Forecast Errors and Financial Developments PDF Download

Author: Palle Schelde Andersen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236

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Book Description
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.

Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475576447
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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Book Description
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Budget
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691140138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 566

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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Author: Sylwia Nowak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15

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Book Description
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451943679
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116

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Book Description
This paper examines the World Economic Outlook forecasting record for the principal performance indicators for the major industrial countries and corresponding aggregates and for groups of non-oil developing countries. Several criteria were used in evaluating the forecasts: the computation and evaluation of various summary statistics of forecast accuracy, bias, and efficiency; comparisons with alternative forecasts—naive forecasts and forecasts produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and by national forecasting agencies; the examination of turning-point errors and forecast performance in defined episodes; and, finally, some attempt to explain forecast error in terms of unanticipated developments in policy variables and oil prices. In judging the forecast performance of the World Economic Outlook, a number of points must be kept in mind. Most important, it has to be recognized that the period since the inception of the World Economic Outlook as a regular forecasting exercise has been extraordinarily rich in economic upheavals, which have made the odds against accurate forecasting formidable.

Author: Joshua Yindenaba Abor
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429835256
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 461

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Book Description
Contemporary Issues in Development Finance provides comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of theoretical and policy issues in development finance from both the domestic and the external finance perspectives and emphasizes addressing the gaps in financial markets. The chapters cover topical issues such as microfinance, private sector financing, aid, FDI, remittances, sovereign wealth, trade finance, and the sectoral financing of agricultural and infrastructural projects. Readers will acquire both breadth and depth of knowledge in critical and contemporary issues in development finance from a philosophical and yet pragmatic development impact approach. The text ensures this by carefully integrating the relevant theoretical underpinnings, empirical assessments, and practical policy issues into its analysis. The work is designed to be fully accessible to practitioners with only a limited theoretical economic background, allowing them to deeply engage with the book as useful reference material. Readers may find more advanced information and technical details provided in clear, concise boxes throughout the text. Finally, each chapter is fully supported by a set of review questions and by cases and examples from developing countries, particularly those in Africa. This book is a valuable resource for both development finance researchers and students taking courses in development finance, development economics, international finance, financial development policy, and economic policy management. Practitioners will find the development impact, policy, and conceptual analysis dimensions insightful analysing and designing intervention strategies.