Author: Joshua Aizenman Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The paper compares fiscal cyclicality across regions and countries from 1960 to 2016. It finds that more than half of 170 countries analyzed in seven regions had, in more recent years, limited fiscal space, and that their fiscal policy was either cyclical or procyclical. This was particularly apparent since the 2008−2009 global financial crisis, which was marked by increased procyclical government spending when accounting for net acquisition of nonfinancial assets and capital expenditure. We construct a limited-fiscal-capacity statistic, measured by public debt−average tax revenue ratio and its volatility, which is found to be positively associated with fiscal procyclicality. The cyclicality is asymmetric: on average, a more indebted government (relative to the tax base) spends more in good times and cuts back spending indifferently compared with low-debt countries in bad times. Having sovereign wealth funds is also associated with larger countercyclicality. An enduring interest rate rise entails diminished fiscal space−a 10% increase in the public debt−tax base ratio is associated with an upper bound of a 5.6% increase in government-spending procyclicality.
Author: Corinne Deléchat Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513521810 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
This paper studies the role of fiscal policies and institutions in building resilience in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2013, with specific emphasis on a group of twenty-six countries that were deemed fragile in the 1990s. As the drivers of fragility and resilience are closely intertwined, we use GMM estimation as well as a probabilistic framework to address endogeneity and reverse causality. We find that fiscal institutions and fiscal space, namely the capacity to raise tax revenue and contain current spending, as well as lower military spending and, to some extent, higher social expenditure, are significantly and fairly robustly associated with building resilience. Similar conclusions arise from a study of the progression of a group of seven out of the twenty-six sub- Saharan African countries that managed to build resilience after years of civil unrest and/or violent conflict. These findings suggest relatively high returns to focusing on building sound fiscal institutions in fragile states. The international community can help this process through policy advice, technical assistance, and training on tax administration and budget reforms.
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484330935 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.
Author: Ezequiel Cabezon Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513573470 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available for growth-promoting capital spending. Small states generally face greater revenue volatility than other country groups, owing to their exposure to exogenous shocks (including natural disasters) and narrow production bases. With limited buffers, revenue volatility often results in procyclical fiscal policy as the econometric analysis shows. To strengthen fiscal frameworks, small states should seek to streamline and prioritize recurrent spending to create fiscal space for capital spending. The quality of spending could also be improved through public financial management reform and multiyear budgeting.
Author: Mr.John C Bluedorn Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 149831970X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
Cross-country differences in economic resilience—in an economy’s ability to withstand and adjust to shocks—remain significant in the euro area. In part, the differences reflect the lack of a national nominal exchange rate as a mechanism to adjust to shocks. The IMF staff has argued that union-wide architectural changes such as the banking union, the capital markets union, and a central fiscal capacity can help foster greater international risk sharing. Yet even these changes cannot insure against all shocks. National policies thus have a vital role to play. This IMF staff discussion note analyzes how national structural policies can help euro area countries better deal with economic shocks. Using a mix of empirical and modeling approaches, the note finds that growth-enhancing reforms to labor and product market regulations, tailored to country-specific circumstances, would help individual euro area economies weather adverse shocks. Higher-quality insolvency regimes are associated with more efficient factor reallocation following a shock. The note also finds that structural and cyclical policies interact. Greater rigidities make economies more fragile, putting a higher burden on fiscal policy. This is especially true for members of a monetary union. Countries should build fiscal space in good times and tackle rigidities, reducing their need for countercyclical policies in bad times while making countercyclical policies more effective when deployed.
Author: The World Bank Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Burundi Languages : en Pages : 207
Book Description
"Burundi has made tremendous progress over the past few years, including: the approval of the new Constitution in 2005, emphasizing the principles of power sharing and local development; the successful management of two rounds of democratic elections in 2005 and 2010’; and the creation of stable macroeconomic environment, which encouraged rebuilding of core public sector institutions. Despite these achievements, the report notes that economic growth remains weak and GSP rates are below expectations. Burundi is therefore vulnerable to different sources of risks conspiring to create a ‘fragility trap’ into which the economy can fall. Chief amongst them are: (i) food price volatility linked to international markets and climatic conditions: (ii) oil prices that affect the import bill of the country; (iii) high level of dependency on aid inflows; (iv) low budget execution capacity, coupled with weak state effectiveness and under-performing public institutions; (v) constraints on productive activity and a highly concentrated export profile; and (vi) enduring risks of political and social instability linked to the return of refugees and its impact on land conflicts and security threats. In this context, the main objectives of this Public Expenditure Review is to assist the Government in its efforts to escape fragility by focusing on two important and complementary themes: (i) creating adequate fiscal space to reduce the impact of future shocks; and (ii) using the available fiscal space to improve public expenditure management and promote government effectiveness. Building on these topics, the report emphasizes six key messages : (i) Burundi has a narrow fiscal space given the structure of its public expenditures, composed mainly of salaries and transfers; (ii) the country should mobilize additional domestic revenues to increase its fiscal space; (iii) the role of donors in supporting effective management of public expenditures remain critical and can also be the source of additional fiscal stress, especially when budget support arrives late in a fiscal year; (iv) accessing high quality budget data remains a challenge due to major incoherencies between data from the Treasury database and data published by SIGEFI; (v) the aid management is not properly integrated into budget execution process; (vi) it is advisable to adopt realistic and pragmatic solutions to improve the performance of the public administration, while keeping the wage bill under control. "
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498309046 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
This paper reviews the experience with the fiscal space assessment framework that was piloted during 2017–18. In 2016, staff proposed an operational definition of fiscal space and a new four-stage framework for its assessment. These were discussed informally by the Board in June, and a Board paper “Assessing Fiscal Space: An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations” incorporating Directors’ views was published in December. Fiscal space was narrowly defined as the room for undertaking discretionary fiscal policy relative to existing plans without endangering market access and debt sustainability. The framework was developed in response to the need to provide a more systematic approach to assessing fiscal space in the Fund’s surveillance. It was designed as a tool to inform the availability of fiscal space over a 3 to 4 year horizon for discretionary action, as opposed to the optimality of its use. Indeed, it was stressed that the availability of space does not necessarily mean that it should be used or should not be further expanded. The framework was piloted in the Article IV consultations of 34 advanced economies and emerging markets, comprising almost 80 percent of global GDP in PPP terms.
Author: OECD Publisher: OECD Publishing ISBN: 9264233385 Category : Languages : en Pages : 264
Book Description
The health systems we enjoy today, and expected medical advances in the future, will be difficult to finance from public resources without major reforms. Public health spending in OECD countries has grown rapidly over most of the last half century. These spending increases have contributed to ...
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498344658 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 257
Book Description
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Author: Mr.Enrique Gelbard Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513550012 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 99
Book Description
This paper analyzes the persistence of fragility in some sub-Saharan African states and the multiple dimensions of state weakness that are simultaneously at play. This study also provides an overview of the analytics of fragility, conflict, and international engagement with fragile states before turning to an assessment of the current state of affairs and the areas in which there has been progress in building resilience. The paper also looks at the role of fiscal policies and institutions and analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations. Seven country case studies help identify more concretely some key factors at play, and the diversity of paths followed, with an emphasis on the sequencing of reforms. The paper concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications.
Author: Joshua Aizenman
Author: Corinne Deléchat
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Author: Ezequiel Cabezon
Author: Mr.John C Bluedorn
Author: The World Bank
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Author: OECD
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr.Enrique Gelbard