Forecasting Peaks in the Consumer Price Index PDF Download

Author: Marjorie Schnader
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Price indexes
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 316

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Author: International Labour Office
Publisher: International Labour Organization
ISBN: 9789221136996
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 578

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Book Description
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.

Author: Rendigs Fels
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160

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Book Description
2-part assessment of research methods in respect of forecasting periods of economic recession and economic growth, with particular reference to the USA - comprises (1) an investigation of problems in economic research of forecasting and recognising business cycle peaks and troughs, and (2) an evaluation of the performance of the federal open market committee of the u.s.a. In anticipating and recognising 7 cyclical turns since the 2nd world war. References.

Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer price indexes
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Book Description

Author: Holly Battelle
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437936865
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly evaluates the accuracy of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy¿s actual performance and with others¿ forecasts. Such evaluations help guide CBO¿s efforts to improve the quality of its forecasts and are also intended to assist Members of Congress in their use of the agency¿s estimates. Contents of this report: (1) Choice of Forecasts for the Evaluation; (2) Measuring the Quality of Forecasts: Statistical Bias; Accuracy; Alternative Measures of Forecast Quality; (3) Limitations of Forecast Evaluations: (4) The Effects of Bus. Cycles, Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth, and Oil Price Shocks; (5) Forecasting Record: 2-Year Forecasts; 5-Year Projections; (6) Historical and Forecast Data.

Author: Kajal Lahiri
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521438582
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 488

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Book Description
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

Author: Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Publisher: Ballinger Publishing Company
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496

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Book Description

Author: Jinping Sun
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351565117
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 637

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Book Description
Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.