Author: Michael MurachPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
How Severe Will the Growth Slowdown in China Caused by the Structural Change Be? - An Evaluation Based on Experiences from Japan and South Korea
Author: Michael MurachChina's Growth Slowdown
Author: Kyoji FukaoPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
China is switching from economic growth based on extremely rapid capital accumulation to economic growth based on structural reforms and accelerated total factor productivity growth. Meanwhile, China will also face a serious excess saving problem as capital accumulation slows and, hence, needs to reduce its private saving rate. Based on this analysis, we estimated the economic impact of China's growth slowdown and hypothetical economic transformation on Japan, the USA and Germany using the world input-output database. We compared the following three scenarios for China's final demand in 2020 and economic growth from 2015 to 2020: (i) an optimistic scenario (GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.501); (ii) a slowdown scenario (GDP growth rate = 4%, investment/GDP = 0.501); and (iii) a structural reform scenario (GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.3). Our analysis suggests that Japan and Germany would suffer more from structural reforms in China than from a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, for the USA, the employment decline triggered by structural reforms would be much smaller than the employment decline caused by a slowdown in growth.
The Economic Rise of East Asia
Author: Linda GlawePublisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030871282
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 356
Book Description
In light of the growing global economic importance of East Asia, this book analyzes and compares the extraordinary development paths and strategies of Japan, South Korea, and China. It examines both the factors that enabled these countries’ prolonged periods of high-speed economic growth, and the reasons for their subsequent “cool-downs.” In addition, the book illustrates how their development strategies served as role models for one another, and what current and future developing countries can learn from the East Asian success stories. This book will appeal to scholars and students of economics and development studies with an interest in the East Asian development model.
Banking Sector Reforms
Author: M. Kabir HassanPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009244825
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132
Book Description
China registered double-digit GDP growth for more than three decades. Recently, the rate has slowed down considerably. The slow growth period, which Chinese policymakers refer to as the 'new-normal', has created enormous curiosity among scholars and policymakers. In particular, scholars often tend to project if China is destined to follow Japan's fate. Insufficient reforms in the banking sector in commensuration with the real economy in Japan resulted in an unprecedented financial catastrophe. Similarly, an asymmetric development between the Chinese banking sector and the real economy is observed. This leads to an interesting question: is China destined to meet Japan's legacy? This Element attempts to answer this question. In so doing, it delves deep into the banking sector reforms of China. The Element concludes that China is not on course to meet an immediate financial chaos, but the country needs further banking reforms to avoid a potential crisis.
Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence CouncilPublisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
China's Economic Rise
Author: Congressional Research ServicePublisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781976466953
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Book Description
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
China's Growth and Integration Into the World Economy
Author: Eswar PrasadPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 80
Book Description
China’s transformation into a dynamic private-sector-led economy and its integration into the world economy have been among the most dramatic global economic developments of recent decades. This paper provides an overview of some of the key aspects of recent developments in China’s macroeconomy and economic structure. It also surveys the main policy challenges that will need to be addressed for China to maintain sustained high growth and continued global integration.
China 2049
Author: David DollarPublisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815738064
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 444
Book Description
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem
Author: Wojciech MaliszewskiPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475545282
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
Book Description
Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.
Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run
Author: Maddison AngusPublisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264163557
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 196
Book Description
The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China.