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Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world economies. Our quantification relies on a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model and takes a deep dive into the impact across SSA’s oil-rich, other resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries. The results are based on a detailed dataset including information for 136 tradable primary commodity and 24 manufacturing and services sectors in 145 countries—32 of which are in SSA. We find that under GEF, SSA could experience long-term wellfare losses of approximately 4 percent of GDP, twice the losses of the rest of the world. This strong effect results from the large losses of other resource-rich and non-resource rich countries in SSA, given their high dependence on commodity trade. However, if the world experiences a less severe GEF-induced trade disruption—a strategic decoupling—SSA countries could derive minor gains from the re-shuffling of global market supply, specially in energy products.
Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world economies. Our quantification relies on a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model and takes a deep dive into the impact across SSA’s oil-rich, other resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries. The results are based on a detailed dataset including information for 136 tradable primary commodity and 24 manufacturing and services sectors in 145 countries—32 of which are in SSA. We find that under GEF, SSA could experience long-term wellfare losses of approximately 4 percent of GDP, twice the losses of the rest of the world. This strong effect results from the large losses of other resource-rich and non-resource rich countries in SSA, given their high dependence on commodity trade. However, if the world experiences a less severe GEF-induced trade disruption—a strategic decoupling—SSA countries could derive minor gains from the re-shuffling of global market supply, specially in energy products.
Author: Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Author: World Bank Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 082137608X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 410
Book Description
Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 77
Book Description
The 2023 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to support its members to address successive shocks, including Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, debt vulnerabilities, inequality food insecurity, geoeconomic fragmentation, climate change, and digitalization. In FY 2023, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 126 country health checks completed.2) Lending: $74 billion to 36 countries, including about $11 billion to 21 low-income countries, for a total of $294 billion to 96 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $337 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2023 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2022, through April 30, 2023, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2023 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 182
Book Description
The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Author: Kornegay Jnr, Francis Publisher: The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) ISBN: 063999556X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 472
Book Description
Africa and the World: Navigating Shifting Geopolitics is one of the first books to analyse the global geopolitical landscape from an African perspective, with a view to the opportunities and challenges facing the African continent. Authors in this edited volume argue for the need to re-imagine Africa’s role in the world. As a cradle of humanity, a historical fountain of profound scientific knowledge, an object of colonial conquest and, today, a collective of countries seeking to pool their sovereignties in order to improve the human condition, Africa has a unique opportunity to advance its own interests. Authors reflect on all these issues; they outline how developments in the global political economy impact on the continent and, inversely, how Africa can develop a strategic perspective that takes into account the dynamics playing out in a fraught global terrain. Central to this evaluation is the notion of ‘island Africa’: a vast island – with resources that extend into the oceans around it – that is a strategic centre by virtue of its geographic location, its endowments and its long-term potential. Authors assert that the positioning of ‘island Africa’ presents unique political, security and geo-economic benefi ts. Yet they also acknowledge that, as has happened historically, these very advantages can serve as a basis for new forms of domination and exploitation. In addition, this volume takes into account the socio-psychological factors that influence how nations of the world receive and interpret the present, and assess prospects for the future. The authors go beyond analysis of what is, to venture concrete proposals on what can be, with Africa exercising its agency. This requires the strengthening of continental integration and cohesion in pursuit of ideals that the African Union has enshrined in Agenda 2063. In this way, Africa would be able to engage – in a systemic and disciplined manner – with external powers to assert the continent’s own interests which, in their framing, are also the interests of humanity. A continent united in both purpose and action can be an active agent in shaping the evolving global order. This volume makes a strong case for precisely such a perspective and contributes to what should be an ongoing effort to analyse geopolitics with Africa as a critical frame of reference.
Author: Barry Buzan Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521891110 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 598
Book Description
This book develops the idea that since decolonisation, regional patterns of security have become more prominent in international politics. The authors combine an operational theory of regional security with an empirical application across the whole of the international system. Individual chapters cover Africa, the Balkans, CIS Europe, East Asia, EU Europe, the Middle East, North America, South America, and South Asia. The main focus is on the post-Cold War period, but the history of each regional security complex is traced back to its beginnings. By relating the regional dynamics of security to current debates about the global power structure, the authors unfold a distinctive interpretation of post-Cold War international security, avoiding both the extreme oversimplifications of the unipolar view, and the extreme deterritorialisations of many globalist visions of a new world disorder. Their framework brings out the radical diversity of security dynamics in different parts of the world.
Author: Fantu Cheru Publisher: Zed Books Ltd. ISBN: 184813827X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 300
Book Description
In recent years, China and India have become the most important economic partners of Africa and their footprints are growing by leaps and bounds, transforming Africa's international relations in a dramatic way. Although the overall impact of China and India's engagement in Africa has been positive in the short-term, partly as a result of higher returns from commodity exports fuelled by excessive demands from both countries, little research exists on the actual impact of China and India's growing involvement on Africa's economic transformation. This book examines in detail the opportunities and challenges posed by the increasing presence of China and India in Africa, and proposes critical interventions that African governments must undertake in order to negotiate with China and India from a stronger and more informed platform.
Author: Etel Solingen Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 110883356X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 321
Book Description
An accessible overview of political, economic, and strategic dimensions of global supply chains in a changing global political economy.
Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis
Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis
Author: Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
Author: World Bank
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: Mark Leonard
Author: Kornegay Jnr, Francis
Author: Barry Buzan
Author: Fantu Cheru
Author: Etel Solingen