Firm-level and Local Labor Market Effects of a Large Credit Shock PDF Download

Author: Carlos Henrique Corseuil
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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A common explanation for the poor performance of entrepreneurs in developing economies is their inability to obtain credit to expand their scale of operation. This paper assesses the aggregate impacts of the Cartão BNDES, a credit line targeted at small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Brazil, to investigate the role of credit constraints on SMEs performance. We use a major expansion of credit supply within the line to estimate causal effects of credit supply on firm size distribution, entry and exit, and employment. By exploiting the fact that firms can only use the available credit with suppliers that are registered in the credit line's system, we construct a variable that capture a credit supply expansion that varies exogenously across regions. We use an instrumental variable estimator that exploits differential access to the line and the expansion of suppliers to recover these causal effects. Our main result points that a 1% increase in the Brazilian Development Bank (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social - BNDES) card loans has a positive effect on average local formal employment between 6.7% and 10.3%. This increase in employment is driven by the increase in the average size of firms, specially by the average size of new entrant firms. These are relevant results as they suggest that the type of credit provided by BNDES card foster the dynamics of local labor markets, increasing the entrance of new firms, which are pointed as the group most affected by credit constrains.

Author: Francesco Manaresi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498315917
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 75

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We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.

Author: Alberto Alesina
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262261472
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 197

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A provocative argument that unless Europe takes serious action soon, its economic and political decline is unavoidable, and a clear statement of the steps Europe must take before it's too late. Unless Europe takes action soon, its further economic and political decline is almost inevitable, economists Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi write in this provocative book. Without comprehensive reform, continental Western Europe's overprotected, overregulated economies will continue to slow—and its political influence will become negligible. This doesn't mean that Italy, Germany, France, and other now-prosperous countries will become poor; their standard of living will remain comfortable. But they will become largely irrelevant on the world scene. In The Future of Europe, Alesina and Giavazzi (themselves Europeans) outline the steps that Europe must take to prevent its economic and political eclipse. Europe, the authors say, has much to learn from the market liberalism of America. Europeans work less and vacation more than Americans; they value job stability and security above all. Americans, Alesina and Giavazzi argue, work harder and longer and are more willing to endure the ups and downs of a market economy. Europeans prize their welfare states; Americans abhor government spending. America is a melting pot; European countries—witness the November 2005 unrest in France—have trouble absorbing their immigrant populations. If Europe is to arrest its decline, Alesina and Giavazzi warn, it needs to adopt something closer to the American free-market model for dealing with these issues. Alesina and Giavazzi's prescriptions for how Europe should handle worker productivity, labor market regulation, globalization, support for higher education and technology research, fiscal policy, and its multiethnic societies are sure to stir controversy, as will their eye-opening view of the European Union and the euro. But their wake-up call will ring loud and clear for anyone concerned about the future of Europe and the global economy.

Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms' employment, hours and wages following tighter local labor market conditions. We find that employment and hours per worker fall and wages rise. This is consistent with the predictions of the response to a demand shock in the well-known “jobs ladder” model of labor markets. To check this interpretation, we show our results hold when instrumenting for local demand using county-level Department of Defense contract spending. Correction for dynamic sample bias is important -- without it, the hours fall by only one third as much and wages increase by double.

Author: Xavier Giroud
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Local labor market shocks are difficult to insure against. Using confidential micro data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database, we document that firms redistribute the employment impacts of local demand shocks across regions through their internal networks of establishments. During the Great Recession, the massive decline in house prices caused a sharp drop in consumer demand, leading to large employment losses in the non-tradable sector. Consistent with firms smoothing out the impacts of these shocks across regions, we find large elasticities of non-tradable establishment-level employment with respect to house prices in other counties in which the firm has establishments. At the same time, establishments of firms with larger regional networks exhibit lower employment elasticities with respect to local house prices in the establishment's own county. To account for general equilibrium adjustments, we aggregate non-tradable employment at the county level. Similar to what we found at the establishment level, we find that non-tradable county-level employment responds strongly to local demand shocks in other counties linked through firms' internal networks. These results are not driven by direct demand spillovers from nearby counties, common shocks to house prices, or local demand shocks affecting non-tradable employment in distant counties indirectly via the trade channel. Our results suggest that firms play an important role in the extent to which local labor market risks are shared across regions.

Author: Effrosyni Adamopoulou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This paper studies the long term consequences on workers' labour earnings of the credit crunch induced by the 2007-2008 financial crisis. We study the evolution of both employment and wages in a large sample of Italian workers followed for nine years after the start of the crisis. We rely on a unique matched bank-employer-employee administrative dataset to construct a firm-specific shock to credit supply, which identifies firms that, because of the collapse of the interbank market during the financial crisis, were unexpectedly aected by credit restrictions. We find that workers who were employed before the crisis in firms more exposed to the credit crunch experience persistent and sizable earnings losses, mainly due to a permanent drop in days worked. These effects are heterogeneous across workers, with high-type workers being more affected in the long run. Moreover, firms operating in areas with favorable labor market conditions react to the credit shock by hoarding high-type workers and displacing low-type ones. Under unfavorable labor market conditions instead, firms select to displace also high-type (and therefore more expensive) workers, even though wages do react to the slack. All in all, our results document persistent eects on the earnings distribution.

Author: Orley Ashenfelter
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 9780444501899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 800

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A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.

Author: Oscar Alejandro Mendez Medina
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781339065502
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This dissertation consists of a series of papers studying the effect that globalization in its multiple forms has had on Mexican local labor markets. In Chapter 1, 'Trade Shocks and Mexican Local Labor Markets in the Great Recession', I study the role that international trade played in the transmission of the U.S. credit crisis to Mexican local labor markets. The economic opening process that Mexico started by opening up to international trade in the mid-1980s when it became a member of the GATT, and then reinforced in 1994 when NAFTA was enacted, has created a strong link between the business cycles of Mexico and the United States (Robertson, 2000). This trade-driven phenomenon has had significant consequences for Mexico's economic geography (Hanson, 1996). In particular, easier access to the U.S. market increased the level of dependence on exports to the U.S. for some Mexican municipalities. This increase in dependence was not homogenous throughout the country, mostly due to differences by municipality in transportation costs and industry specialization. This heterogeneity, plus the evolution of U.S. trade during the Great Recession (2007-2009), which involved a $40 billion drop in U.S. imports from Mexico, allows me to identify the role that these trade linkages played in the transmission of the crisis to Mexican local labor markets. I show that differences in manufacturing industry structure caused by Mexico's opening process have made a subset of Mexican municipalities especially vulnerable to economic events in the U.S. I find that Mexican regions that exported relatively more to the U.S. experienced large and significant differential effects when compared to municipalities more focused on the domestic market. Mexican regions with significant ties to the U.S. market experienced, during the crisis, a significantly larger decrease in employment and wages, and greater within local labor market adjustments than their less open counterparts, mainly characterized by large drops in manufacturing employment and significant increases in employment in the service and agricultural industries. Pursuing the same line of research, the second chapter of my dissertation explores 'The Effect of Chinese Import Competition on Mexican Local Labor Markets'. Recent estimates of the effect of globalization on labor markets have found that trade is having an increasingly larger impact on wage inequality. Particularly relevant is the "China Syndrome" study by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013a), which presents evidence on the disruptive effects that import competition can have on a developed economy by estimating the impact that Chinese import competition had on U.S. local labor markets. One would expect to find that Chinese exports also had a large and significant effect on developing economies, particularly on those specialized in the production of labor-intensive goods. My paper contributes to the study of this relationship by analyzing the Mexican case. Following the methodology introduced in Autor et al. (2013a), I exploit variation across Mexican regions in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization in order to estimate the effect Chinese competition had on local Mexican labor markets. Also, by taking advantage of the Mexican exports' high dependence on the U.S. market, I estimate the effect that China-caused trade diversion had on Mexican labor markets. I find that the increase in competition decreased the employment share in manufacturing for the average Mexican local labor market. This effect was found to be larger for regions with high exposure to Chinese competition in the U.S. market, showing that there was a significant, negative indirect effect from China's trade growth. Workers' mobility also increased due to this negative shock. I name the third chapter 'Mexican Migrants' Response to a Trade Shock'. This study exploits the variation created by Chinese import competition across Mexican states and combines it with variation across U.S. states in their likelihood of receiving Mexican migrants in order to yield a causal estimate of the variation in the Mexican share of the labor force across U.S. states. The purpose of this study is both to determine whether international migration can be affected by external trade shocks, a topic very scantily studied in the economic literature of both trade and migration, and to open the doors to a study of migration effects on the receiving economy by using a plausibly exogenous shock to migration, as is the increase in import competition by China. I find that the increase in Mexican imports from China had a significant effect on Mexican workers' mobility towards the U.S. labor markets.

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author: Fabio Berton
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475579012
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57

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Book Description
We analyze the employment effects of financial shocks using a rich data set of job contracts, matched with the universe of firms and their lending banks in one Italian region. To isolate the effect of the financial shock we construct a firm-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. The contraction in credit supply explains one fourth of the reduction in employment. This result is concentrated in more levered and less productive firms. Also, the relatively less educated and less skilled workers with temporary contracts are the most affected. Our results are consistent with the cleansing role of financial shocks.