High-resolution Interpolation of Climate Scenarios for Canada Derived from General Circulation Model Simulations PDF Download

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Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Canada
Languages : en
Pages : 130

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Author:
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ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 87

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Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web portal of Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 3) of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and subsets of data covering North America were extracted. Climate variables included monthly mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, incident surface solar radiation, wind speed, and specific humidity. All variables were expressed as changes relative to the simulated monthly means for 1961-1990, which corrected for GCM bias in reproducing past climate and allowed future projected trends to be compared directly. The downscaling procedure used the ANUSPLIN software package to fit a two-dimensional spline function to each month's change data for each climate variable at a spatial resolution of 5 arcminutes (0.0833o) longitude and latitude. The A2 emission scenario invariably generated the greatest warming by 2100 and the B1 the least. Alaska is projected to undergo the greatest regional increases in temperature and precipitation. Differences across the projections were generally greater from the different GHG forcings than those resulting from the different GCMs, although the consistency varied spatially. Gridded datasets are publicly available. The downscaled change factors from this study are being used with historical climatology developed from the PRISM climate data set to develop the climate projections for the RPA scenarios in the USDA FS RPA assessment. A companion report and data set will be issued by Natural Resources Canada (Canadian Forest Service) for Canada.

Author: United States Department of Agriculture
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781507628010
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96

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Book Description
Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web portal of Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 3) of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and subsets of data covering North America were extracted. Climate variables included monthly mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, incident surface solar radiation, wind speed, and specific humidity. All variables were expressed as changes relative to the simulated monthly means for 1961-1990, which corrected for GCM bias in reproducing past climate and allowed future projected trends to be compared directly. The downscaling procedure used the ANUSPLIN software package to fit a two-dimensional spline function to each month's change data for each climate variable at a spatial resolution of 5 arcminutes (0.0833 ) longitude and latitude. The A2 emission scenario invariably generated the greatest warming by 2100 and the B1 the least. Alaska is projected to undergo the greatest regional increases in temperature and precipitation. Differences across the projections were generally greater from the different GHG forcings than those resulting from the different GCMs, although the consistency varied spatially. Gridded datasets are publicly available. The downscaled change factors from this study are being used with historical climatology developed from the PRISM climate data set to develop the climate projections for the RPA scenarios in the USDA FS RPA assessment. A companion report and data set will be issued by Natural Resources Canada (Canadian Forest Service) for Canada.

Author: Michel Bechtold
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889760529
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 234

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Author: Rattan Lal
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400741596
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 578

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Human activities are significantly modifying the natural global carbon (C) cycles, and concomitantly influence climate, ecosystems, and state and function of the Earth system. Ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) are added to the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion but the biosphere is a potential C sink. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of C cycling in the biosphere is crucial for identifying and managing biospheric C sinks. Ecosystems with large C stocks which must be protected and sustainably managed are wetlands, peatlands, tropical rainforests, tropical savannas, grasslands, degraded/desertified lands, agricultural lands, and urban lands. However, land-based sinks require long-term management and a protection strategy because C stocks grow with a progressive improvement in ecosystem health.

Author: Nicholas Clifford
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 1473908965
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 692

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"Practical, accessible, careful and interesting, this...revised volume brings the subject up-to-date and explains, in bite sized chunks, the ′how′s′ and ′why′s′ of modern day geographical study...[It] brings together physical and human approaches again in a new synthesis." —Danny Dorling, Professor of Geography, University of Oxford Key Methods in Geography is the perfect introductory companion, providing an overview of qualitative and quantitative methods for human and physical geography. This Third Edition Features: 12 new chapters representing emerging themes including online, virtual and digital geographical methods Real-life case study examples Summaries and exercises for each chapter Free online access to full text of Progress in Human Geography and Progress in Physical Geography Progress Reports The teaching of research methods is integral to all geography courses: Key Methods in Geography, Third Edition explains all of the key methods with which geography undergraduates must be conversant.

Author: Xiuquan Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Human-induced climate change has been regarded as one of the most pressing issues around the world because it often leads to severe, widespread, and irreversible consequences. Assessing the potential impacts of climate change is essential and critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies against the changing climate. In this research, a series of approaches and methodologies have been proposed for dealing with the challenges in climate change impact assessment due to the lack of highresolution climate projections and the difficulty in quantifying the uncertainties associated with future climate projections. The proposed approaches and methodologies have been applied to the Province of Ontario, Canada to demonstrate their effectiveness in generating probabilistic and high-resolution regional climate scenarios. Specifically, a new statistical downscaling tool, named SCADS, has been developed to help perform rapid development of downscaled scenarios under current and future climate forcing conditions. The SCADS uses a cluster tree to effectively deal with continuous and discrete variables, as well as nonlinear relations between large-scale atmospheric variables and local surface ones. A hybrid downscaling approach by coupling the PRECIS model and the SCADS model has been proposed to construct high resolution climate projections for studying climate change impacts at local scales. The coupled approach was applied for projecting the future climate over Ontario at a fine resolution of 10 km. A Bayesian hierarchical model has been developed to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate projections in a statistical framework based upon a limited number of explicit assumptions for prior distributions. By feeding the observations for current climate and the PRECIS ensemble simulations into the Bayesian model, probabilistic projections of future climatic changes over Ontario have been developed. The likely changes in temperature and precipitation as well as extreme precipitation events across the Province of Ontario were evaluated to help understand its local climate's response to global warming. A public climate change data portal, named Ontario CCDP, have been established to ensure impact researchers and decision makers have free access to the high-resolution climate projections, thus supporting further impact studies and development of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Author: U.S. Department of the Interior
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781497353619
Category : Reference
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs.

Author: James M. Vose
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1466572760
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 482

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Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex inter

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric circulation
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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