Implicit Transfers in IMF Lending, 1973-2003 PDF Download

Author: Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Loans
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Author: Ms.Priyadarshani Joshi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451860276
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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We compute realized transfers implicit in IMF lending from 1973-2003, based on 2003 IMF repayment projections and promised debt relief. IMF lending rates to high-and middleincome countries fell short of industrial country borrowing rates by 30-150 basis points over the period as a whole, but exhibited a small premium after 1987. The subsidy received by low-income and HIPC countries was much higher (400-600 basis points, respectively). In 2002 NPV terms, cumulative transfers were 12-15 percent of 2002 GDP for the HIPCs, 2-3 percent for low income countries, and less than 3⁄4 percent for the emerging market countries.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589064478
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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This paper focuses on expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation, which continued to be debated throughout the post-war period. Concerns rose during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in developing countries were contradicted when, during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates began to decline rapidly. In policy-oriented institutions (and in most businesses and individual decision making), policymaking decisions are often guided by projections and forward-looking indicators. The case of Michael Mussa has been one of great anticipation, and of great accomplishment, and all the early optimistic forecasts about him have turned out to be correct. Within the sphere of economics, undoubtedly the most famous and widely used forecast—one, incidentally, that thus far has often been incorrect—is that based on the Malthusian doctrine of the relationship between resources and population.

Author: Federico Sturzenegger
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262195534
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 399

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Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.

Author: Edwin M Truman
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0881324418
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 575

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Based on a conference held in September 2005 on the future of the International Monetary Fund, this important new book includes an overview of the challenges facing the IMF today. In addition, the authors offer a wide range of views on four areas: the international monetary system and the IMF (with an emphasis on enforcing and reforming the rules), governance (including representation), financial resources (the need for additional resources and how they should be supplied), and financing (including the role of IMF financing and the need for new facilities).

Author: Ms.Emine Boz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451871945
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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This paper builds a model of a sovereign borrower that has access to credit from private sector creditors and an IFI. Private sector creditors and the IFI offer different debt contracts that are modelled based on the institutional frameworks of these two types of debt. We analyze the decisions of a sovereign on how to allocate its borrowing needs between these two types of creditors, and when to default on its debt to the private sector creditor. The numerical analysis shows that, consistent with the data; the model predicts countercyclical IFI debt along with procyclical commercial debt flows, also matching other features of the data such as frequency of IFI borrowing and mean IFI debt stock.

Author: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 78

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Despite a formal ‘no-bailout clause,’ we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to a whopping 43% (Greece) of 2010 output during the Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed differences across countries. We characterize bailout size and likelihood as a function of the economic fundamentals (economic activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a ‘Southern view’ of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a ‘Northern view’ (transfers weaken fiscal discipline). While a stronger no-bailout commitment reduces risk-shifting, it may not be optimal from the perspective of the creditor country, even ex-ante, if it increases the risk of immediate insolvency for high debt countries. Hence, the model provides a potential justification for the often decried policy of ‘kicking the can down the road.’ Mapping the model to the estimated transfers, we find that the main purpose of the outsized Greek bailout was to prevent an exit from the eurozone and possible contagion. Bailouts to avoid sovereign default were comparatively modest.

Author: Olivier Jeanne
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial crises
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : International finance
Languages : en
Pages : 444

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Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333737
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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Since Fund financial support helps reduce the expected cost of crises, members and markets might engage in greater risk-taking; in other words, moral hazard. Empirically, however, the Fund’s rate of charge has adequately reflected the default risk it faces and the high political, social, and economic costs of crises are likely to limit debtor moral hazard. As regards the design of a contingent, crisis prevention instrument, the use of qualification standards can help address issues of debtor moral hazard directly. In addition, the small amounts of Fund financial support -- in relation to a country's financial needs -- suggest that creditor moral hazard is likely to be limited. While existing empirical tests are far from definitive, the paper suggests that creditor moral hazard is less likely to be a concern after the Fund sent the signal in mid-1998 that it would interrupt support when program success is unlikely.