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Market Expectations and Option Prices

Market Expectations and Option Prices PDF Author: Martin Mandler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642574289
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227

Book Description
This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .

Market Expectations and Option Prices

Market Expectations and Option Prices PDF Author: Martin Mandler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642574289
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227

Book Description
This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .

Volatility and Time Series Econometrics

Volatility and Time Series Econometrics PDF Author: Mark Watson
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199549494
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 432

Book Description
A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics

New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments

New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments PDF Author: Paul Söderlind
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial instruments
Languages : en
Pages : 64

Book Description
This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently only the means but the whole (risk neutral) probability distribution from a set of option prices.

Options Markets

Options Markets PDF Author: John C. Cox
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 518

Book Description
Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.

Estimating Expectations of Shocks Using Option Prices

Estimating Expectations of Shocks Using Option Prices PDF Author: Antonio Di Cesare
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 40

Book Description


Quantitative Analysis in Financial Markets

Quantitative Analysis in Financial Markets PDF Author: Marco Avellaneda
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9789810237899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 390

Book Description
This volume contains lectures delivered at the Seminar in Mathematical Finance at the Courant Institute, New York University. Subjects covered include: the emerging science of pricing and hedging derivative securities, managing financial risk, and price forecasting using statistics.

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options PDF Author: Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540427452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232

Book Description
A flexible instrument to insure against adverse exchange rate movements are options on foreign currency. Often a relatively simple foreign currency option valuation model is used to address issues related to the pricing and hedging of such options. The results of many empirical studies document that real-world foreign currency option premia deviate from those predicted by the baseline model. In the first part of the book, it is shown that a noise trader model can help to explain the observed mispricing of the baseline foreign currency option pricing model. In the second part of the book, it is studied how policymakers can exploit the pricing errors of the baseline model. In particular, it is examined how option pricing theory can be applied to assess the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. To this end, a model is constructed to analyze the effectiveness of the interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period.

The Options Edge

The Options Edge PDF Author: Michael C. Khouw
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119212413
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 358

Book Description
Capture the fortune you're losing with every trade by learning to exploit options The Options Edge + Free Trial shows you how to capture the fortune you lose out on every day. Buying and selling traditional investments often entails instruments with optionality. Sometimes this optionality is explicit, while other times it is hidden. If you're not leveraging these embedded options to their fullest advantage, you're losing money. Most retail investors don't truly understand the nuances involved in successful options trading and instead rely on more comfortable instruments with fewer complex mechanics. If you're interested in optimizing your portfolio, it's time to step out of your comfort zone and learn what you've been missing. This book gives you the background you need to take full advantage of options in this booming market. The companion website features easy to use analytical tools that help investors find the best opportunities so you can start applying these methods right away. Whether or not you ultimately decide to start actively trading options, the concepts discussed will make you a better all-around trader with greater security in your financial affairs. Most investors buy and sell options every day without ever knowing it. This book relates stories of those who have leveraged options to make fortunes and those who have lost by not understanding the optionality of their financial endeavors. You must know the fundamentals of options, and then learn to recognize hidden options, in order to improve success in all of your investment activities. After taking these steps, you can go on to: Create hidden options at little or no cost Structure your finances to reduce risk and increase wealth Utilize a practical pricing model for smarter investing The listed options are currently the only growing exchange traded financial product in the developed markets, with a current average volume of 20 million contracts—equivalent to 2 billion shares—per day. Now is the perfect opportunity to fortify your finances, and The Options Edge + Free Trial gives you the understanding and practical tools you need to optimize your portfolio today.

Governing Global Derivatives

Governing Global Derivatives PDF Author: Chiara Oldani
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1351932519
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 230

Book Description
Governing Global Derivatives analyzes the role of the most important financial innovation of the last two decades - financial derivatives - in a global dimension. The evolution of derivatives, especially Over the Counter (OTC), and the possibility of managing risks tailored to customers' needs, are the basic recipe for the success of derivatives. This book focuses on the role of derivatives from a macroeconomic point of view, considering how monetary theory and policy, fiscal policy and the growth process are affected. It fills a gap by rethinking the way financial markets are considered in the macroeconomy and the transmission mechanism of impulses.

Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion

Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion PDF Author: Jens Carsten Jackwerth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

Book Description