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Author: Brendan Epstein Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484303954 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
Amid total factor productivity (TFP) shocks job-to-job flows amplify the volatility of unemployment, but the aggregate implications of job-to-job flows amid financial shocks are less understood. To develop such understanding we model a general equilibrium labor-search framework that incorporates on-the-job (OTJ) search and distinctly accounts for the differential impact of TFP and financial shocks. Surprisingly, we find that the interaction of OTJ search with financial shocks is sufficiently different from its interaction with TFP shocks so that, under standard calibrations, our model generates aggregate dynamics exceedingly in line with the behavior of key U.S. macro data across several decades and in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis as well. Importantly, as in the data, the model yields relatively high volatilities of consumption, labor income, and unemployment. As such, our work contributes to resolving two limitations of current general equilibrium labor-search theory: under standard calibrations models without OTJ search generate implausibly low unemployment volatility, while models with OTJ search generate unemployment volatility closer to the data but at the expense of implausibly low consumption and labor-income volatility.
Author: Brendan Epstein Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484303954 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
Amid total factor productivity (TFP) shocks job-to-job flows amplify the volatility of unemployment, but the aggregate implications of job-to-job flows amid financial shocks are less understood. To develop such understanding we model a general equilibrium labor-search framework that incorporates on-the-job (OTJ) search and distinctly accounts for the differential impact of TFP and financial shocks. Surprisingly, we find that the interaction of OTJ search with financial shocks is sufficiently different from its interaction with TFP shocks so that, under standard calibrations, our model generates aggregate dynamics exceedingly in line with the behavior of key U.S. macro data across several decades and in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis as well. Importantly, as in the data, the model yields relatively high volatilities of consumption, labor income, and unemployment. As such, our work contributes to resolving two limitations of current general equilibrium labor-search theory: under standard calibrations models without OTJ search generate implausibly low unemployment volatility, while models with OTJ search generate unemployment volatility closer to the data but at the expense of implausibly low consumption and labor-income volatility.
Author: Ojo, Marianne Publisher: IGI Global ISBN: 1522541322 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 436
Book Description
Country’s affairs are greatly impacted by shifts in government; thus, the availability of research on current happenings within governmental policy and relations is imperative to keep citizens informed. Uncertainties and Risk Assessment in Trade Relations presents an innovative examination of the ambiguities of foreign importing and exporting and its impact on governmental aspects such as global relations and financial stability. Featuring coverage on a range of topics including border adjustment, tax reforms, and liquidity regulation, this publication is targeted towards academicians, researchers, and students interested in the recent happenings and opinions of international trade.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484315294 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 19
Book Description
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513536990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475561008 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: World Bank Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464814414 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 254
Book Description
Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 100
Book Description
The euro area economy has been resilient in the face of multiple, large shocks, including the pandemic, Russia’s gas shut-off, and fallout from the war in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the adverse shocks have had persistent effects which shape economic prospects. Energy-intensive industries, in particular, have struggled to adjust to higher input costs and continue to underperform. Despite subdued overall activity, employment growth remains robust. Inflation has declined significantly from its late-2022 peak in response to the ECB’s policy tightening and the decline in commodity prices.
Author: OECD Publisher: OECD Publishing ISBN: 9264362851 Category : Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
The crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike any other the world has experienced, requiring social distancing and restrictions on mobility, and rendering some economic activity impossible. This publication explores and compares the characteristics that have affected the ability of firms, workers and consumers to maintain production, employment and consumption during the COVID-19 crisis, across industries and countries.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 116
Book Description
Global current account balances—the overall size of current account deficits and surpluses—continued to widen in 2021 to 3.5 percent of world GDP, and are expected to widen again this year. The IMF’s multilateral approach suggests that global excess balances narrowed to 0.9 percent of world GDP in 2021 compared with 1.2 percent of world GDP in 2020. The pandemic has continued to affect economies’ current account balances unevenly through the travel and transportation sectors as well as a shift from services to goods consumption. Commodity prices recovered from the COVID-19 shock and started rising in 2021 with opposite effects on the external position of exporters and importers, a trend that the war in Ukraine is exacerbating in 2022. The medium-term outlook for global current account balances is a gradual narrowing as the impact of the pandemic fades away, commodity prices normalize, and fiscal consolidation in current account deficit economies progresses. However, this outlook is highly uncertain and subject to several risks. Policies to promote external rebalancing differ with positions and needs of individual economies.
Author: Brendan Epstein
Author: Brendan Epstein
Author: Ojo, Marianne
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Author: Peter B. Doeringer
Author: World Bank
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Author: OECD
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.