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Author: Paul J. Culhane Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0429709315 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
This book evaluates the predictive accuracy of the forecasts in a sample of federal environmental impact statements. It examines a major federal attempt to impose rationalistic reforms on government decision makers and the first view of National Environmental Policy Act reforms.
Author: Paul J. Culhane Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0429709315 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
This book evaluates the predictive accuracy of the forecasts in a sample of federal environmental impact statements. It examines a major federal attempt to impose rationalistic reforms on government decision makers and the first view of National Environmental Policy Act reforms.
Author: Michael C. Dietze Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400885450 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 285
Book Description
An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309095409 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 297
Book Description
With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities is the result of a 2-year effort by 12 social and behavioral scientists, scholars, and practitioners. The report sets research priorities for the social and behavioral sciences as they relate to several different kinds of environmental problems.
Author: Daniel R. Sarewitz Publisher: ISBN: Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 434
Book Description
Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309388805 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 351
Book Description
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author: Virginia H. Dale Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1461214181 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 357
Book Description
This book is unique in identifying and presenting tools to environmental decision-makers to help them improve the quality and clarity of their work. These tools range from software to policy approaches, and from environmental databases to focus groups. Equally of value to environmental managers, and students in environmental risk, policy, economics and law.
Author: J. Scott Armstrong Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This chapter has described tools to improve forecasting of trends and of the effects of interventions. Among these methods, role playing and rule-based forecasting have seldom been used lot environmental forecasting. Role playing is appropriate when forecasting the outcome of a situation involving conflict among various parties. Rule-based forecasting is relevant when the forecasters have time-series data and relevant domain knowledge, and it is especially useful when recent trends conflict with expectations. A key theme running throughout these procedures is objectivity. The attainment of objectivity is critical in the use of judgment. The route to objectivity is through structure, and it is enhanced by using quantitative methods, using structured judgment as an input to these quantitative methods, providing full disclosure, and employing auditing procedures, such as review panels.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309165393 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 296
Book Description
With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities is the result of a 2-year effort by 12 social and behavioral scientists, scholars, and practitioners. The report sets research priorities for the social and behavioral sciences as they relate to several different kinds of environmental problems.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 030917340X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 189
Book Description
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Author: Paul J. Culhane
Author: Paul J. Culhane
Author: Michael C. Dietze
Author: National Research Council
Author: Paul J. Culhane
Author: Daniel R. Sarewitz
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: Virginia H. Dale
Author: J. Scott Armstrong
Author: National Research Council
Author: National Research Council