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Author: Karin Lin-Greenberg Publisher: University of Georgia Press ISBN: 0820346861 Category : Fiction Languages : en Pages : 188
Book Description
Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Author: Karin Lin-Greenberg Publisher: University of Georgia Press ISBN: 0820346861 Category : Fiction Languages : en Pages : 188
Book Description
Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Author: Dana Nuccitelli Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA ISBN: Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 283
Book Description
This book explains the science of climate change in plain language and shows that the 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists who are skeptical that humans are the main cause of global warming are a fringe minority—and have a well-established history of being wrong. Although some politicians, pundits, and members of the public do not believe it, global warming predictions by mainstream climate scientists have been remarkably accurate while those made by climate deniers have not. And if mainstream global warming predictions continue to prove correct, the window of opportunity to prevent a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. This book is the first to illustrate the accuracy—and inaccuracy—of global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and by climate contrarians from the 1970s to the present day. Written in simple, non-technical language that provides an accessible explanation of key climate science concepts, the book will appeal to general audiences without previous knowledge about climate science. Author Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist and risk assessor, discusses some key climate discoveries dating back to the 19th century and debunks myths such as the idea that climate scientists and climate models have grossly over-predicted global warming. He addresses recent findings of a 97-percent consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that humans are causing global warming—a nearly unanimous agreement that formed in the early 1990s and has grown through the present day. Nuccitelli also discusses what the future climate might look like if current trends continue unabated, and what we as a global society need to do to prevent a climate catastrophe.
Author: Milkyway Media Publisher: Milkyway Media ISBN: Category : Study Aids Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
Buy now to get the main key ideas from David Robson's The Expectation Effect Science journalist David Robson argues that our beliefs and expectations profoundly shape our health, well-being, and performance in The Expectation Effect (2022). He highlights scientific studies and real-life examples demonstrating how our thoughts affect outcomes. Robson shows how expectations influence fitness, diet, stress, and cognitive abilities. He also offers techniques that can harness the power of expectations for better health and performance.
Author: Dan Gardner Publisher: McClelland & Stewart ISBN: 0771035217 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 319
Book Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Crown ISBN: 080413670X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Everest Media, Publisher: Everest Media LLC ISBN: 1669355993 Category : Self-Help Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 The brain is a prediction machine that constructs an elaborate simulation of the world based on its expectations and previous experiences. These simulations usually coincide with objective reality, but they can sometimes stray far from what is actually in the physical world. #2 The brain’s visual cortex is wired with many neural connections feeding in predictions from other regions of the brain. The eye is a small but essential element of your vision, while the rest of what you see is created in the dark within your skull. #3 The brain’s reliance on prediction helps us deal with incredible ambiguity. If you look at the image below, you will struggle to identify anything recognizable. But if you see the original image, it suddenly becomes a lot clearer. #4 The brain can also predict the effects of our movements, so that we don’t jump out of our skin whenever one of our legs brushes against the other. However, there will always be some small errors in each brain’s simulation of the world around us.
Author: Leon Festinger Publisher: Pinter & Martin Publishers ISBN: 1905177194 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 242
Book Description
In 1954 Leon Festinger, a brilliant young experimental social psychologist in the process of outlining a new theory of human behavior - the theory of cognitive dissonance - and his colleagues infiltrated a cult who believed the end of the world was only months away. How would these people feel when their prophecy remained unfulfilled? Would they admit the error of their prediction, or would they readjust their reality to make sense of the new circumstances?
Author: William A. Sherden Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780471181781 Category : Biography & Autobiography Languages : en Pages : 330
Book Description
Ein Klassiker jetzt neu als Broschurausgabe. Das Erstellen von Zukunftsprognosen ist ein millionenschweres Geschaft. Doch haufig entstehen Zweifel an der Zuverlassigkeit der Vorhersagen. Sherden entlarvt falsche Prophezeiungen und trennt die Tatsachen von Trugschlussen, um den Leser zu zeigen, wie man Prognosen am besten nutzt und wie man sich die "Rosinen" herauspickt. Eine faszinierende Lekture, mit einer Unmenge erkennbarer, offensichtlicher Tatsachen und handfester Beispiele. (12/99)
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9810226004 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 706
Book Description
This volume contains selected papers of Lawrence R Klein in economics, econometric theory and applications in modeling, forecasting, macroeconomic analysis, international economics and public policy. Nobel Laureate Lawrence Klein's bibliography spans a half-century, including books, articles, and chapters in conference proceedings, festschriften, and thematic books. One such volume of solely scientific collections, mainly from his relatively early articles, has already been published. The present volume is different, it includes some articles, but largely chapters, or book excerpts that were mostly written since 1980, the approximate cut-off date of the prior volume, and the year of his Nobel Prize. Also, it includes things that were published in very limited or obscure editions. Thus it provides a more complete picture of his scholarly career and his current reflections on the state of economic science. All these writings are in the vanguard of thinking about economics in a global domain.The thirty-five-plus selections are organized in five parts, by major themes. An editorial commentary introduces each part. The introductory chapters include Klein's autobiographical research commentary, and his professional life philosophy.
Author: Clement A. Tisdell Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 1800377843 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 160
Book Description
Offering a concise and engaging overview of the concepts of bounded rationality and their applications, this stimulating Advanced Introduction engages with the topic in a constructively critical manner, introducing new ideas. Chapters cover key topics including: optimally imperfect decisions; ecological rationality; the role of bounded rationality in evolutionary economics; satisficing as a response to bounded rationality; desirable types of economic decisions; the relational exercise of foresight; and the impact of bounded rationality of the efficiency of organizations.
Author: Karin Lin-Greenberg
Author: Karin Lin-Greenberg
Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Author: Milkyway Media
Author: Dan Gardner
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Everest Media,
Author: Leon Festinger
Author: William A. Sherden
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein
Author: Clement A. Tisdell