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Author: Thomas Hoehl Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3656047715 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.
Author: Thomas Hoehl Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3656047715 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498333486 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: Marek Krzysztof Kolodziej Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 188
Book Description
Abstract: Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive large oil prices. Chinese oil demand is not responsible for large increases in oil prices; nor are they caused by behavioral idiosyncrasies by oil traders. Finally, oil will be treated largely as a financial asset so long as interest rates are held near their all-time lows.
Author: Yan Hu Publisher: ISBN: 9781369681000 Category : Futures market Languages : en Pages : 109
Book Description
When the crude oil price rocketed to $147 per barrel in July 2008 and then dropped to as low as $30 per barrel in December 2008, it catalyzed a hot debate about the factors of oil price fluctuations. A large number of papers argue that the main driver of the oil price fluctuations from 2003 to 2008 was due to economic fundamentals in the form of rapidly growing oil demand with stagnant oil supply. However, a different view is that speculation in the oil futures market caused the oil price to drift away from the level justified by the fundamental market forces of demand and supply because a large amount of investment flowed to the oil futures market during this period. This dissertation links the oil financial and spot markets through the oil futures-spot price spread and investigates if the financial activity in the oil futures market plays a critical role in oil spot price fluctuations between 2003 and 2008. In addition, this dissertation also discusses the recent oil price drop since July 2014 and studies whether the main driver of this recent oil price change is similar to that of the oil price change in 2008. ☐ Unlike other related literature that uses standard structural VAR, this dissertation applies a Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatilities that can capture both time-varying relationships between economic aggregates and time-varying impacts of different oil shocks. This approach disentangles the oil financial speculation shock from economic fundamental shocks. In the meantime, the findings of the TVP-VAR model are compared with those of the Bayesian VAR with stochastic volatilities (BVAR-SV) model, a benchmark model in this dissertation, to see if incorporating time-varying coefficients in the model can give better results. The results of the comparison show that the time variations in coefficients are insignificant and imposing time varying coefficients in the model not only increases the estimation computation work load but also affects the model’s estimation accuracy. Therefore, the conclusion in this dissertation comes from the results of the BVAR-SV model. The results imply that the large proportion of the oil price changes from 2003 to 2008 can be explained by the oil demand shock but this proportion has been decreasing since 2005. In addition, the contribution of the oil financial speculation shock has increased substantially in recent years. In sum, the main driver of oil price change is oil demand from 2003 to 2008, whereas the main driver from 2014 to 2015 is oil financial speculation in the oil futures market.
Author: Salvatore Carollo Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119962900 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Author: Sally Clubley Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9780849305191 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 160
Book Description
Trading in Oil Futures and Options, thoroughly revised and updated, provides practical advice on when to make the decision to use futures; choosing a broker; and the mechanics of futures trading. This new edition has been extended to include all oil market trading instruments, and also gas and electricity derivatives. Updates the only comprehensive guide to oil futures and options Presents an international outlook on the topic Features a chapter on technical analysis and an appendix on the costs of futures trading
Author: George Xianzhi Yuan Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9811223211 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
In 2020, the global lockdowns caused by the COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic had resulted in a sharp drop in demand for crude oil. This impact was so severe that on April 8, 2020, a proposal to update the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) trading rule to permit negative prices was applied to CME's WTI Oil futures contracts; this led to a novel phenomenon in which the closing clearing price of WTI Oil May future was $-37.63/barrel based on fewer than 400 contracts' trading volume in the last three minutes, reflecting less than 0.2% of the total trading contracts volume on April 20, 2020. This occurrence of negative closing clearing price for CME's WTI Oil futures trading, cannot be explained simply by just the principle of supply and demand; instead, it highlights vulnerabilities caused by CME's allowance of negative price trading (based on its trading platform), a decision which brings potential and fundamental challenges to the global financial system.This event challenges not just our basic concepts of 'value' and trading 'price' of commodities and goods that underline our understanding of the framework for the invisible hand and general equilibrium theory in economics established by a few generations of scholars since Adam Smith in 1776 for market economies, but also have wider implications on the fundamentals that underpin our ideas of value and labor in the organization, activity, and behavior of civilizations and individual liberties.The scope of this book is limited to covering the impact of the negative oil futures derivatives' trading between April 20 and 21, 2020. This book focuses on exploring the issues, challenges, and possible impacts on global financial markets due to the negative clearing prices of WTI Oil futures contracts and related problems from different perspectives. Topics covered include the responsibilities and liabilities of the CME; critique to the fundamental theory of economics and the modern understanding of value and labor; and challenges to the global financial systems and businesses and introduction to new methods of application.
Author: Thomas Hoehl
Author: Thomas Hoehl
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Author: Marek Krzysztof Kolodziej
Author: 
Author: Yan Hu
Author: Paul W. MacAvoy
Author: Salvatore Carollo
Author: Sally Clubley
Author: Bassam Fattouh
Author: George Xianzhi Yuan