Graphical Models for Correlated Defaults PDF Download

Author: Ismail Onur Filiz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 228

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Author: Fan Yu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Book Description
This paper presents an intensity-based model of correlated defaults with application to the valuation of defaultable securities. The model assumes that the intensities of the default times are driven by common factors as well as other defaults in the system. A recursive procedure called the total hazard construction is used to generate default times with a broad class of correlation structures. This approach is compared to standard reduced-form models based on conditional independence as well as alternative approaches involving copula functions. Examples are given for the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps of the regular and basket type.

Author: Gunter Meissner
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118796896
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 268

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Book Description
A thorough guide to correlation risk and its growing importance in global financial markets Ideal for anyone studying for CFA, PRMIA, CAIA, or other certifications, Correlation Risk Modeling and Management is the first rigorous guide to the topic of correlation risk. A relatively overlooked type of risk until it caused major unexpected losses during the financial crisis of 2007 through 2009, correlation risk has become a major focus of the risk management departments in major financial institutions, particularly since Basel III specifically addressed correlation risk with new regulations. This offers a rigorous explanation of the topic, revealing new and updated approaches to modelling and risk managing correlation risk. Offers comprehensive coverage of a topic of increasing importance in the financial world Includes the Basel III correlation framework Features interactive models in Excel/VBA, an accompanying website with further materials, and problems and questions at the end of each chapter

Author:
Publisher: ScholarlyEditions
ISBN: 1490106804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 241

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Book Description
Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Additional Research. The editors have built Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Additional Research in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Author: Alexander Denev
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781782720973
Category : Finance
Languages : en
Pages : 448

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Author: Benjamin Christoffersen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
Firm-level default models are important for bottomup modeling of the default risk of corporate debt portfolios. However, models in the literature typically have several strict assumptions which may yield biased results, notably a linear effect of covariates on the log-hazard scale, no interactions, and the assumption of a single additive latent factor on the log-hazard scale. Using a sample of US corporate firms, we provide evidence that these assumptions are too strict and matter in practice and, most importantly, we provide evidence of a time-varying effect of the relative firm size. We propose a frailty model to account for such effects that can provide forecasts for arbitrary portfolios as well. Our proposed model displays superior out-of-sample ranking of firms by their default risk and forecasts of the industry-wide default rate during the recent global financial crisis.

Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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Book Description
We propose a new econometric framework for estimating and forecasting the default intensities of corporate credit subject to observed and unobserved risk factors. The model combines common factors from macroeconomic and financial covariates with an unobserved latent (frailty) component for discrete default counts, observed contagion factors at the industry level, and standard risk measures such as ratings, equity returns, and volatilities. In an empirical application, we find a large and significant role for a dynamic frailty component even after controlling for more than eighty percent of the variation in more than hundred macroeconomic and financial covariates, as well as industry level contagion dynamics and equity information. We emphasize the need for a latent component to prevent the downward bias in estimated default rate volatility at the rating and industry levels and in estimated probabilities of extreme default losses on portfolios of U.S. debt. The latent factor does not substitute for a single omitted macroeconomic variable. We argue that it captures different omitted effects at different times. We also provide empirical evidence that default and business cycle conditions depend on different processes. In an out-of-sample forecasting study for point-in-time default probabilities, we obtain mean absolute error reductions of more than forty percent when compared to models with observed risk factors only. The forecasts are relatively more accurate when default conditions diverge from aggregate macroeconomic conditions.

Author: Santhosh Bandreddi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This paper exploits the endogenous default function framework of Das and Sundaram (2007) to develop an approach for modeling correlated default on binomial trees usually used for pricing equity options. We show how joint default contracts may be valued on these trees. The model accommodates different correlation assumptions and practical implementation considerations. Credit portfolio characteristics are examined within the model and found to be consistent with stylized empirics. Risk premia for default are computable and shown to be relatively higher for poor quality firms. Equity volatility is shown to impact correlated credit loss distributions substantially. Two kinds of default dependence are explored, one coming from default intensity correlations, and the other from further conditional dependence in defaults after accounting for intensity correlations (residual copula correlation). Both are found to impact credit loss distributions, though the absence of either makes these distributions less sensitive to correlation assumptions; on balance intensity correlations are more critical.

Author: Ivan Jeliazkov
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1784411841
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 361

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Book Description
This volume of Advances in Econometrics 34 focusses on Bayesian model comparison. It reflects the recent progress in model building and evaluation that has been achieved in the Bayesian paradigm and provides new state-of-the-art techniques, methodology, and findings that should stimulate future research.

Author: Edward F. Vonesh
Publisher: SAS Institute
ISBN: 1629592307
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 529

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Book Description
Edward Vonesh's Generalized Linear and Nonlinear Models for Correlated Data: Theory and Applications Using SAS is devoted to the analysis of correlated response data using SAS, with special emphasis on applications that require the use of generalized linear models or generalized nonlinear models. Written in a clear, easy-to-understand manner, it provides applied statisticians with the necessary theory, tools, and understanding to conduct complex analyses of continuous and/or discrete correlated data in a longitudinal or clustered data setting. Using numerous and complex examples, the book emphasizes real-world applications where the underlying model requires a nonlinear rather than linear formulation and compares and contrasts the various estimation techniques for both marginal and mixed-effects models. The SAS procedures MIXED, GENMOD, GLIMMIX, and NLMIXED as well as user-specified macros will be used extensively in these applications. In addition, the book provides detailed software code with most examples so that readers can begin applying the various techniques immediately. This book is part of the SAS Press program.