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Author: Thomas Warren Hertel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
June 1996 Emphasizing the importance of evaluating the Uruguay Round in the context of a changing world economy, the authors base their projections on a model that incorporates certain economic shifts: 1) that the center of economic gravity will shift toward the South and toward Asia (a shift that is already under way and shows no signs of abating), and 2) that the pattern of comparative advantage will continue to change, with the East Asian economies gaining comparative advantage in the production of physical and human-capital-intensive products. The authors argue that these changes in the global economy significantly affect their analysis of the Uruguay round reforms, for two reasons. First, with the global distribution of trade and production shifting toward Asia, the deeper Uruguay Round cuts in that region become more important, giving rise to a 17 percent increase in the proportionate welfare gain after implementation of tariff cuts. Second, without the Round, almost all of the bilateral quotas associated with the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) would have become more binding and the resulting distortion would have been significantly greater. In this analysis, the global gain from MFA reform is 60 percent greater than it would have been without taking into account the effects of growth. Of course, procedures for implementation of the MFA reforms are more complex than they have conveyed for purposes of analysis. In practice, one must also consider the impact of accel quota growth under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. But even when the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing is implemented over the period for which projections were made, quota rents rise for many bilateral flows. This is a consequence both of shifts in comparative advantage toward the supplying countries and of simultaneous cuts in tariffs on textiles and clothing. The projections approach used here may be viewed as a logical extension of the growing econometric literature seeking to explain the determinants of economic growth through regression analysis. By offering a bridge between econometric evidence and computable general equilibrium modeling, the authors hope to combine the two approaches to help shed light on the interaction between trade reform and economic growth.
Author: Thomas W. Hertel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Emphasizing the importance of evaluating the Uruguay Round in the context of a changing world economy, the authors base their projections on a model that incorporates certain economic shifts: 1) that the center of economic gravity will shift toward the South and toward Asia (a shift that is already under way and shows no signs of abating), and 2) that the pattern of comparative advantage will continue to change, with the East Asian economies gaining comparative advantage in the production of physical and human-capital-intensive products. The authors argue that these changes in the global economy significantly affect their analysis of the Uruguay round reforms, for two reasons. First, with the global distribution of trade and production shifting toward Asia, the deeper Uruguay Round cuts in that region become more important, giving rise to a 17 percent increase in the proportionate welfare gain after implementation of tariff cuts. Second, without the Round, almost all of the bilateral quotas associated with the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) would have become more binding and the resulting distortion would have been significantly greater. In this analysis, the global gain from MFA reform is 60 percent greater than it would have been without taking into account the effects of growth. Of course, procedures for implementation of the MFA reforms are more complex than they have conveyed for purposes of analysis. In practice, one must also consider the impact of accel quota growth under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. But even when the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing is implemented over the period for which projections were made, quota rents rise for many bilateral flows. This is a consequence both of shifts in comparative advantage toward the supplying countries and of simultaneous cuts in tariffs on textiles and clothing. The projections approach used here may be viewed as a logical extension of the growing econometric literature seeking to explain the determinants of economic growth through regression analysis. By offering a bridge between econometric evidence and computable general equilibrium modeling, the authors hope to combine the two approaches to help shed light on the interaction between trade reform and economic growth.
Author: Robert M. Stern Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9814340375 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 716
Book Description
Alan Deardorff was 65 years old on June 6, 2009. To celebrate this occasion, a Festschrift in his honor was held on October 2OCo3, 2009, in the Rackham Amphitheater at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. The Festschrift was entitled OC Comparative Advantage, Economic Growth, and the Gains from Trade and Globalization: A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff.OCO It was co-organized by two of Professor Deardorff''s former students, Drusilla Brown of Tufts University and Robert Staiger of Stanford University, together with Robert Stern representing the University of Michigan. The first day of the Festschrift involved a series of panels in which invited participants reflected on Professor Deardorff''s contributions, including his writings on: comparative advantage; trade and growth; the gains from trade and globalization; and computational modeling and trade policy analysis. The panel participants prepared written comments, setting out their evaluation of Professor Deardorff''s contributions combined with their own thoughts on the current state of knowledge and analysis of the particular topic. At the end of the first day, Paul Krugman of Princeton University and The New York Times delivered a Citigroup Foundation Special Lecture entitled OC Reflections on Globalization: Yesteryear and Today.OCO All of these papers and Krugman''s lecture are contained in the volume."
Author: Graham Dunkley Publisher: Melbourne University ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 344
Book Description
The 1994 Uruguay Round agreement of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has been heralded as one of the greatest trade agreements in history. However, to some observers it is the road to economic, social and environmental ruin, while to others it represents little more than the creation of a world-dominating bureaucracy which will be controlled entirely by giant transnational corporations. This text outlines the social, political and economic climate in which the 7-year Uruguay Round negotiations took place. It examines the implications and likely outcomes of the round in the wider context of the contemporary thrust towards global free trade and economic globalization.
Author: Christian Friis Bach Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Market growth and structural changes will affect the results of quantitative analyses of the Uruguay Round. Rapid economic growth in Asia and relatively deeper cuts in protection in that region, result in larger proportionate welfare gains in the year 2005 than in the year 1992. We also find that changing comparative advantage and shifts in global demand result in substantial changes in the restrictive effects of the bilateral quotas on textiles and apparel. Accounting for the factors associated with market growth and structural change adds 30% to our estimates of global welfare gains from the Uruguay Round.
Author: John Whalley Publisher: Washington, DC : Institute for International Economics ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
There are growing pressures to reform the international trading system beyond whatever is accomplished in the Uruguay Round. This study assesses the present GATT system and concludes that the need for further reform is far-reaching. Whalley finds that the principles underlying the current system - nondiscrimination and multilateralism - will not adequately serve in the future to reduce trade barriers and promote the benefits of trade. The study outlines new approaches to reduce the level of protection and harness new regional trading arrangements to improve global economic performance.