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Author: Nicholas Rescher Publisher: SUNY Press ISBN: 9780791435533 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 334
Book Description
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Author: Nicholas Rescher Publisher: SUNY Press ISBN: 9780791435533 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 334
Book Description
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Author: Steve Morlidge Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470662212 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 328
Book Description
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
Author: Andreas S. Weigend Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 042997227X Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 665
Book Description
The book is a summary of a time series forecasting competition that was held a number of years ago. It aims to provide a snapshot of the range of new techniques that are used to study time series, both as a reference for experts and as a guide for novices.
Author: Rob J Hyndman Publisher: OTexts ISBN: 0987507117 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 380
Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: David E. Boyce Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 1784713597 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 661
Book Description
Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the
Author: Lewis D. Hopkins Publisher: Lincoln Inst of Land Policy ISBN: 9781558441705 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 374
Book Description
Engaging the future successfully will require the active participation of planners, community leaders, and many individuals, as well as the contributions of students and scholars of planning. To shape any number of possible futures, we must imagine them in advance and understand how they might emerge. Forecasts, scenarios, plans, and projects are four ways of representing, manipulating, and assessing ideas about the future. The chapters in this richly illustrated volume offer a variety of tools and examples to help planners advocate for a new kind of planning--one that allows communities to face uncertain and malleable futures with continuous and deliberative planning activities.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Crown ISBN: 080413670X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309116600 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 136
Book Description
Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Author: Simon Ramo Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional ISBN: 0071626174 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 239
Book Description
“A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.” Los Angeles Times What's Your Next Big Move? At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet--and took their companies with it. Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete. Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities--thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to: Create a comprehensive list of possible scenarios concerning your business Utilize a scoring system to rate each scenario's merit as a serious and useful prediction Develop an effective plan that strategically shapes the future of your organization The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes. No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.
Author: Katy Borner Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262045958 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 227
Book Description
Forecasting the future with advanced data models and visualizations. To envision and create the futures we want, society needs an appropriate understanding of the likely impact of alternative actions. Data models and visualizations offer a way to understand and intelligently manage complex, interlinked systems in science and technology, education, and policymaking. Atlas of Forecasts, from the creator of Atlas of Science and Atlas of Knowledge, shows how we can use data to predict, communicate, and ultimately attain desirable futures. Using advanced data visualizations to introduce different types of computational models, Atlas of Forecasts demonstrates how models can inform effective decision-making in education, science, technology, and policymaking. The models and maps presented aim to help anyone understand key processes and outcomes of complex systems dynamics, including which human skills are needed in an artificial intelligence-empowered economy; what progress in science and technology is likely to be made; and how policymakers can future-proof regions or nations. This Atlas offers a driver's seat-perspective for a test-drive of the future.
Author: Nicholas Rescher
Author: Nicholas Rescher
Author: Steve Morlidge
Author: Andreas S. Weigend
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Author: David E. Boyce
Author: Lewis D. Hopkins
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: National Research Council
Author: Simon Ramo
Author: Katy Borner