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Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 19
Book Description
Previous studies have argued that longer civil wars have been caused by ethnically polarized societies, since rebel cohesion is easier and more lasting with polarization. This study shows that external interventions tend to reduce the cost of coordinating a rebellion (or of fighting a rebellion), thereby lengthening the duration of civil wars even in societies that are not ethnically polarized.Elbadawi and Sambanis combine an empirical model of external intervention with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration using expected rather than actual external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration model.Unlike previous studies, they find that external intervention is positively associated with the duration of civil war.They distinguish partial third-party interventions that extend the length of war from multilateral peace operations, which have a mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which typically take place at war's end, or at least when both sides have agreed to a cease-fire.In a future paper the authors will examine whether partial third-party interventions - whatever their effect on a war's duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the length of civil war they may do so at the cost of further destabilizing the political system and sowing the seeds of future rebellion.This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the economics of civil wars, crime, and violence. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Economics of Political and Criminal Violence (RPO 682-99). Ibrahim Elbadawi may be contacted at [email protected].
Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 19
Book Description
Previous studies have argued that longer civil wars have been caused by ethnically polarized societies, since rebel cohesion is easier and more lasting with polarization. This study shows that external interventions tend to reduce the cost of coordinating a rebellion (or of fighting a rebellion), thereby lengthening the duration of civil wars even in societies that are not ethnically polarized.Elbadawi and Sambanis combine an empirical model of external intervention with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration using expected rather than actual external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration model.Unlike previous studies, they find that external intervention is positively associated with the duration of civil war.They distinguish partial third-party interventions that extend the length of war from multilateral peace operations, which have a mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which typically take place at war's end, or at least when both sides have agreed to a cease-fire.In a future paper the authors will examine whether partial third-party interventions - whatever their effect on a war's duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the length of civil war they may do so at the cost of further destabilizing the political system and sowing the seeds of future rebellion.This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the economics of civil wars, crime, and violence. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Economics of Political and Criminal Violence (RPO 682-99). Ibrahim Elbadawi may be contacted at [email protected].
Author: Stefan Wolff Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134911424 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 197
Book Description
This volume brings together expert case studies on a range of experiences of third-party interventions in civil wars. The chapters consider the role of a variety of organisations, including the United Nations, NATO, the European Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, the African Union, and the Organization of American States. Each case study features a presentation and analysis of empirical data in two dimensions: the organisation’s general capabilities to carry out intervention in civil wars and, specific to one particular intervention, the conflict context in which it happened. This serves two purposes. First, to offer insights into the dynamics of each individual case and helping us understand the specific outcome of an intervention effort, i.e., why did a mission (partially) succeed or fail. Second, it enables us to make real comparisons between the cases and draw policy-relevant conclusions about the conditions under which military, civilian and hybrid intervention missions are likely to succeed. This book was originally published as a special issue of Civil Wars.
Author: Jung-Yeop Woo Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing ISBN: 1527500470 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 165
Book Description
This book identifies the conditions under which foreign countries intervene in civil wars, contending that we should consider four dimensions of civil war intervention. The first dimension is the civil war itself. The characteristics of the civil war itself are important determinants of a third party’s decision making regarding intervention. The second dimension is the characteristics of intervening states, and includes their capabilities and domestic political environments. The third is the relationship between the host country and the intervening country. These states’ formal alliances and the differences in military capability between the target country and the potential intervener have an impact on the decision making process. The fourth dimension is the relationship between the interveners. This framework of four dimensions proves critical in understanding foreign intervention in civil wars. Based on this framework, the model for the intervention mechanism can reflect reality better. By including the relationships between the interveners here, the book shows that it is important to distinguish between intervention on the side of the government and intervention on behalf of the opposition. Without distinguishing between these, it is impossible to consider the concepts of counter-intervention and bandwagoning intervention.
Author: Paul Collier Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Civil war Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
Author: Zachary C. Shirkey Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317110404 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 255
Book Description
National leaders often worry that civil wars might spread, but also seem to have little grasp on which civil wars will in fact draw in other states. An ability to understand which civil wars are most likely to draw in outside powers and when this is likely to happen has important policy implications as well as simply answering a scholarly question. Joining the Fray takes existing explanations about which outside states are likely to intervene militarily in civil wars and adds to them explanations about when states join and why. Building on his earlier volume, Is this a Private Fight or Can Anybody Join?, Zachary C. Shirkey looks at how the decision to join a civil war can be intuitively understood as follows: given that remaining neutral was wise when a war began something must change in order for a country to change its beliefs about the benefits of fighting and join the war. This book studies what these changes are, focusing in particular on revealed information and commitment problems.
Author: Fotini Christia Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139851756 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 361
Book Description
Some of the most brutal and long-lasting civil wars of our time involve the rapid formation and disintegration of alliances among warring groups, as well as fractionalization within them. It would be natural to suppose that warring groups form alliances based on shared identity considerations - such as Christian groups allying with Christian groups - but this is not what we see. Two groups that identify themselves as bitter foes one day, on the basis of some identity narrative, might be allies the next day and vice versa. Nor is any group, however homogeneous, safe from internal fractionalization. Rather, looking closely at the civil wars in Afghanistan and Bosnia and testing against the broader universe of fifty-three cases of multiparty civil wars, Fotini Christia finds that the relative power distribution between and within various warring groups is the primary driving force behind alliance formation, alliance changes, group splits and internal group takeovers.
Author: Aysegul Aydin Publisher: Stanford University Press ISBN: 0804782946 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 213
Book Description
Intervention in armed conflicts is full of riddles that await attention from scholars and policymakers. This book argues that rethinking intervention—redefining what it is and why foreign powers take an interest in others' conflicts—is of critical importance to understanding how conflicts evolve over time with the entry and exit of external actors. It does this by building a new model of intervention that crosses the traditional boundaries between economics, international relations theory, and security studies, and places the economic interests and domestic political institutions of external states at the center of intervention decisions. Combining quantitative and qualitative evidence from both historical and contemporary conflicts, including interventions in both interstate conflicts and civil wars, it presents an in-depth discussion of a range of interventions—diplomatic, economic, and military—in a variety of international contexts, creating a comprehensive model for future research on the topic.
Author: Clayton L. Thyne Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield ISBN: 9780739135464 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
This book draws on bargaining theory, signaling theory, and rational expectations to better understand how 'signals' sent from external actors affect civil wars. Clayton L. Thyne combines quantitative analyses of over 150 civil wars with in-depth case studies to show how seemingly innocuous 'cheap' signals have an enormous impact on a state's stability, the duration of fighting once a war begins, and the ultimate victor of the conflict.
Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi
Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi
Author: Stefan Wolff
Author: Ibrahim A. Elbadawi
Author: Jung-Yeop Woo
Author: Richard Little
Author: Paul Collier
Author: Zachary C. Shirkey
Author: Fotini Christia
Author: Aysegul Aydin
Author: Clayton L. Thyne