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Author: Marzie Taheri Sanjani Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498347797 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.
Author: Marzie Taheri Sanjani Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498347797 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.
Author: Zulfiqar Hyder Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The great recession that started in 2007, has not only changed the perspective of the macroeconomic literature about the role of financial frictions within the canonical New Keynesian (henceforth, NK) monetary models but also has rekindled the debate about sources of business cycle fluctuations. This dissertation, comprising of three self-contained essays, makes theoretical and empirical contributions to the emerging strands of literature incorporating financial frictions in the NK monetary models. The first essay (Chapter 2) of this dissertation extends traditional optimal monetary policy analysis to NK models with capital and financial frictions. In the case of a negative productivity shock, the chapter finds that: 1) a standard inflation targeting rule dominates the Taylor rule in both NK models without capital and with capital as it approximates the welfare level associated with the Ramsey policy; 2) in the NK model with capital and with financial frictions, the relative performance of the economy under standard inflation targeting is much better compared to alternative policies because it approximates Ramsey monetary policy. In the case of a financial shock, the chapter shows that the inflation targeting rule provides a welfare level that is close to the welfare level achieved under optimal monetary policy under commitment. In addition, Ramsey policy under commitment performs well in response to a financial shock, compared to alternative monetary policy regimes, by aggressively minimizing the impact of financial constraints on the interest rate spread. The second essay (Chapter 3) estimates the importance of financial shocks in business cycle fluctuations for the US economy using structural VAR models. In that chapter, financial and non-financial shocks are identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions based on the two competing NK models: the standard NK model augmented with a financial accelerator and the NK model augmented with financial intermediaries. Estimation results show that a financial shock, emanating both from entrepreneur's net worth and financial intermediaries net worth, is prominent in explaining fluctuations in real output and interest rate spread. As far as the relative importance of these two financial shocks is concerned, the following results stand out. A financial shock related to the demand side is relatively the major driver of output fluctuations in both time horizons while financial shocks related to financial intermediaries explain a moderate variation in output fluctuations in both time horizons. In addition, financial shocks related to financial intermediaries account for a relatively larger share of interest rate spread fluctuations at both time horizons compared to a financial shock related to the demand side. The third essay (Chapter 4) extends Gertler and Karadi's model (2011) into a two-sector setting. The Two-Sector Financial Accelerator model not only helps to incorporate the differences in the leverage ratios of commercial and investment banks but also introduces additional shocks that capture some features of the sub-prime financial crisis in the simulated economy. The results also show that output recovery would remain slow in the simulated economy as long as the relative price of non-consumption goods is not recovered to its trend.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513536990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Francesco Furlanetto Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498305326 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure of output gap that accounts for frictions in financial market. Furthermore we illustrate that, in the presence of financial frictions, a benevolent central bank faces a substantial trade-off between nominal and real stabilization; optimal monetary policy significantly reduces fluctuations in price and wage inflations but fails to alleviate the output gap volatility. This suggests a role for macroprudential policies.
Author: Seungho Nah Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 129
Book Description
Abstract: In the first essay, 'Financial Frictions, Intersectoral Adjustment Costs, and News-Driven Business Cycles', I show that an RBC model with financial frictions and intersectoral adjustment costs can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and plausible responses of stock prices in response to a news shock. Booms in the labor market, which make it possible for both consumption and investment to increase in response to positive news, are caused through two channels: the increases in value of marginal product of labor and the increases in value of collateral. Both of these channels enable firms to hire more workers. Intersectoral adjustment costs contribute to both channels by increasing the relative price of output and capital during expansions. Financial frictions enter in the forms of collateral constraints on firms, which influence the latter channel, and the financial accelerator mechanism driven by agency costs, which amplifies all the key variables. My model differs from previous studies in its ability to generate boom-bust cycles without restricting the functional form of consumption in household preferences and without requiring investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilization, or any nominal rigidities. In the second essay, 'Financial and Real Frictions as Sources of Business Fluctuations', I show that a negative shock to a financial or real friction in an economy can generate quantitatively significant and persistent recessions, even without a decrease in exogenous aggregate total factor productivity in a heterogeneous agents DSGE model. The increase in uncertainty that a firm is facing when it makes capital adjustment, however, is found to have a limited or dubious influence on economic activities. The roles of collateral constaints as a financial friction and nonconvex capital adjustment costs as a real friction in aggregate fluctuations are examined in this propagation mechanism. When these frictions become strengthened, the degree of capital misallocation is intensified, which leads to a drop of endogenous aggregate total factor productivity. As agents expect that the return to investment and endogenous TFP decrease, they reduce aggregate investment sharply, which also leads to a drop in employment. Interruption of efficient resource allocation coming from these two frictions is found out to be enough to generate a large and persistent aggregate flucutations even without introducing heterogeneity in firm-level productivity.
Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484324013 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.
Author: Marzie Taheri Sanjani Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498320759 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455259381 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatile as income for both developed and emerging market economies. The simulation of the model implies that shocks to trend play a less important role than previously documented. Financial frictions improve the ability of the model to match some key business cycle properties of emerging economies. A countercyclical borrowing premium interacts with the nature of durable goods delivering highly volatile consumption and very countercyclical net exports.
Author: Jean-François Rouillard Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 298
Book Description
This dissertation investigates the effects of frictions that emerge from financial markets on business-cycle fluctuations. The purpose of Chapter 1 is to situate my work in the literature and to stress its contributions. In Chapter 2, I reassess the role of financial frictions in amplifying the impacts of productivity shocks using a framework in which a fraction of firms are borrowing-constrained and land is a collateral asset. A first finding is that amplification effects are much lower when land is supplied elastically. However, financial shocks that affect the maximum allowable ratio of loans to collateral have greater effects on output. Another result pertains to the role of the elasticity of substitution between land and capital in responses to financial shocks: lower values generate greater output responses. While Chapter 2's environment is set up to be in a closed-economy, the last two chapters involve two-country settings. Chapter 3 still intersects with Chapter 2 on some dimensions, in particular, land dynamics and financial frictions that feature borrowing-constrained firms. The borrowing mechanism brings about a distortion in labour markets that interacts with a class of preferences that are non-separable between consumption and leisure. Technology shocks contribute to explain international co-movements, whereas financial shocks allow the model to replicate the lack of international risk sharing that is characterized by the quantity anomaly and the Backus-Smith puzzle. In Chapter 4, I apply Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan's (2007) business cycle accounting method to a two-country, two-good real business cycle model. Using their approach, I measure the same closed-economy time-varying wedges and I introduce an international wedge that accounts for discrepancies between the growth in real exchange rates and in the stochastic discount factors ratio. In fact, the effects of financial frictions embedded in Chapter 3's framework can be retrieved from a combination of labour and investment wedges. The volatility of the international wedge corresponds to a metric of bilateral risk sharing. An important finding is that, from a non-separable preferences specification of the baseline model, the investment wedge partly accounts for the Backus-Smith puzzle. This suggests that distortions in national capital markets are important to consider for international risk sharing.
Author: Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Author: Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Author: Zulfiqar Hyder
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Author: Francesco Furlanetto
Author: Seungho Nah
Author: A. W. Mullineux
Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Author: Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Jean-François Rouillard