Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty PDF Download

Author: Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451854862
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.

Author: Mr.Leonardo Bartolini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Book Description
We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.

Author: Julio Escolano
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781462396955
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 94

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Book Description
This paper presents a practical guide to public debt dynamics, fiscal sustainability, and cyclical adjustment of budgetary aggregates. The paper discusses fiscal formulas, which may be of practical use in fiscal analysis. The paper derives, respectively, the formulas for debt dynamics, and cyclical and inflation adjustment of budgetary aggregates. It discusses other relationships for special applications, and some practical implications and usage. The formulas related to debt dynamics are based on the assumption that changes in liabilities are the result of above-the-line budgetary operations.

Author: Craig Burnside
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821358740
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312

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Book Description
Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451956940
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220

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Book Description
This paper focuses on exchange rate economics. Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. In this paper, the literature on these views is surveyed, followed by a discussion of the empirical evidence and likely future developments in the area of exchange rate determination. The literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rates and “news,” and international parity conditions is also reviewed.

Author: Mr.Timothy D. Lane
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451846150
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Under what circumstances can market forces prevent unsustainable borrowing? Effective market discipline requires that capital markets be open, that; information on the borrower’s existing liabilities be readily available, that no bailout be anticipated, and that the borrower respond to market signals. This paper explores the implications of these conditions, and reviews some relevant empirical evidence.

Author: S. Ali Abbas
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0198850824
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 455

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Book Description
This book is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners, and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject.

Author: P. Arestis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230393543
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 246

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Book Description
A detailed and informed analysis of the current crisis facing the eurozone, examining the root causes and exploring the possible outcomes and uncertain future of the European Union and its currency. Chapters include case studies of Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Greece, as well as broader comparative perspectives.

Author: Simon Kuipers
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349267325
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416

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Book Description
Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling discusses several state-of-the-art developments in the modelling approach to market behaviour in macroeconomic modelling. Leading experts in this field, deal with the implications of market imperfections in commodity markets, capital markets and labour markets for macroeconomic modelling and stabilization policy. They demonstrate that incorporating market imperfections leads to very different policy recommendations than those derived from the standard perfect competition model.

Author: S. Ali Abbas
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192591398
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 455

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Book Description
The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.