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Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Crown ISBN: 080413670X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Crown ISBN: 080413670X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Robert Fisk Publisher: Vintage ISBN: 0307428710 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 1415
Book Description
A sweeping and dramatic history of the last half century of conflict in the Middle East from an award-winning journalist who has covered the region for over forty years, The Great War for Civilisation unflinchingly chronicles the tragedy of the region from the Algerian Civil War to the Iranian Revolution; from the American hostage crisis in Beirut to the Iran-Iraq War; from the 1991 Gulf War to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. A book of searing drama as well as lucid, incisive analysis, The Great War for Civilisation is a work of major importance for today's world.
Author: G. Williams Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0230293190 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 453
Book Description
The story of the rise and fall of smallpox, one of the most savage killers in the history of mankind, and the only disease ever to be successfully exterminated (30 years ago next year) by a public health campaign.
Author: Patricia Keeton Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137277890 Category : Performing Arts Languages : en Pages : 265
Book Description
No other cinematic genre more sharply illustrates the contradictions of American society - notions about social class, politics, and socio-economic ideology - than the war film. This book examines the latest cycle of war films to reveal how they mediate and negotiate the complexities of war, class, and a military-political mission largely gone bad.
Author: David T. Courtwright Publisher: Belknap Press ISBN: 0674737377 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 337
Book Description
“A mind-blowing tour de force that unwraps the myriad objects of addiction that surround us...Intelligent, incisive, and sometimes grimly entertaining.” —Rod Phillips, author of Alcohol: A History “A fascinating history of corporate America’s efforts to shape our habits and desires.” —Vox We live in an age of addiction, from compulsive gaming and shopping to binge eating and opioid abuse. Sugar can be as habit-forming as cocaine, researchers tell us, and social media apps are deliberately hooking our kids. But what can we do to resist temptations that insidiously rewire our brains? A renowned expert on addiction, David Courtwright reveals how global enterprises have both created and catered to our addictions. The Age of Addiction chronicles the triumph of what he calls “limbic capitalism,” the growing network of competitive businesses targeting the brain pathways responsible for feeling, motivation, and long-term memory. “Compulsively readable...In crisp and playful prose and with plenty of needed humor, Courtwright has written a fascinating history of what we like and why we like it, from the first taste of beer in the ancient Middle East to opioids in West Virginia.” —American Conservative “A sweeping, ambitious account of the evolution of addiction...This bold, thought-provoking synthesis will appeal to fans of ‘big history’ in the tradition of Guns, Germs, and Steel.” —Publishers Weekly
Author: Nihad Hassan Publisher: Apress ISBN: 1484227999 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 302
Book Description
Use this hands-on guide to understand the ever growing and complex world of digital security. Learn how to protect yourself from digital crime, secure your communications, and become anonymous online using sophisticated yet practical tools and techniques. This book teaches you how to secure your online identity and personal devices, encrypt your digital data and online communications, protect cloud data and Internet of Things (IoT), mitigate social engineering attacks, keep your purchases secret, and conceal your digital footprint. You will understand best practices to harden your operating system and delete digital traces using the most widely used operating system, Windows. Digital Privacy and Security Using Windows offers a comprehensive list of practical digital privacy tutorials in addition to being a complete repository of free online resources and tools assembled in one place. The book helps you build a robust defense from electronic crime and corporate surveillance. It covers general principles of digital privacy and how to configure and use various security applications to maintain your privacy, such as TOR, VPN, and BitLocker. You will learn to encrypt email communications using Gpg4win and Thunderbird. What You’ll Learn Know the various parties interested in having your private data Differentiate between government and corporate surveillance, and the motivations behind each one Understand how online tracking works technically Protect digital data, secure online communications, and become anonymous online Cover and destroy your digital traces using Windows OS Secure your data in transit and at rest Be aware of cyber security risks and countermeasures Who This Book Is For End users, information security professionals, management, infosec students
Author: Abdul El-Sayed Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0190056622 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 369
Book Description
A citizen's guide to America's most debated policy-in-waitingAfter languishing for decades on the fringes of political discussion, Medicare-for-All has quickly entered the mainstream debate over what to do about America's persistent healthcare problems. But for most informed Americans, this surge of public and political interest in Medicare-for-All has outpaced a strong understanding of the issues involved. This book seeks to fill this gap in our national discourse, offering an expert analysis of the policy and politics behind Medicare-for-All for theinformed American.
Author: Frank Pasquale Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 0674975227 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 345
Book Description
AI is poised to disrupt our work and our lives. We can harness these technologies rather than fall captive to them—but only through wise regulation. Too many CEOs tell a simple story about the future of work: if a machine can do what you do, your job will be automated. They envision everyone from doctors to soldiers rendered superfluous by ever-more-powerful AI. They offer stark alternatives: make robots or be replaced by them. Another story is possible. In virtually every walk of life, robotic systems can make labor more valuable, not less. Frank Pasquale tells the story of nurses, teachers, designers, and others who partner with technologists, rather than meekly serving as data sources for their computerized replacements. This cooperation reveals the kind of technological advance that could bring us all better health care, education, and more, while maintaining meaningful work. These partnerships also show how law and regulation can promote prosperity for all, rather than a zero-sum race of humans against machines. How far should AI be entrusted to assume tasks once performed by humans? What is gained and lost when it does? What is the optimal mix of robotic and human interaction? New Laws of Robotics makes the case that policymakers must not allow corporations or engineers to answer these questions alone. The kind of automation we get—and who it benefits—will depend on myriad small decisions about how to develop AI. Pasquale proposes ways to democratize that decision making, rather than centralize it in unaccountable firms. Sober yet optimistic, New Laws of Robotics offers an inspiring vision of technological progress, in which human capacities and expertise are the irreplaceable center of an inclusive economy.
Author: Paul Starr Publisher: Penguin Mass Market ISBN: 9780140238938 Category : Health & Fitness Languages : en Pages : 130
Book Description
Analyzes the problems of national health insurance, discusses the theory behind the president's proposal, and explains why it should work
Author: Martin Lindstrom Publisher: Random House Australia ISBN: 1742753922 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 304
Book Description
A shocking insider's look at how global giants conspire to obscure the truth and manipulate our minds. Marketing visionary Martin Lindstrom has been on the front lines of the branding wars for over twenty years. Here, he turns the spotlight on his own industry, drawing on all he has witnessed behind closed doors, exposing for the first time the full extent of the psychological tricks and traps that companies devise to win our hard-earned dollars. Picking up from where Vance Packard's bestselling classic, The Hidden Persuaders, left off more than half-a-century ago, Lindstrom reveals: New findings that reveal how advertisers and marketers intentionally target children at an alarmingly young age - starting when they are still in the womb! Shocking results of an fMRI study which uncovered what heterosexual men really think about when they see sexually provocative advertising (hint: it isn't their girlfriends). How marketers and retailers stoke the flames of public panic and capitalize on paranoia over global contagions, extreme weather events, and food contamination scares. The first ever neuroscientific evidence proving how addicted we all are to our iPhones and our Blackberry's (and the shocking reality of cell phone addiction - it can be harder to shake than addictions to drugs and alcohol). How companies of all stripes are secretly mining our digital footprints to uncover some of the most intimate details of our private lives, then using that information to target us with ads and offers 'perfectly tailored' to our psychological profiles. How certain companies, like the maker of one popular lip balm, purposely adjust their formulas in order to make their products chemically addictive. What a 3-month long guerrilla marketing experiment, conducted specifically for this book, tells us about the most powerful hidden persuader of them all. And much, much more. This searing expose introduces a new class of tricks, techniques, and seductions - the Hidden Persuaders of the 21st century- and shows why they are more insidious and pervasive than ever.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Robert Fisk
Author: G. Williams
Author: Patricia Keeton
Author: David T. Courtwright
Author: Nihad Hassan
Author: Abdul El-Sayed
Author: Frank Pasquale
Author: Paul Starr
Author: Martin Lindstrom