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Author: Ms.Deniz Igan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475505671 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements. Empirical analysis shows that house price dynamics are mostly driven by income and demographics but fluctuations in these fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path. We conclude with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections.
Author: Ms.Deniz Igan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475505671 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements. Empirical analysis shows that house price dynamics are mostly driven by income and demographics but fluctuations in these fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path. We conclude with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections.
Author: Deniz Igan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 57
Book Description
Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements. Empirical analysis shows that house price dynamics are mostly driven by income and demographics but fluctuations in these fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path. We conclude with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections.
Author: Alain N. Kabundi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451873786 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the U.S. credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.
Author: Mr.Philippe Bracke Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463921314 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.
Author: Richard Barras Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9781444310016 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 448
Book Description
The global economic crisis of 2008 was precipitated by a housing market crash, thus highlighting the destabilizing influence of the property cycle upon the wider economy. This timely book by a world authority explores why cycles occur and how they affect the behaviour of real estate markets. The central argument put forward is that growth and instability are inextricably linked, and that building investment acts both as a key driver of growth and as the source of the most volatile cyclical fluctuations in an economy. The role of building cycles in both economic growth and urban development is explored through a theoretical review and a comparative historical analysis of UK and US national data stretching back to the start of the nineteenth century, together with a case study of the development of London since the start of the eighteenth century. A simulation model of the building cycle is presented and tested using data for the City of London office market. The analysis is then broadened to examine the operation of property cycles in global investment markets during the post-war period, focussing on their contribution to the diffusion of innovation, the accumulation of wealth and the propagation of market instability. Building Cycles: growth & instability concludes by synthesizing the main themes into a theoretical framework, which can guide our understanding of the operation and impact of building cycles on the modern economy. Postgraduate students on courses in property and in urban development as well as professional property researchers, urban economists and planners will find this a stimulating read – demanding but accessible.
Author: Susan Wachter Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 178347288X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 364
Book Description
This innovative book analyses the role played by real estate markets in global financial stability and examines the fragile link between the two. Through what transmission channels do housing market cycles influence broader economic systems? How
Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475591608 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.
Author: Stephen J. Brown Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1441986421 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 126
Book Description
In March 1999, New York University Salomon Center in assocIatIOn with the Department of Finance at NYU Stern held a one-day conference on the impact of real estate cycles on the real estate industry both from a domestic as well as an international perspective. The conference featured the leading research on this topic in the United States, Europe and Asia. Currendy, the real estate industry is at a critical point. New development projects around the world are being put on hold given recent developments in the international capital markets. The industry is hard hit by the decline in real estate investment trust (REIT) share prices and a shrink ing pool of capital for real estate ventures. This has unfortunately coincided with serious financial problems of very large hedge funds and other institutional investors in the market for commercial mortgage backed securities. There is need for new insights into the implications of U. S. and global real estate cycles on real estate secu rities including REITs and mortgage-backed securities as well as direct real estate investment. This global orientation is important given the high mobility of capital into the real estate, the increasing integration of real estate markets, and the proposed expan sion of real estate investment trusts (REIT) into international real estate. The process of globalization has resulted in increased competition between cities for the attrac tion of investment.
Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
This paper investigates the international spillovers of housing demand shocks on real economic activity. The global economy is modelled using a Global VAR, with a novel house price data set for both advanced and emerging economies. The impulse responses to an identified US housing demand shock confirm the existence of strong international spillovers to advanced economies. In contrast, the response of some major emerging economies is not significantly different from zero. The paper also shows that synchronized housing demand shocks in advanced economies reinforce each other and have a deep and long-lasting impact on economic activity.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the U.S. credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.
Author: Ms.Deniz Igan
Author: Ms.Deniz Igan
Author: Deniz Igan
Author: Alain N. Kabundi
Author: Mr.Philippe Bracke
Author: Richard Barras
Author: Susan Wachter
Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Author: Stephen J. Brown
Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Author: