Author: Carlos MadeiraPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
Book Description
Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations, Learning and Market Outcomes
Author: Carlos MadeiraInflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics
Author: Anke WeberPublisher:
ISBN: 9783865583130
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
Book Description
This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning performs well in out-of-sample forecasting. It is also shown that households in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries. They are hence able to pick up structural changes faster. Professional forecasters update their information sets more frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the ECB, which is to keep inflation belowto but close to 2% in the medium run. This contrasts the findings for professional experts, which seem to be more inclined to incorporate the implications of monetary union for the convergence in inflation rates into their expectations.
Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability Under Satisficing Learning
Author: Jaylson Jair da SilveiraPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968-2010
Author: Michael P. ClementsPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Book Description
Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations
Author: Gilberto Tadeu LimaNBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003
Author: Mark GertlerPublisher: Mit Press
ISBN: 9780262072533
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 432
Book Description
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations
Author: Mathieu O. PedemonteExpectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence
Author: Mr.Rudolfs BemsPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148439223X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices
Author: Alberto F. CavalloPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Book Description
Inflation expectations in household surveys tend to be vastly heterogeneous. The literature has been unable to distinguish empirically between alternative explanations, such as the existence of rational inattention (according to which individuals will not continuously gather costly information) and the use of information from personal shopping experiences (which can be diverse and inaccurate). To better understand the importance of these mechanisms, we use evidence from field experiments with nearly 10,000 subjects conducted in both a low-inflation country (the United States) and a high-inflation country (Argentina). We introduce a novel experimental design which, when combined with unique data sources, allows us to quantify how much weight individuals assign to each source of information about inflation. Our novel experimental framework addresses one of the most important concerns with survey experiments by separating genuine from spurious learning. We find that individuals are highly influenced by information on both inflation statistics and price changes of specific products. The results are consistent with rational inattention, since there is greater learning in a low-inflation setting where the stakes are lower (the United States), and also from information that is less costly to understand (individual supermarket prices). To further assess the importance of personal experiences, we conducted field experiments which combined data from actual products purchased by the subjects with their historical prices. We find that individuals form inflation expectations using their own memories about the price changes of supermarket products they buy, but those memories are nearly orthogonal to the actual price changes.