Author: Siem Jan KoopmanPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Book Description
Forecasting Daily Time Series Using Periodic Unobserved Components Time Series Models
Author: Siem Jan KoopmanTime Series Modelling with Unobserved Components
Author: Matteo M. PelagattiPublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482225018
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 275
Book Description
Despite the unobserved components model (UCM) having many advantages over more popular forecasting techniques based on regression analysis, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA, the UCM is not well known among practitioners outside the academic community. Time Series Modelling with Unobserved Components rectifies this deficiency by giving a practical o
Periodic Time Series Models
Author: Philip Hans FransesPublisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191529265
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 166
Book Description
This book considers periodic time series models for seasonal data, characterized by parameters that differ across the seasons, and focuses on their usefulness for out-of-sample forecasting. Providing an up-to-date survey of the recent developments in periodic time series, the book presents a large number of empirical results. The first part of the book deals with model selection, diagnostic checking and forecasting of univariate periodic autoregressive models. Tests for periodic integration, are discussed, and an extensive discussion of the role of deterministic regressors in testing for periodic integration and in forecasting is provided. The second part discusses multivariate periodic autoregressive models. It provides an overview of periodic cointegration models, as these are the most relevant. This overview contains single-equation type tests and a full-system approach based on generalized method of moments. All methods are illustrated with extensive examples, and the book will be of interest to advanced graduate students and researchers in econometrics, as well as practitioners looking for an understanding of how to approach seasonal data.
Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment
Author: Siem Jan KoopmanTime Series Analysis: Methods and Applications
Author: Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444538631
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 777
Book Description
The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments.The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respective areas
Advanced Analytics and Learning on Temporal Data
Author: Vincent LemairePublisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030390985
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 236
Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th ECML PKDD Workshop on Advanced Analytics and Learning on Temporal Data, AALTD 2019, held in Würzburg, Germany, in September 2019. The 7 full papers presented together with 9 poster papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 31 submissions. The papers cover topics such as temporal data clustering; classification of univariate and multivariate time series; early classification of temporal data; deep learning and learning representations for temporal data; modeling temporal dependencies; advanced forecasting and prediction models; space-temporal statistical analysis; functional data analysis methods; temporal data streams; interpretable time-series analysis methods; dimensionality reduction, sparsity, algorithmic complexity and big data challenge; and bio-informatics, medical, energy consumption, on temporal data.
Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models
Author: Mike WestPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475793650
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 720
Book Description
In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting
Author: Peter J. BrockwellPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475725264
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
Book Description
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Economic Time Series
Author: William R. BellPublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439846588
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 544
Book Description
Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time s
Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications
Author: Tata Subba RaoPublisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444538585
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 778
Book Description
'Handbook of Statistics' is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with volume 30 dealing with time series.