Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast GuardPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Labor unions
Languages : en
Pages : 74
Book Description
Forecasting Success
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast GuardPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Labor unions
Languages : en
Pages : 74
Book Description
New Product Development
Author: Robert J. ThomasPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 376
Book Description
Introducing the first of a new line of Portable MBA books focusing on specific subjects vital in today's business circles. Managers learn how to maintain a firm grasp of a project throughout its development, how to forecast more accurately, and ultimately how to ensure the success of a product launch.
Superforecasting
Author: Philip E. TetlockPublisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Forecasting
Author: Jennifer CastlePublisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300244665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
Book Description
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
The Fundamentals of Sales Forecasting
Author: Publisher: Cybellium
ISBN: 1836792026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 277
Book Description
Welcome to the forefront of knowledge with Cybellium, your trusted partner in mastering the cutting-edge fields of IT, Artificial Intelligence, Cyber Security, Business, Economics and Science. Designed for professionals, students, and enthusiasts alike, our comprehensive books empower you to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving digital world. * Expert Insights: Our books provide deep, actionable insights that bridge the gap between theory and practical application. * Up-to-Date Content: Stay current with the latest advancements, trends, and best practices in IT, Al, Cybersecurity, Business, Economics and Science. Each guide is regularly updated to reflect the newest developments and challenges. * Comprehensive Coverage: Whether you're a beginner or an advanced learner, Cybellium books cover a wide range of topics, from foundational principles to specialized knowledge, tailored to your level of expertise. Become part of a global network of learners and professionals who trust Cybellium to guide their educational journey. www.cybellium.com
Principles of Forecasting
Author: J.S. ArmstrongPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792374015
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 880
Book Description
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
New Product Forecasting
Author: Kenneth B. KahnPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317463889
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 177
Book Description
Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.
Practical Business Forecasting
Author: Michael K. EvansPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780631220657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 556
Book Description
Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, Practical Business Forecasting is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting.
Long-range Forecasting and Planning
Author: Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Military
Languages : en
Pages : 208
Book Description
Forecasting Profit
Author: Mike MetcalfePublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461522552
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 354
Book Description
This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts.