, and closing the work of a team to achieve specific goals and meet specific success criteria at the specified time in the field of engineering; Part VII presents Green Supply Chain, which is about the management of the flow of goods and services based on the concept of “low-carbon”; Part VIII is focused on Industry Strategy Management, which refers to the decision-making and management art of an industry or organization in a long-term and long-term development direction, objectives, tasks and policies, as well as resource allocation.
Author: Riccardo Rebonato Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119995639 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 308
Book Description
This book presents a major innovation in the interest rate space. It explains a financially motivated extension of the LIBOR Market model which accurately reproduces the prices for plain vanilla hedging instruments (swaptions and caplets) of all strikes and maturities produced by the SABR model. The authors show how to accurately recover the whole of the SABR smile surface using their extension of the LIBOR market model. This is not just a new model, this is a new way of option pricing that takes into account the need to calibrate as accurately as possible to the plain vanilla reference hedging instruments and the need to obtain prices and hedges in reasonable time whilst reproducing a realistic future evolution of the smile surface. It removes the hard choice between accuracy and time because the framework that the authors provide reproduces today's market prices of plain vanilla options almost exactly and simultaneously gives a reasonable future evolution for the smile surface. The authors take the SABR model as the starting point for their extension of the LMM because it is a good model for European options. The problem, however with SABR is that it treats each European option in isolation and the processes for the various underlyings (forward and swap rates) do not talk to each other so it isn't obvious how to relate these processes into the dynamics of the whole yield curve. With this new model, the authors bring the dynamics of the various forward rates and stochastic volatilities under a single umbrella. To ensure the absence of arbitrage they derive drift adjustments to be applied to both the forward rates and their volatilities. When this is completed, complex derivatives that depend on the joint realisation of all relevant forward rates can now be priced. Contents THE THEORETICAL SET-UP The Libor Market model The SABR Model The LMM-SABR Model IMPLEMENTATION AND CALIBRATION Calibrating the LMM-SABR model to Market Caplet prices Calibrating the LMM/SABR model to Market Swaption Prices Calibrating the Correlation Structure EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE The Empirical problem Estimating the volatility of the forward rates Estimating the correlation structure Estimating the volatility of the volatility HEDGING Hedging the Volatility Structure Hedging the Correlation Structure Hedging in conditions of market stress
Author: Christian L. Dunis Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470871342 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 426
Book Description
This book provides a manual on quantitative financial analysis. Focusing on advanced methods for modelling financial markets in the context of practical financial applications, it will cover data, software and techniques that will enable the reader to implement and interpret quantitative methodologies, specifically for trading and investment. Includes contributions from an international team of academics and quantitative asset managers from Morgan Stanley, Barclays Global Investors, ABN AMRO and Credit Suisse First Boston. Fills the gap for a book on applied quantitative investment & trading models Provides details of how to combine various models to manage and trade a portfolio
Author: Torben Gustav Andersen Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540712976 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1045
Book Description
The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.
Author: Jin-Chuan Duan Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642172547 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 791
Book Description
Any financial asset that is openly traded has a market price. Except for extreme market conditions, market price may be more or less than a “fair” value. Fair value is likely to be some complicated function of the current intrinsic value of tangible or intangible assets underlying the claim and our assessment of the characteristics of the underlying assets with respect to the expected rate of growth, future dividends, volatility, and other relevant market factors. Some of these factors that affect the price can be measured at the time of a transaction with reasonably high accuracy. Most factors, however, relate to expectations about the future and to subjective issues, such as current management, corporate policies and market environment, that could affect the future financial performance of the underlying assets. Models are thus needed to describe the stochastic factors and environment, and their implementations inevitably require computational finance tools.
Author: Luc Bauwens Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118272056 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 566
Book Description
A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author: Xinyu Song Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
In this dissertation, we present the topic on volatility analysis with combined discrete-time and continuous-time models by employing low-frequency, high-frequency and option data. We first investigate the traditional low-frequency approach for volatility analysis that frequently adopts generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) type models and modern high-frequency approach for volatility estimation that often employs realized volatility type estimators, examples include multi-scale realized volatility estimators, pre-averaging realized volatility estimators and kernel realized volatility estimators. We introduce a new model for volatility analysis by combining low-frequency and high-frequency approaches. The proposed model is an Ito diffusion process where the instantaneous volatility depends on integrated volatility and squared log return. When the model is restricted to integer times, conditional volatility of the process adopts an analogous structure with the one seen in a standard GARCH model and includes one additional innovation: the integrated volatility. The proposed model is named as generalized unified GARCH-Ito model. Parameter estimation is built on the marriage of a quasi-likelihood function obtained based on conditional volatility structure from the proposed model and common realized volatility estimators obtained based on high-frequency financial data. To improve the performance of proposed estimators, we also provide the option of incorporating option data by adopting a joint quasi-likelihood function. We study the asymptotic behaviors of proposed estimators and conduct a simulation study that confirms proposed estimators have good finite sample statistical performance. An empirical study has been carried out to demonstrate the ease of implementation of the proposed model in daily volatility estimation.
Author: Marco Corazza Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 1800615221 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 429
Book Description
We wrote this book to help financial experts and investors to understand the state of the art of artificial intelligence and machine learning in finance. But first, what is artificial intelligence? The foundations of artificial intelligence lie in the human desire to automate. Often this desire has had foundations in grand civilization-defining visions or economic needs, such as the Antikythera mechanism, circa 200 BCE. Considered to be the oldest known example of an analog computer, it is thought that the mechanism automated the prediction of the positions of the sun, the moon, and the planets to assist in navigation.No matter the specific industry or application, AI has become a new engine of growth. Both finance and banking have been leveraging AI technologies and algorithms, applying them to automate routine tasks, procedures and forecasting, thereby improving overall customer experience.The topics covered in this book make it an invaluable resource for academics, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners alike who want to understand how AI has affected the banking and financial industries and how it will continue to change them in the years to come.
Author: Andrew Kumiega
Author: Andrew Kumiega
Author: Dinghai Xu
Author: Jiuping Xu
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Author: Christian L. Dunis
Author: Torben Gustav Andersen
Author: Jin-Chuan Duan
Author: Luc Bauwens
Author: Xinyu Song
Author: Marco Corazza