Impacts of EU Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector PDF Download

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ISBN: 9789279515262
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Languages : en
Pages : 183

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Book Description
In this study, we have analysed the EU’s trade agreements on the basis of trade agreements with different characteristics: The trade agreements of the EU with Mexico ("first generation" trade agreement), South Korea (new generation Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreement DCFTA) and Switzerland (specific sectorial agreements). The purpose was to assess the economic, social and environmental impacts of the agreements and to identify the main factors that have fostered and impeded the development of EU agri-food trade. To this end, we have collected data on global bilateral trade before and after the trade agreements entered into force on a detailed product level. We have also collected data on the preferential access granted by the trade agreements. We use a triple-difference model that controls for a range of factors that influence bilateral trade between the trading partners, and the model thus estimates the isolated impact of the agreements. We supplement the quantitative analysis with five case studies (Danish pigmeat exports to South Korea, Polish sugar confectionary exports to South Korea, French wine exports to Mexico, EU citrus fruits imports from Mexico and German cheese exports to Switzerland) to get insights into the broader impacts of the agreements on actors of the agri-food supply chain. Overall, the analysis finds that the trade agreements with Mexico, South Korea and Switzerland have increased EU agri-food exports by more than 1 bn. EUR and raised value added in the agri-food sector by 600 mn. EUR. The increased exports have supported almost 20,000 jobs in the agri-food sector, of which 13,700 jobs are in primary agriculture. There have also been benefits to other actors in the agri-food supply chain. Value added in other sectors has increased by more than 400 mn. EUR and an additional 7,700 jobs in the EU have been supported by the agreements. Most of these jobs are in wholesale and retail trade and in other business activities related to agri-food production and export. The trade agreements have also increased EU imports and given EU consumers access to agri-food products at lower prices. When production in the EU increases, CO2 emissions in the EU also increase. For a given level of consumption, this production replaces production in the trading partner or a third country, and the total environmental impact will depend on the environmental efficiency in the EU relative to this country as well as the environmental costs of transportation. The analysis shows that the trade agreements have ensured that EU exporters compete on more equal terms against exporters from third countries. An important lesson from this is that, looking ahead, continuously benchmarking of third countries’ trade negotiations with main EU trading partners and an efficient trade negotiation process with limited delays can lower the risk of foregone trade with other trading partners. Rising protectionism both in the EU and in main trading partners may limit trade in the future and hinder negotiations of new trade agreements. It is therefore important to continuously evaluate the impacts of existing trade agreements and use the results to engage in public debate about the pros and cons of trade liberalisation. It is also important to keep in mind that impacts differ across member states and sectors, and aggregate EU impacts may hide large disparities across individual actors in the EU agri-food supply chain.