Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
Forecasts of the 1999 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay Using Traditional FRI Methodology
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
The 1999 FRI Preseason Forecast of the Bristol Bay Sockeye Run Using an Alternative Approach
Author: Forecast of the 2000 Run of Sockeye Salmon to Bristol Bay
Author: Forecasts of the 1998 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Inseason Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returns to the Bristol Bay Districts of Alaska
Author: Saang-Yoon HyunPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Sockeye salmon
Languages : en
Pages : 334
Book Description
The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery has been the most valuable salmon fishery in North America, and provides season employment for several thousand workers. The fishery consists of five reasonably discrete fishing districts corresponding to watersheds where the salmon are returning to spawn. The long term objective of management is to achieve Maximum Sustained Yield from the fishery, and this is implemented on an annual basis by regulating the time allowed for fishing to allow a predetermined number of fish to pass the fishery and make it to their natal streams and lakes to spawn. The expected total return of fish to each district is an important part of the fishery management and is equally important to the fishing fleet and the fish processors. I developed a statistical model for inseason run size prediction that uses data from (1) a test fishery at Pt. Moller, (2) the age composition of the catch at Pt. Moller, (3) the total return to date by district and (4) the age composition of the return to each district. Optimization and Bayesian methods are used to obtain both point estimates and distributions of estimates. I found that the temporal pattern in catches at Pt. Moller explained 59% of the variation in run timing in the fishing districts. Using the preseason forecast as a prior significantly improved the performance of the estimation during the initial stage of the season. This method provides a consistent way to incorporate diverse forms of data in a single unified statistical framework that should provide a significant improvement in inseason run forecasting. The method was tested using data from 1999 and found to perform well. In terms of the absolute values of relative errors of forecasts of the returns to the main districts (Kvichak-Naknek, Egegik, and Nushagak) made on June 24, June 29, and July 4, the mean values were 86.7%, 72.4%, and 59.9% when preseason forecasts were not incorporated, whereas they were 27.6%,25.4%, and 20.9% when preseason forecasts were incorporated.
Forecasts of the 1997 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Book Description
Forecasts of the 1993 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 38
Book Description
Forecasts of the 1998 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Forecasts of the 1994 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fish stock assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
Forecast of the 2001 Run of Sockeye Salmon to Bristol Bay
Author: Donald E. RogersPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Pacific salmon fisheries
Languages : en
Pages : 50
Book Description