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Author: Ralph Chami Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0198853092 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 689
Book Description
Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States addresses the many issues involved and considers ways to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints.
Author: Ralph Chami Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0198853092 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 689
Book Description
Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States addresses the many issues involved and considers ways to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints.
Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513573683 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.
Author: Mario Mansour Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513508156 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
The purpose of this note is to provide a framework for improving tax policy design in fragile and conflict-affected states, which face political and institutional constraints. This note begins with an overview of experiences in revenue mobilization in fragile states, including relative to other country groups—in particular, nonfragile states and formerly fragile states; that is, countries that exited fragility during the period under study. A discussion follows of how the principles of tax policy design should be applied in fragile states, particularly the relative importance of the revenue objective vis-à-vis other objectives, such as equity and efficiency. The two sections that follow provide guidance on tax policy design in the emergency and consolidation phases, respectively, and discuss how governments can use tax policy to transition from one phase to another, eventually overcoming fragility. The note concludes with key lessons and a set of guiding principles for tax reform in fragile states.
Author: Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475584113 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513568817 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 74
Book Description
A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Author: Wim Naudé Publisher: OUP Oxford ISBN: 0191619647 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 232
Book Description
Overcoming state fragility is one of the most important international development objectives of the 21st century. Many fragile states have turned into failed states, where millions of people are caught in deprivation and seemingly hopeless conditions. Fragile states lack the authority, legitimacy, and capacity that a modern state needs to advance the development of its peoples, and present deep challenges for the design and implementation of development policy. For instance, how is aid to be designed and delivered in a way that will help people in fragile states if their governments lack capacity to absorb and use aid? And what can be done about adverse side-effects of fragile states on their neighbours and the global community, such as heightened insecurity, rising out-migration, displaced populations, and the destruction of natural resources? This book documents the far reaching global repercussions of state fragility and provides a timely contribution to the international discourse on three dimensions of fragile states: their causes, costs, and the responses required. It will appeal to scholars, policymakers, and donors who are concerned about conflict and development. Its aim is to contribute to our understanding of how strong and accountable states can be fostered-states where government and civil society progressively advance human wellbeing, underpin households' resilience in the face of shocks, and form effective partnerships to maximize the benefits of development assistance.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 151353968X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 84
Book Description
This evaluation assesses the IMF’s work on countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), addressing both (i) its engagement through surveillance, lending, and capacity development and (ii) the frameworks and procedures for its engagement. It finds that the IMF has provided unique and essential services to FCS to restore macroeconomic stability and rebuild core macroeconomic institutions as prerequisites for state building, playing a role in which no other institution can take its place. In this critical role, it is broadly acknowledged to have had a high impact. While the IMF has provided relatively little direct financing, it has catalyzed donor support through its assessment of a country’s economic policies and prospects. Notwithstanding this positive assessment, the IMF’s overall approach to its FCS work seems to have been conflicted. Not only has it failed consistently to make hard choices necessary to achieve full impact from its engagement in countries where success requires patient and dedicated attention over the long haul, but past efforts have not been sufficiently bold or adequately sustained, and the staff has tended to revert to treating fragile states using IMF-wide norms, rather than as countries needing special attention. The report proposes six recommendations to improve the effectiveness of the IMF’s FCS work: (i) to issue a statement of high-level commitment to FCS work for IMFC endorsement; (ii) to create an effective institutional mechanism with the mandate and authority to coordinate and champion such work; (iii) to develop comprehensive strategies for individual FCS; (iv) to adapt its lending toolkit to deliver more sustained financial support to FCS; (v) to take practical steps to increase the impact of its capacity development support to FCS; and (vi) to take steps to incentivize high-quality and experienced staff to work on individual FCS and find pragmatic ways of increasing field presence in high risk locations.
Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475535783 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Author: Daniel Gurara Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513529986 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association between cost inflation and public investment in a large sample of road construction projects in developing countries. Consistent with the presence of absorptive capacity constraints, our results show a non-linear U-shaped relationship between public investment and project costs. Unit costs increase once public investment is close to 10% of GDP. This threshold is lower (about 7% of GDP) in countries with low investment efficiency and, in general, the effect of investment scaling up on costs is especially strong during investment booms.
Author: Ralph Chami
Author: Ralph Chami
Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
Author: Mario Mansour
Author: Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Author: Wim Naudé
Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother
Author: Daniel Gurara
Author: International Monetary Fund