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Author: David R. Bernard Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
An alternative to the current method of forecasting size of the annual terminal run of large (age 1.3-1.5, approximately >659 mm from mid eye to tail fork) Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to the Taku River is demonstrated. Both the current method and the alternative are based on sibling relationships within brood years; however, the alternative is based on median forecasts from power functions with lognormal error. Bayesian analysis using the program WinBUGS was used to avoid bias in forecasted run size from measurement error, and to quantify conditional uncertainty in forecasts. Because of greater imprecision in estimates of annual run size in earlier years, only data from 1995 to 2013 were used to exercise both current and alternative methods. From jackknifed hindcasting the mean percent error for the current method was +13% and +7% for the alternative; the former had two negative predictions. A Bayesian forecast with the alternative method produced the posterior probability distribution for the estimated terminal run size in 2014 with median 24,440 and mean 25,980 large salmon. Management targets under the Pacific Salmon Treaty for Taku fisheries were described, and the forecast posterior probability distribution was used to calculate probabilities of meeting those targets in 2014. Relevance of forecasting with a truncated data series of recent years was discussed. Instructions were given on how to expand the WinBUGS code to produce a forecast for 2015 and for years beyond.
Author: David R. Bernard Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
An alternative to the current method of forecasting size of the annual terminal run of large (age 1.3-1.5, approximately >659 mm from mid eye to tail fork) Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to the Taku River is demonstrated. Both the current method and the alternative are based on sibling relationships within brood years; however, the alternative is based on median forecasts from power functions with lognormal error. Bayesian analysis using the program WinBUGS was used to avoid bias in forecasted run size from measurement error, and to quantify conditional uncertainty in forecasts. Because of greater imprecision in estimates of annual run size in earlier years, only data from 1995 to 2013 were used to exercise both current and alternative methods. From jackknifed hindcasting the mean percent error for the current method was +13% and +7% for the alternative; the former had two negative predictions. A Bayesian forecast with the alternative method produced the posterior probability distribution for the estimated terminal run size in 2014 with median 24,440 and mean 25,980 large salmon. Management targets under the Pacific Salmon Treaty for Taku fisheries were described, and the forecast posterior probability distribution was used to calculate probabilities of meeting those targets in 2014. Relevance of forecasting with a truncated data series of recent years was discussed. Instructions were given on how to expand the WinBUGS code to produce a forecast for 2015 and for years beyond.
Author: Sean D. Larson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the 2022 drainagewide run size and escapement of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The total run was estimated to be 142,495 (95% CI: 107,579–188,743) fish, and escapement was estimated to be 107,980 (95% CI: 73,064–154,228) fish. Model estimates were informed by direct observations of the 2022 escapement at 3 weirs and 2022 harvest, combined with historical observations of escapement (up to 6 weirs and 14 aerial surveys), harvest, test fishery, and mark–recapture data dating back to 1976. Model results are adequate to draw broad conclusions about the 2022 run and escapement. The 2022 total run of Chinook salmon was below the 1976–2021 average of 211,081 fish. The drainagewide sustainable escapement goal of 65,000–120,000 was met in 2022. The 2022 Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon forecast is for a range of 115,000–170,000 fish.
Author: Jeffrey T. Williams Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha smolt abundance and adult escapement will be estimated for the Taku stock of Chinook salmon originating from the Canadian portions of the Taku River drainage above the U.S./Canada border. This large glacial river flows into Taku Inlet about 30 km northeast of Juneau, Alaska. A modified Petersen estimator will be used to estimate smolt abundance for the 2020-2022 brood years, which are the smolt leaving the system during 2022-2024. Chinook salmon smolt will be captured from April through June, systematically sampled to estimate mean length and weight, and all healthy fish will be implanted with a coded wire tag and marked with an adipose fin clip. Escapement of large (≥660 mm; mid eye to fork of tail) and medium (401-659 mm; mid eye to fork of tail) Taku River adult Chinook salmon in 2022-2024 will be estimated using mark-recapture methodology. Adult Chinook salmon will be captured and marked near Canyon Island in the lower Taku River using fish wheels and drift gillnets from late April through early August. Each healthy fish will be tagged with a uniquely numbered, solid-core spaghetti tag and two secondary marks will be applied. Fish will be sampled for data used in age, sex, and length composition estimates of the spawning escapement.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
A cooperative study involving the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and the Taku River Tlingit First Nation was conducted to estimate the number of spawning Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Taku River in 2003 with a mark-recapture experiment. Fish were captured at Canyon Island on the lower Taku River with fish wheels from May through August and were individually marked with back-sewn, solid-core spaghetti tags. All tagged fish were also batch marked with an opercle punch plus removal of the left axillary appendage. Sampling on the spawning grounds in tributaries was used to estimate the fraction of the population that had been marked. The estimated spawning abundance of small Chinook salmon ( 400 mm long; mid-eye to fork of tail) was 3,489 (SE = 1,052). Spawning abundance of medium-size Chinook salmon (401-659 mm) was estimated to be 16,780 (SE = 2,274). Finally, spawning abundance of large-size fish (= 660 mm) was estimated to be 36,435 (SE = 6,705), and the estimated total of all fish was 56,704 (SE = 7,158). The sum of the peak aerial survey counts of large spawning Chinook salmon conducted at five index tributaries of the Taku River was 16% of the mark-recapture estimate. Age 1.3 fish (1998 brood year) constituted an estimated 40% of the spawning population, followed by age 1.2 fish (1999 brood year), which constituted an estimated 29% of the population
Author: Sean D. Larson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the 2021 drainagewide run size and escapement of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The total run was estimated to be 129,751 (95% CI: 94,489–178,171) fish and escapement was estimated to be 101,000 (95% CI: 65,738–149,420) fish. Model estimates were informed by direct observations of the 2021 escapement at 3 weirs and 2021 harvest, combined with historical observations of escapement (up to 6 weirs and 14 aerial surveys), harvest, test fishery, and mark–recapture data dating back to 1976. Model results are adequate to draw broad conclusions about the 2021 run and escapement. The 2021 total run of Chinook salmon was below the 1976–2020 average of 214,475 fish. The drainagewide sustainable escapement goal of 65,000–120,000 was met in 2021. The 2022 Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon forecast is for a range of 99,000–161,000 fish.
Author: E. Eric Knudsen Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0429526369 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 706
Book Description
What has happened to the salmon resource in the Pacific Northwest? Who is responsible and what can be done to reverse the decline in salmon populations? The responsibly falls on everyone involved - fishermen, resource managers and concerned citizens alike - to take the steps necessary to ensure that salmon populations make a full recovery. T
Author: Cory J. Graham Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
Recent reductions in the run sizes of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Southeast Alaska have resulted in social and economic hardships within the region. Pacific salmon yearclass strength may be determined by size-selective processes during the early marine phase of their life cycle; however, the relative importance of growth during freshwater and marine residence in determining recruitment success is unknown. A scale-based retrospective analysis was conducted to examine the effects of freshwater and annual marine growth and early marine conditions on survival to reproductive maturity for female Chinook Salmon by brood year (BY) in the Taku (BYs 1979 – 1985, 1990 – 1999, 2002 – 2004) and Unuk (BYs 1981 – 1983, 1986 – 1988, 1994 – 2003, 2005 – 2006) rivers. First-year marine growth was positively related to survival and total return for Chinook Salmon stocks from both systems. Growth during freshwater residence (i.e., size-at-ocean entry) was not related to survival or total return of either stock. In addition, there was a positive relationship between marine survival of Unuk River Chinook Salmon and sea-surface temperatures in Upper Chatham Strait, Icy Strait, and Auke Bay Monitor (P = 0.04) during early marine residence. The results of my research highlight the importance of growth and marine conditions during the first year at sea in determining the survival of Chinook Salmon in Southeast Alaska and suggest that current declines in run sizes and survival of stocks within this region may be the attributed to poor growth conditions or growth during early marine residence.
Author: Kenneth Roberson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Chinook salmon Languages : en Pages : 142
Book Description
Describes Copper River (Alaska) sockeye and chinook salmon forecasting techniques, including confidence interval determination. Also addressed are corresponding run timing prediction for commercial catch, and total salmon escapement timing for the Miles Lake sonar enumeration site.
Author: David R. Bernard
Author: David R. Bernard
Author: Sean D. Larson
Author: Pacific Salmon Commission
Author: Jeffrey T. Williams
Author: 
Author: Scott Alan McPherson
Author: Sean D. Larson
Author: E. Eric Knudsen
Author: Cory J. Graham
Author: Kenneth Roberson