Author: Hilde C. Bjørnland Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of a monetary policy shock found in the established literature (CEE 1999). We find great interdependence between interest rate setting and stock prices. Stock prices immediately fall by 1.5 per cent due to a monetary policy shock that raises the federal funds rate by ten basis points. A stock price shock increasing stock prices by one per cent leads to an increase in the interest rate of five basis points. Stock price shocks are orthogonal to the information set in the VAR model and can be interpreted as non-fundamental shocks. We attribute a major part of the surge in stock prices at the end of the 1990s to these non-fundamental shocks.
Author: Hilde C. Bjørnland Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of a monetary policy shock found in the established literature (CEE 1999). We find great interdependence between interest rate setting and stock prices. Stock prices immediately fall by 1.5 per cent due to a monetary policy shock that raises the federal funds rate by ten basis points. A stock price shock increasing stock prices by one per cent leads to an increase in the interest rate of five basis points. Stock price shocks are orthogonal to the information set in the VAR model and can be interpreted as non-fundamental shocks. We attribute a major part of the surge in stock prices at the end of the 1990s to these non-fundamental shocks.
Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475505493 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 57
Book Description
We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Author: Stefania D'Amico Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Stock market fluctuations are likely to be an important determinant of monetary policy decisions because of their potential impact on macroeconomy. At the same time, innovations in fed fund rates affect stock prices as they change the expected future real interest rates. In this paper we apply a new identification procedure, based on proxy and IV variables, to estimate the contemporaneous relations between stock market and monetary policy without imposing any exclusion restrictions on the parameters of interest. In order to achieve identification we combine high frequency data on the S&P500 futures with the VAR methodology. Our empirical findings indicate: first, that monetary policy responds in a positive fashion to contemporaneous changes in the stock market; second, that stock returns respond negatively to a positive monetary policy shock and that both these responses are significant at 1% level. Our identification scheme uses weaker assumptions to address the problem of simultaneity and omitted variables that commonly affects this type of analysis. Besides a strong and significant reaction of stock market to policy innovations, results seems to confirm that when a more appropriate methodology is used, it is possible to detect a reaction of the Fed to asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board features the full text of the April 19, 2001 discussion paper entitled "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," written by Roberto Rigobon and Brian Sack. The text is available in PDF format. This paper examines an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of U.S. stock market returns to identify the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. The authors find that monetary policy reacts significantly to stock market movements.
Author: Ramesh Chandra Das Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 1789733197 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 432
Book Description
The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century illustrates the effect of financial policies upon global economic indicators, with special reference made to issues effecting East Asian nations generally and with a particular focus on Indian economic development since 2000.
Author: Jürgen von Hagen Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1475763905 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
Monetary union has dawned in Europe. Now that the common currency is a reality, questions concerning the practical conduct of monetary policy in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are moving to the forefront of the policy debate. Among these, one of the most critical is how the new monetary union will cope with the large heterogeneity of its member economies. Given the large differences in economic and financial structures among the EMU member states, monetary policy is likely to affect different member economies in different ways. Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe collects the proceedings of an international conference held at the Center for European Integration Studies of the University of Bonn, dedicated to this issue. The contributions to this conference fall into two parts. The first part consists of empirical and theoretical studies of the regional effects of monetary policy in heterogeneous monetary unions. The second part consists of papers analyzing the political economy of monetary policy in a monetary union of heterogeneous regions or member states. The papers all support the conclusion that regional differences in the responses to a common monetary policy will make European monetary policy especially difficult in the years to come. Such differences arise from a variety of sources, and they cannot be expected to be mere teething troubles that will disappear after a while. Even if they were ignored in the run-up to the EMU, Europe's central bankers and economic policy makers will have to learn how to cope with such differences in the future.
Author: Shernette McLeod Publisher: ISBN: Category : Canada Languages : en Pages : 182
Book Description
This thesis is comprised of three papers which jointly examine the role of commodity prices as well as other asset prices in influencing the evolution of economic activity in a small-open economy (SOE). Using Canada as the quintessential small-open economy, each chapter adopts a particular approach to investigating this dynamic relationship. It is hoped that the contribution made in this thesis to understanding the relationship will aid policy-makers as they attempt to address the associated policy questions which are often fraught with difficulties and uncertainty. In chapter 1 the use of a recursively identified Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) is employed to study the impact of commodity price shocks on Canada's macro-economy. While similar analysis has been carried out before, this has tended to focus solely on the impact of oil prices. Additionally, the analysis has tended to focus on aggregate output, while neglecting the specific sectoral impact. Given that each sectors' exposure to commodity price movements will be different, one would also expect varying sectoral responses to these shocks. Chapter 1 attempts to focus on this and thus offers a level of insight into the operation of the Canadian macro-economy which has not been extensively addressed in the literature. The results suggest that indeed there is divergent sectoral responses to commodity price shocks, using a broad measure of commodity prices. The commodity producing sectors of the economy respond favourably to an unexpected rise in commodity prices, whilst the manufacturing sector is negatively impacted by such movements. We also found evidence that policy-makers may attempt to contain any inflationary pressures emanating from rising commodity prices by raising interest rates. Chapter 2 delves even further into the dynamics of this relationship by employing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this chapter we extend the analysis undertaken in chapter 1, where we are again attempting to ascertain the sectoral responses to a commodity price shock. The use of this modelling framework however allows us to analyse that relationship in a manner which is internally consistent and also in-line with our beliefs about the behaviour of economic agents. Additionally, the DSGE model allows us to conduct counter-factual policy experiments which were not possible using the VAR framework. The results of the model are generally in-line with those found in chapter 1, as the commodity price shock has differing impacts on the various sectors of the economy. The results suggest that just examining the aggregate effects of commodity price shocks could overshadow important sectoral differences which are subsumed in these aggregate figures. Additionally, the counter factual policy exercises indicate that actions taken by the Central Bank during the Global Financial Crisis positively impacted Canada's economic performance during the crisis and the period immediately after. In the final chapter, co-authored with Jean-Paul Lam, we seek to quantify the interdependence between stock prices and monetary policy using an underidentified Structural VAR (SVAR) for Canada and the United States. We find that employing a recursive identification leads to counterfactual responses for the stock market following a monetary policy shock. In the underidentified VAR, the stock market and monetary policy are allowed to simultaneously react to each other's shock through a combination of short-run, long-run and sign restrictions. Unlike many studies in this literature, we impose a minimal number of restrictions on the short-run and long-run matrix, allowing the data to uncover the relationship between the variables in the SVAR. We find that an increase of 25 basis points (b.p.) in the policy rate of the central bank leads to a fall of about 1.75% in stock prices in Canada and to a fall of about 1.25% in stock prices in the U.S. This effect of monetary policy on stock prices is larger in Canada compared to the U.S. mainly because sectors that are interest rate sensitive, such as financials and energy account for a much larger share of the stock index in Canada compared to the U.S. Following a stock market shock, the short-term interest, industrial production, inflation and commodity prices rise both in Canada and in the U.S. A 1% increase in the stock market leads to an increase of about 27 b.p. in the overnight rate in Canada while it leads to an increase of about 10 b.p. in the Federal funds rate.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451844239 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
Author: Hilde C. Bjørnland
Author: Hilde C. Björnland
Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion
Author: Stefania D'Amico
Author: 
Author: Ramesh Chandra Das
Author: Jürgen von Hagen
Author: Shernette McLeod
Author: International Monetary Fund