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Author: Breisinger, Clemens Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.
Author: Breisinger, Clemens Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.
Author: Breisinger, Clemens Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 11
Book Description
Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors.
Author: Breisinger, Clemens Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 6
Book Description
Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.
Author: Caroline Krafft Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0192663801 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 415
Book Description
The Egyptian economy has faced many challenges in the decade since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. Not only was job creation anaemic from 2012 to 2018, but new jobs were also of low-quality, characterized by informality and vulnerability to economic shocks. These challenges pushed many in Egypt, especially the most vulnerable, into a more precarious labor market situation. Then, in the midst of economic recovery brought on by tough reform measures adopted in 2016 and 2017, the country was hit by the widespread disruption of a global pandemic. This book examines the plight of Egypt's most vulnerable groups by focusing on the intersection of gender and economic vulnerability in the labor market. With this emphasis on vulnerability and a lens that is sensitive to gender differences and inequities, the contributors to this volume use data from the most recent wave of a unique longitudinal survey to illuminate different aspects of Egyptians' lives. The aspects they explore include labor supply behavior, the ability to access good quality and well-paying jobs, the evolution of wages and wage inequality, the school-to-work transition of youth, the decline in public sector employment, international and internal migration, the situation of rural women, access to social protection, food security, vulnerability to shocks and coping mechanisms, health status, and access to health care services. These analyses are prescient in understanding the axes of vulnerability in Egyptian society that became all too salient during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Author: Hanaa Kheir-El-Din Publisher: American University in Cairo Press ISBN: 1617975257 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 447
Book Description
The Egyptian economy has undergone several reforms since the early 1990s. However, it was not until recently that the reform process picked up speed and intensity. Key initiatives included shifting to a flexible exchange rate regime, liberalizing trade, revising and reducing the tariff structure, and improving the income tax system. Plans are underway to restructure the financial sector and privatize most state-owned enterprises. This volume aims to evaluate the impact of recent reform policies and highlight priority areas for further reform at the macroeconomic and institutional levels. Topics addressed include growth, distribution, and poverty reduction; monetary policy and the impact of exchange rate liberalization; unemployment and job creation; and the new pension system. The objective is to contribute to ongoing efforts to stimulate growth and employment, ensure fiscal sustainability, improve the external sector, and address issues related to poverty and income distribution. The volume focuses on the health and energy sectors in Egypt, with the aim of assessing each sector in three areas: financing, organization, and policy management, in order to suggest ideas for reform in light of international experience. Contributors: Ragui Assaad, Omneia Helmy, Abdallah Shehata Khattab, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Aart Kraay, Heba El-Laithy, Nihal El-Megharbel, Mai El Mossallamy, Tarek Abdelfattah Moursi, Sarah El Nashar, Tarek Selim, Enas Zakareya.
Author: Hanāʼ Khayr al-Dīn Publisher: American Univ in Cairo Press ISBN: 9789774161544 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 356
Book Description
This volume aims to evaluate the impact of recent reform policies and highlight priority areas for further reform at the macroeconomic and institutional levels. Topics addressed include growth, distribution, and poverty reduction, unemployment and job creation, and the new pension system.
Author: Weltbank Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is causing the most severe global health and economic crisis in at least seven decades. In Egypt, the disruptions caused by the pandemic started in March 2020, and has since interrupted a period of macroeconomic stability, characterized by relatively high growth, improved fiscal accounts, and a comfortable level of foreign reserves. Yet, the pandemic also hit as longstanding challenges continued to persist, notably the government's elevated debt-to-GDP ratio (despite its significant reduction in recent years), sluggish revenue-mobilization and the below-potential performance of non-oil merchandise exports and non-oil FDI. The fiscal, monetary and energy sector reforms implemented in recent years, along with the emergency measures undertaken by authorities in response to the COVID-19 crisis are so far helping Egypt weather the shock. Indeed, average real growth has remained positive during FY2019/20 and foreign reserves continue to be rather ample. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has inevitably caused job and income losses, posing additional strains on Egyptian households' livelihoods, and is thus exacerbating the long-standing challenge of job-creation in Egypt, notably in the formal private sector. The in-focus chapter of this report is therefore dedicated to the topic of jobs and economic transformation. The analysis of this chapter shows that the economic transformation process has been slow-moving in Egypt, with employment shares increasing either in low value-added sectors, or in sectors that have experienced a decline in productivity (value-added per worker). Hence, the Egyptian economy has not been able to generate high-earning jobs, at scale. Going forward, for businesses to expand and create sufficient and high-quality employment opportunities, a three-pronged approach will be necessary: (i) Sustaining macroeconomic stability and overall policy predictability whilst incentivizing domestic savings to finance investments. (ii) Getting the enabling environment right to create attractive opportunities for domestic and foreign investments. (iii) Upgrading human capital and firm capabilities to fast-track the economic transformation process in Egypt and to strengthen the country's resilience against such severe shocks.
Author: Abdelaziz, Fatma Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 21
Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis is having strong impacts on the Egyptian economy, but these impacts differ strongly across sectors.1 Based on scenarios run using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Egypt’s economy, COVID-19 is estimated to have resulted in an 8.6 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter of FY 2019/20 (April to June). The services sector was hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry, which contracted by 8.3 percent. Agriculture was the most resilient sector, although there are large differences in the relative impact of COVID across agricultural subsectors.
Author: Ashraf Mishrif Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan ISBN: 9789819743667 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book addresses the impact and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most challenging public health risks to human wellbeing, on the economic activities and behaviors of Middle Eastern countries during and in the aftermath of the pandemic. It provides detailed examination of how the global and Middle Eastern economies incurred significant financial and economic damages, human losses, and hundreds of millions of people losing their jobs. The analysis of this book is entirely based on primary data and a mix of quantitative and qualitative research methods to accurately account for the effects of the pandemic on the economy, finance, and tourism. While providing in-depth analysis of the macro and micro economy at global and national levels, the book investigates the impact of the pandemic on human behavior including household and water consumptions in the GCC countries, as well as offering potential green strategies for sustainable recovery in the post-pandemic era. As well as explaining the negative effects of the pandemic on the tourism and hospitality industries, the book also offers some positive outcomes from the pandemic, most notably in the innovation and IT sector and creative approaches in banking practices and services to ensure financial stability and sufficient liquidity in the market. Readers, students, researchers, industry practitioners and policy makers will benefit from the new insights offered by a diverse group of senior researchers and experts from across the world.
Author: Abay, Kibrom A. Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 8
Book Description
Evolving pieces of evidence show that services are hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, both globally and in Egypt. Employing Google search data, we examine the implications of COVID-19 on demand for various services in Egypt. • We find that demand for those services that require face-to-face interaction, including hotels and restaurants, air travel and tourism services, significantly dipped after Egypt detected the first COVID-19 case and more so after the Egyptian government introduced major restrictions and curfews. For instance, in the first two months of the outbreak of the pandemic, February and March, demand for hotel and restaurant services contracted by about 70 percent. • In contrast, demand for services that substitute or reduce personal interactions, such as information and communications technologies (ICT) and delivery services, have enjoyed a significant boost. Demand for ICT services tripled, while demand for delivery services doubled in the four months since the outbreak of the pandemic. • Intuitively, these results suggest that individuals and enterprises operating in these sectors are expected to experience heterogenous impacts and damages associated with the pandemic. Our results, along with other evolving evidence, reinforce that those services and sectors negatively affected by the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 deserve attention. • Finally, our analysis highlights the potential of near real-time "big data" to substitute and complement conventional data sources to estimate economic impacts and, hence, inform immediate and medium-term policy responses.
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Author: Caroline Krafft
Author: Hanaa Kheir-El-Din
Author: Hanāʼ Khayr al-Dīn
Author: Weltbank
Author: Abdelaziz, Fatma
Author: Ashraf Mishrif
Author: Abay, Kibrom A.