Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine on Global Food Security PDF Download

Author: Hans van Meijl
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789464472417
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to exacerbate food insecurity around the world as both countries are a major exporter of grains and other agricultural products. In this model based scenario study, medium-term effects of the war on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, and food security are quantified. The scenarios focus on the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, consequences of trade sanction measures against Russia, and related higher energy prices. From a food security perspective, we can conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food prices could become a problem for a part of the population that has a low income and spends a large part of their food on cereals. For some countries highly dependent on imports of Ukrainian and Russian cereals like Egypt, Turkey and Middle East, food availability will come under some pressure. Food security impacts are very minor for the EU, as food availability is not a problem in the EU and in general people spend a small part on cereal-based food products.

Author: Glauber, Joseph W.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Book Description
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sparking fears of a global food crisis, IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address the crisis. From the first moments of the conflict, a new IFPRI blog series provided critical information and insights into the impacts on food security, caused by rising food, fertilizer, and fuel prices and trade disruptions, for vulnerable countries and regions. This book is a compilation of those blog posts, which include analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems.

Author: Abay, Kibrom A.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 23

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Book Description
This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.

Author: Arndt, Channing
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 15

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Book Description
Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans in response to concerns about commodity shortages, have also contributed to rising prices. Figure 1 examines price changes in key food and nonfood commodities between June 2021 and June 2022. The period of interest for this study is June 2021 to April 2022. Over this period, palm oil and wheat prices increased by 68 and 113 percent in nominal terms, respectively. When deflated by the US Consumer Price Index, these price changes equate to 56 and 100 percent in real terms. Wide variation exists across food products, with nominal maize prices increasing by 19 per-cent (or 11 percent in real terms), and rice prices declining by 13 percent (or 7 percent in real terms) over the same period. Prices of nonfood commodities also rose substantially. Whereas crude oil prices rose 44 percent (or 34 percent in real terms), natural gas and fertilizer prices both doubled (or 88 and 101 percent in real terms, respectively). As shown in the breakdown in the bar chart, most of the price growth occurred after the start of the war in Ukraine, except for fertilizer.

Author: Thibbotuwawa, Manoj
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 9

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Book Description
The Ukraine War has had major implications for food security and food systems across the world given the important role both Russia and Ukraine play in global food, fertilizer, and energy markets. Russia and Ukraine together supply about 12% of global agricultural exports on a caloric basis and over 30% of global wheat exports.1 Fertilizer and energy markets experienced rising prices and supply disruptions as well. The Russia-Ukraine conflict heavily impacted food security in Sri Lanka which is dependent on imports from the Caspian region. The impact of this shock has been compounded for Sri Lanka which has been suffering from a severe economic crisis due to a lack of foreign reserves, a debt default, high inflation, import restrictions, and shortages of critical goods and services. These compound crises have halted Sri Lanka’s progress on economic development and its achievement of the SDGs. Progress had been significant with the share of undernourished population declining from 16.7% in 2001 to 3.4% in 2020.2 During the same period the prevalence of stunting declined from 20.6% to 16%.3 The prevalence of wasting among children under age five declined from 15.9% in 2000 to 15.1% in 2016. Sri Lanka was ranked 65th out of 116 countries on the Global Hunger Index and 77th out of 113 countries on the Global Food Security Index in 2022 suggesting the need for some improvements in the food system. The latest food security assessment by the World Food Program (WFP) notes that about 30% of the population of 22 million (6.26 Mn people) are food insecure.4 Further, most households are regularly employing food-based coping strategies such as eating less preferred and less nutritious food and reducing the amount of food they eat. Further, an estimated 200,000 households are using emergency livelihood coping strategies that are likely to severely impact their income-generating activities and it is anticipated that more people are turning to these coping strategies as the crisis deepens. Against this backdrop, this policy brief explores the impacts of the evolving crisis in Ukraine on the nexus of poverty, agriculture, and food security in Sri Lanka and the possible avenues for mitigating the negative implica-tions of export restrictions, rising import costs, and inflation.

Author: Lacina Balma
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains due to reduced production, exports, and increased trade costs. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa. We use a long-run general equilibrium trade model and study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: 1) Ending exports of Ukrainian wheat and other cereals for food production, such as corn or sorghum. 2) Russia's potential ban on exports of grains and fertilizers, and 3) The impact of increased trade costs due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea. The model simulations show the conflict will severely compromise food security in Africa. We document important cross-country heterogeneity in the severity of impacts.

Author: Naveen Tahir
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The Russian Ukraine crisis poses an immense threat to the world's economy, which is already tangled in the shackles of the Covid-19 and the economic recovery seems to be happening slowly. The outbreak of Covid 19 was declared a pandemic and public health emergency. Rising inflation, unemployment and disrupted global supply chains were the already existing issues. At the same time, the Russian Ukraine Crisis has amplified all these economic challenges and the repercussions of this crisis are impacting the entire world. The current study draws attention to these issues by building a CGE framework. GTAP database was used and modified to simulate the twin challenges faced globally. The findings vindicate the loss of welfare, incomes, and consumption in all the regions and food sectors are mostly affected. Major sufferers include the MENA region's countries and some of the South Asian and Southeast Asian Economies. The policy implications suggested in the last can be a method of rescue and relief for the losses faced by the twin challenges in terms of food security.

Author: SJ, Balaji
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 12

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Book Description
Russia’s war on Ukraine shows no signs of subsidence. Its economic and societal adversities have already been felt worldwide but keep evolving, with food and energy being the most affected. Low-income, food-deficit nations importing from these two countries – many of which are in Northern Africa and Western and Central Asia – face critical challenges. The South Asian region, which has grappled with surging commodity prices and supply constraints even before the war, is likely to witness further inflation with rising food and oil prices. India is home to around 18% of the world’s population and accounts for 74% of the South Asian population. It is predicted to be the fastest-growing big economy this year. The country’s central bank (RBI) predicts that GDP will grow by 7.5% in FY 2022-23 (RBI, 2022), while many international organizations forecast growth between 6.4% and 8.2% (ADB, 2022; IMF, 2022; United Nations, 2022; World Bank, 2022). Still, in the wake of the ill effects of COVID-19, the country’s dependence on imports such as oil, fertilizers, and edible oils, and given surging domestic food and nonfood inflation in recent months, raises concerns about economic stability and possible interventions that might curtail fragility. The country consumes around 5 million barrels of crude oil daily but imports over 89% of its requirement from overseas. Crude oil prices have increased by 27% in just four months since the start of the war (February- June 2022). Edible oils have similarly increased, with palm and soybean oil prices rising by around 14% and 18%, respectively. The price of sunflower seed oil has increased by 42%, of which 86% originates from Ukraine and Russia. Fertilizer import dependency from the conflict regions is also sizeable. Russia was the 5th largest supplier of fertilizers to India in 2021-22, and Ukraine and Belarus were the 9th and 10th largest suppliers. The rise in prices of both finished fertilizers and fertilizer inputs has prompted the Government to double the fertilizer subsidy budgeted earlier this year. This policy brief investigates India's susceptibility to the war's disruptions and higher prices for commodities where import dependence is high. It then discusses potential income, food, and nutritional impacts on farmers, the poor, and the vulnerable. It also evaluates the Government’s policy measures such as subsidization, social safety nets, and trade diversification to reduce the impact of the war. Finally, it explores the market opportunities the conflict has created and the required structural reforms that would equip the country to handle such shocks in the future.

Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251366527
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Book Description
FAO is deeply concerned about the food security situation in Ukraine. The war that began on 24 February 2022 has caused extensive damage and loss of life in key population centres, spread across rural areas, and sparked massive displacement. It is clear that the war has resulted in a massive, and deteriorating, food security challenge. It has already significantly disrupted livelihoods during the agricultural growing season, through physical access constraints and damage to homes, productive assets, agricultural land, roads, and other civilian infrastructure. It is uncertain whether Ukraine will be able to harvest existing crops, plant new ones or sustain livestock production as the conflict evolves. As insecurity persists, and both local and national supply chains are disrupted, people are likely to fall deeper into emergency levels of hunger and malnutrition. Noting that the immediate food security dimension of this conflict is related to food access and not food availability, agricultural production must be allowed to resume immediately and safely to avoid further potential impact on food security in Ukraine – and beyond – in the coming days, weeks and months.

Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 925136141X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
The Russian Federation and Ukraine are among the most important producers of agricultural commodities in the world. Both countries are net exporters of agricultural products, and they both play leading supply roles in global markets of foodstuffs and fertilizers, where exportable supplies are often concentrated in a handful of countries. This concentration could expose these markets to increased vulnerability to shocks and volatility. Many countries of the NENA region are heavily dependent on imported foodstuff and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine; and thus, the current conflict puts the region at risk of shortening of food supply from Russia and Ukraine as well as raising food prices as a result of the disturbances in post-COVID-19.