Improved Index Insurance Design and Yield Estimation Using a Dynamic Factor Forecasting Approach PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Improved Index Insurance Design and Yield Estimation Using a Dynamic Factor Forecasting Approach PDF full book. Access full book title Improved Index Insurance Design and Yield Estimation Using a Dynamic Factor Forecasting Approach by Hong Li. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Hong Li Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
Accurate crop yield forecasting is central to effective risk management for many stakeholders, including farmers, insurers, and governments, in various practices, such as crop management, sales and marketing, insurance policy design, premium rate setting, and reserving. This paper rst investigates an innovative approach of yield forecasting using a dynamic factor model. Based on the proposed approach, we then design an enhanced weather index-based insurance (IBI) policy. The dynamic factor approach is motivated by its ability to effectively summarize the information in a large set of explanatory variables with common factors of a much lower dimension. This makes it possible to use an extensive set of variables in crop yield prediction without worrying about identication issues. Using both county-level and state-level crop production data from the state of Illinois, U.S., the empirical results show that the dynamic factor approach produces more accurate in- and out-of-sample forecasting results compared to the classical statistical models. The empirical results also support that the proposed IBI policy based on the dynamic forecasting model has small basis risk. This, in turn, greatly improves the IBI's hedge effectiveness against agricultural production as well as increases its practicality as an insurance policy for agriculture.
Author: Hong Li Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
Accurate crop yield forecasting is central to effective risk management for many stakeholders, including farmers, insurers, and governments, in various practices, such as crop management, sales and marketing, insurance policy design, premium rate setting, and reserving. This paper rst investigates an innovative approach of yield forecasting using a dynamic factor model. Based on the proposed approach, we then design an enhanced weather index-based insurance (IBI) policy. The dynamic factor approach is motivated by its ability to effectively summarize the information in a large set of explanatory variables with common factors of a much lower dimension. This makes it possible to use an extensive set of variables in crop yield prediction without worrying about identication issues. Using both county-level and state-level crop production data from the state of Illinois, U.S., the empirical results show that the dynamic factor approach produces more accurate in- and out-of-sample forecasting results compared to the classical statistical models. The empirical results also support that the proposed IBI policy based on the dynamic forecasting model has small basis risk. This, in turn, greatly improves the IBI's hedge effectiveness against agricultural production as well as increases its practicality as an insurance policy for agriculture.
Author: Amy Finkelstein Publisher: Columbia University Press ISBN: 0231538685 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 161
Book Description
Addressing the challenge of covering heath care expenses—while minimizing economic risks. Moral hazard—the tendency to change behavior when the cost of that behavior will be borne by others—is a particularly tricky question when considering health care. Kenneth J. Arrow’s seminal 1963 paper on this topic (included in this volume) was one of the first to explore the implication of moral hazard for health care, and Amy Finkelstein—recognized as one of the world’s foremost experts on the topic—here examines this issue in the context of contemporary American health care policy. Drawing on research from both the original RAND Health Insurance Experiment and her own research, including a 2008 Health Insurance Experiment in Oregon, Finkelstein presents compelling evidence that health insurance does indeed affect medical spending and encourages policy solutions that acknowledge and account for this. The volume also features commentaries and insights from other renowned economists, including an introduction by Joseph P. Newhouse that provides context for the discussion, a commentary from Jonathan Gruber that considers provider-side moral hazard, and reflections from Joseph E. Stiglitz and Kenneth J. Arrow. “Reads like a fireside chat among a group of distinguished, articulate health economists.” —Choice
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 030917340X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 189
Book Description
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Author: Chris Chatfield Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1420036203 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 281
Book Description
From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 030946529X Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 149
Book Description
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the primary statistical data collection agency within the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). NASS conducts hundreds of surveys each year and prepares reports covering virtually every aspect of U.S. agriculture. Among the small-area estimates produced by NASS are county-level estimates for crops (planted acres, harvested acres, production, and yield by commodity) and for cash rental rates for irrigated cropland, nonirrigated cropland, and permanent pastureland. Key users of these county-level estimates include USDA's Farm Services Agency (FSA) and Risk Management Agency (RMA), which use the estimates as part of their processes for distributing farm subsidies and providing farm insurance, respectively. Improving Crop Estimates by Integrating Multiple Data Sources assesses county-level crop and cash rents estimates, and offers recommendations on methods for integrating data sources to provide more precise county-level estimates of acreage and yield for major crops and of cash rents by land use. This report considers technical issues involved in using the available data sources, such as methods for integrating the data, the assumptions underpinning the use of each source, the robustness of the resulting estimates, and the properties of desirable estimates of uncertainty.
Author: Söhnke M. Bartram Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation ISBN: 195292703X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 95
Book Description
Artificial intelligence (AI) has grown in presence in asset management and has revolutionized the sector in many ways. It has improved portfolio management, trading, and risk management practices by increasing efficiency, accuracy, and compliance. In particular, AI techniques help construct portfolios based on more accurate risk and return forecasts and more complex constraints. Trading algorithms use AI to devise novel trading signals and execute trades with lower transaction costs. AI also improves risk modeling and forecasting by generating insights from new data sources. Finally, robo-advisors owe a large part of their success to AI techniques. Yet the use of AI can also create new risks and challenges, such as those resulting from model opacity, complexity, and reliance on data integrity.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521405737 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 574
Book Description
A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Author: Salim Lamine Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0323914640 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 555
Book Description
Remote Sensing in Precision Agriculture: Transforming Scientific Advancement into Innovation compiles the latest applications of remote sensing in agriculture using spaceborne, airborne and drones’ geospatial data. The book presents case studies, new algorithms and the latest methods surrounding crop sown area estimation, determining crop health status, assessment of vegetation dynamics, crop diseases identification, crop yield estimation, soil properties, drone image analysis for crop damage assessment, and other issues in precision agriculture. This book is ideal for those seeking to explore and implement remote sensing in an effective and efficient manner with its compendium of scientifically and technologically sound information. Presents a well-integrated collection of chapters, with quality, consistency and continuity Provides the latest RS techniques in Precision Agriculture that are addressed by leading experts Includes detailed, yet geographically global case studies that can be easily understood, reproduced or implemented Covers geospatial data, with codes available through shared links
Author: Hong Li
Author: Hong Li
Author: Jacques Lussier
Author: Amy Finkelstein
Author: National Research Council
Author: Chris Chatfield
Author: Mark Goldburd
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: Söhnke M. Bartram
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Author: Salim Lamine