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Author: Kai Philipp Christoffel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 76
Book Description
We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages in line with an optimizing rationale in a New Keynesian closed economy DSGE model. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques for German data from the late 1970s to present. Given the pre-euro heterogeneity in wage bargaining we take this as the first-best approximation at hand for modelling monetary policy in the presence of labor market frictions in the current European regime. In our framework, we find that labor market structure is of prime importance for the evolution of the business cycle, and for monetary policy in particular. Yet shocks originating in the labor market itself may contain only limited information for the conduct of stabilization policy.
Author: Kai Philipp Christoffel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 76
Book Description
We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages in line with an optimizing rationale in a New Keynesian closed economy DSGE model. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques for German data from the late 1970s to present. Given the pre-euro heterogeneity in wage bargaining we take this as the first-best approximation at hand for modelling monetary policy in the presence of labor market frictions in the current European regime. In our framework, we find that labor market structure is of prime importance for the evolution of the business cycle, and for monetary policy in particular. Yet shocks originating in the labor market itself may contain only limited information for the conduct of stabilization policy.
Author: Kai Christoffel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
In this paper, we explore the role of labor markets for monetary policy in the euro area in a New Keynesian model in which labor markets are characterized by search and matching frictions. We first investigate to which extent a more flexible labor market would alter the business cycle behavior and the transmission of monetary policy. We find that while a lower degree of wage rigidity makes monetary policy more effective, i.e. a monetary policy shock transmits faster onto inflation, the importance of other labor market rigidities for the transmission of shocks is rather limited. Second, having estimated the model by Bayesian techniques we analyze to which extent labor market shocks, such as disturbances in the vacancy posting process, shocks to the separation rate and variations in bargaining power are important determinants of business cycle fluctuations. Our results point primarily towards disturbances in the bargaining process as a significant contributor to inflation and output fluctuations. In sum, the paper supports current central bank practice which appears to put considerable effort into monitoring euro area wage dynamics and which appears to treat some of the other labor market information as less important for monetary policy.
Author: Kai Philipp Christoffel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
In this paper, we explore the role of labor markets for monetary policy in the euro area in a New Keynesian model in which labor markets are characterized by search and matching frictions. We first investigate to which extent a more flexible labor market would alter the business cycle behavior and the transmission of monetary policy. We find that while a lower degree of wage rigidity makes monetary policy more effective, i.e. a monetary policy shock transmits faster onto inflation, the importance of other labor market rigidities for the transmission of shocks is rather limited. Second, having estimated the model by Bayesian techniques we analyze to which extent labor market shocks, such as disturbances in the vacancy posting process, shocks to the separation rate and variations in bargaining power are important determinants of business cycle fluctuations. Our results point primarily towards disturbances in the bargaining process as a significant contributor to inflation and output fluctuations. In sum, the paper supports current central bank practice which appears to put considerable effort into monitoring euro area wage dynamics and which appears to treat some of the other labor market information as less important for monetary policy.
Author: Patrick Burke Publisher: ISBN: Category : Electronic dissertations Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The first chapter gives an overview of the current literature on participation in the labor market. Special attention is paid to trends in participation since 2000. The role of demographic change in those trends is compared against other explanations. With the increasing focus on labor market participation at the United States Federal Reserve, the history of monetary policy changes and participation is also examined. The second chapter estimates a labor market matching model to get a more accurate measure of the market tightness elasticity of the job finding rate and unexplained residual. The estimation strategy in the second chapter follows the approach in Borowczyk-Martins et al. (2013) which models the autocorrelation structure of the unobserved component in the matching function to address simultaneity bias. This chapter then uses asset data present in the Survey of Income and Program Participation. This allows for the use of average household debt as an additional instrument to correct for measurement error. These results help characterize the recent shifts in the Beveridge curve and the decline of the matching rate between job seekers and job openings between 2008-2013. How important is labor supply for the ability of monetary policy to influence inflation and employment? Hiring costs alter the response of inflation to monetary policy. As shown in Kurozumi and Van Zandweghe (2010), adjustments in employment can make it difficult for monetary policy to reach its price stability and full employment targets. As the policy response is more vigorous in maintaining inflation around a target, that target becomes impossible to maintain. Recent fluctuations in the participation rate have led to a growing concern about the role of labor supply in monetary policy. This chapter shows that as labor supply becomes more elastic, the monetary authority is more likely to be able to stabilize the economy around its steady state targets. The central bank's response to cyclical unemployment is important for price level stability regardless of business cycle goals. Journal of Economic Literature codes: E12 E24 E31 E32 E52.
Author: Ji Zhang Publisher: ISBN: 9781303195310 Category : Frictional unemployment Languages : en Pages : 135
Book Description
My dissertation studies the effect of macroeconomic policies both theoretically and empirically. In Chapter 1, I empirically estimate a DSGE model with search and matching frictions, endogenous job separation, and real wage rigidities to examine the main driving forces behind unemployment fluctuations. I find that shocks to unemployment benefits have historically been important for unemployment fluctuations, and the extension of unemployment benefits during the recent recession contributed to the higher unemployment rate. In Chapter 2, I study the impact of liquidity shocks on the economy, the effectiveness of alternative government policies, and the role played by the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. I find that extended unemployment benefits could slightly alleviate the big decline in output caused by the liquidity shock through mitigating current consumption decline, but raise unemployment and slow the recovery of the labor market. Unconventional monetary policy and fiscal expansion are very effective in stimulating the economy. The importance length of staying at the zero lower bound depend on type of labor market rigidities. In Chapter 3, I verify policy implications of New Keynesian models at the zero lower bound empirically. Through analyzing the responses of various yields to macroeconomic announcements, I find that the predictions of New Keynesian models for the behavior of interest rates when the zero lower bound is binding are reliable: nominal rates are less sensitive to news, and real rates respond to shocks in opposite directions from their behavior away from the zero lower bound. This suggests that at least in the short run, fiscal policy is more effective at the zero lower bound. I also find using an identification strategy based on heterogeneity that at the zero lower bound, monetary policy shocks account for less variation of both nominal and real rates, monetary policy is less effective in affecting short- and medium-term real rates, and the effect dies off faster.
Author: Kai Philipp Christoffel
Author: Kai Philipp Christoffel
Author: Kai Christoffel
Author: Kai Christoffel
Author: Kai Christoffel
Author: Keith Küster
Author: Kai Christoffel
Author: Alexander Koll
Author: Kai Philipp Christoffel
Author: Patrick Burke
Author: Ji Zhang