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Author: Andreas Bloechlinger Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Measures of volatility implied in option prices are widely believed to be the best available volatility forecasts. In this paper, we examine the information content and predictive power of implied standard deviations derived from EUREX options on the Swiss market index (SMI). Implied volatilities are computed from the Black and Scholes (1973) model as well as the Duan (1995) GARCH option pricing model, a more flexible method to price options. The statistical analysis shows that a combination of implied volatilities from the GARCH option pricing model and daily returns delivers the best results. We find no incremental information in using the model of Black and Scholes or intraday returns. In the medium term, two to three weeks, the implied volatility according to Duan is the single most informative source.
Author: Andreas Bloechlinger Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Measures of volatility implied in option prices are widely believed to be the best available volatility forecasts. In this paper, we examine the information content and predictive power of implied standard deviations derived from EUREX options on the Swiss market index (SMI). Implied volatilities are computed from the Black and Scholes (1973) model as well as the Duan (1995) GARCH option pricing model, a more flexible method to price options. The statistical analysis shows that a combination of implied volatilities from the GARCH option pricing model and daily returns delivers the best results. We find no incremental information in using the model of Black and Scholes or intraday returns. In the medium term, two to three weeks, the implied volatility according to Duan is the single most informative source.
Author: Kpate Adjaoute Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This study compares the performance of the ISD, the GARCH (1,1), the historical volatility estimates and of two lagged trading volume measures for predicting the Swiss Stock Market Index's (SMI) volatility. The ISD has a superior daily informational content than the GARCH(1,1) estimate and retains unbiased but decreasing explanatory power over up to 20 days ahead horizons. Mean and spread daily volume measures play a significant correcting role when forecasting stock market volatility over daily and longer intervals respectively and clearly dominate the GARCH (1,1) forecasts. Their significance emphasizes heterogeneous horizon traders' influence on the SMI volatility time series properties.
Author: John Knight Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 376
Book Description
An aid to understanding the significance of volatility in the financial market, this text details modelling/forecasting techniques and uses a technical survey to define the models of volatility and return and explain the ways to measure risk. Applications in the financial markets are then detailed.
Author: Mehmet Terzioğlu Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand ISBN: 1839624868 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 339
Book Description
The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.
Author: Greg N. Gregoriou Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1420099558 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 654
Book Description
Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel
Author: Luc Bauwens Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470872519 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 566
Book Description
A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author: Andreas Bluemke Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470746793 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 406
Book Description
This book is essential in understanding, investing and risk managing the holy grail of investments - structured products. The book begins by introducing structured products by way of a basic guide so that readers will be able to understand a payoff graphic, read a termsheet or assess a payoff formula, before moving on to the key asset classes and their peculiarities. Readers will then move on to the more advanced subjects such as structured products construction and behaviour during their lifetime. It also explains how to avoid important pitfalls in products across all asset classes, pitfalls that have led to huge losses over recent years, including detailed coverage of counterparty risk, the fall of Lehman Brothers and other key aspects of the financial crisis related to structured products. The second part of the book presents an original approach to implementing structured products in a portfolio. Key features include: A comprehensive list of factors an investor needs to take into consideration before investing. This makes it a great help to any buyer of structured products; Unbiased advice on product investments across several asset classes: equities, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities; Guidance on how to implement structured products in a portfolio context; A comprehensive questionnaire that will help investors to define their own investment preferences, allowing for a greater precision when facing investment decisions; An original approach determining the typical distribution of returns for major product types, essential for product classification and optimal portfolio implementation purposes; Written in a fresh, clear and understandable style, with many figures illustrating the products and very little mathematics. This book will enable you to better comprehend the use of structured products in everyday banking, quickly analyzing a product, assessing which of your clients it suits, and recognizing its major pitfalls. You will be able to see the added value versus the cost of a product and if the payoff is compatible with the market expectations.
Author: Jon Danielsson Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119977118 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 307
Book Description
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Author: Andreas Bloechlinger
Author: Andreas Bloechlinger
Author: Kpate Adjaoute
Author: John Knight
Author: 
Author: Mehmet Terzioğlu
Author: Greg N. Gregoriou
Author: Peter F. Christoffersen
Author: Luc Bauwens
Author: Andreas Bluemke
Author: Jon Danielsson