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Author: Dr. Earl G. Wade Publisher: ISBN: Category : Combined operations (Military science) Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
"The following paper describes an ex post facto exploration of predictors of military intervention success. As such, the research examined pre-and post-intervention political conditions as a measure of democratization in countries subject to UN peacekeeping missions. To determine political conditions of democratization in countries subject to UN intervention, the research referred to the Polity IV Project's database of "Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2013." The study measured the difference in each country pre-and post-intervention average polity score and corrected this statistic for UN per capita cost and identified countries that significantly outperformed (and underperformed) the group average. These countries were subjected to further qualitative analysis to identify cultural factors that might predict intervention success. The study concluded that Central American former Spanish colonies with large "mestizo" populations and a longer history of independence tended to outperform other UN interventions. The study also determined that while ethnic fractionalization was a predictor of pre-intervention low polity scores, it was not related to performance (change in average polity score) in the study."--Abstract.
Author: Dr. Earl G. Wade Publisher: ISBN: Category : Combined operations (Military science) Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
"The following paper describes an ex post facto exploration of predictors of military intervention success. As such, the research examined pre-and post-intervention political conditions as a measure of democratization in countries subject to UN peacekeeping missions. To determine political conditions of democratization in countries subject to UN intervention, the research referred to the Polity IV Project's database of "Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2013." The study measured the difference in each country pre-and post-intervention average polity score and corrected this statistic for UN per capita cost and identified countries that significantly outperformed (and underperformed) the group average. These countries were subjected to further qualitative analysis to identify cultural factors that might predict intervention success. The study concluded that Central American former Spanish colonies with large "mestizo" populations and a longer history of independence tended to outperform other UN interventions. The study also determined that while ethnic fractionalization was a predictor of pre-intervention low polity scores, it was not related to performance (change in average polity score) in the study."--Abstract.
Author: National Intelligence Council Publisher: Cosimo Reports ISBN: 9781646794973 Category : Languages : en Pages : 158
Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Combat Studies Institute Press Publisher: ISBN: 9781079221022 Category : Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
Conducting the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) and projecting United States (US) influence worldwide has meant an increasing number of US diplomats and military forces are assigned to locations around the world, some of which have not previously had a significant US presence. In the current security environment, understanding foreign cultures and societies has become a national priority. Cultural understanding is necessary both to defeat adversaries and to work successfully with allies.
Author: Jennifer Kavanagh Publisher: ISBN: 9781977402271 Category : Intervention (International law) Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives. While these objectives were often successfully achieved, about 63 percent of the time overall, levels of success have been declining over time as the United States has pursued increasingly ambitious objectives. The research combines statistical analysis and detailed case studies of three types of interventions -- combat, stability operations, and deterrence. The research highlights that the factors that promote the successful achievement of political objectives vary by the nature of the objective and the intervention. For example, sending additional ground forces may help to defeat adversaries in combat missions but may have a more contingent effect on success in institution-building in stability operations, where nonmilitary resources and pre-intervention planning may be especially vital. The report offers five main policy recommendations. First, planners should carefully match political objectives to strategy because factors that promote success vary substantially by objective type. Second, sending more forces does not always promote success, but for certain types of objectives and interventions, greater capabilities may be essential. Third, policymakers should have realistic expectations regarding the possibility of achieving highly ambitious objectives. Fourth, pre-intervention planning is crucial. Finally, policymakers should carefully evaluate the role that might be played by third parties, which is often under appreciated.
Author: Shanchieh Jay Yang Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3642290477 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 379
Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, held in College Park, MD, USA, in April 2012. The 43 revised papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 76 submissions. The papers cover a wide range of topics including economics, public health, and terrorist activities, as well as utilize a broad variety of methodologies, e.g., machine learning, cultural modeling and cognitive modeling.
Author: Kerry Fosher Publisher: ISBN: 9781081565220 Category : Languages : en Pages : 252
Book Description
Understanding people, whether "knowing the other" or "knowing oneself, is not the kind of straightforward task with which military trainers and leaders are familiar. In fact, we often attempt to avoid the problem all together and look for technological solutions to human problems. This is in part a natural consequence of the U.S. military having held a decisive technical and industrial advantage on the battlefield for the past century. Yet in this advantage lies a corresponding weakness when faced with problems that cannot be solved by technology. Although our theory of war emphasizes that the human dimension of war is the most critical element, we often fail to sufficiently account for it in our training and planning. At the core of understanding people is culture, a concept that is both useful and ambiguous. In order to overcome our natural aversion to ambiguity and uncertainty, we must admit that a deliberate and persistent effort is required to develop competence in the art of understanding people through culture. This guidebook, an important step in adopting such a methodical approach to culture in operations, presents an evolutionary approach to understanding the human dimension. The concepts and skills presented here under the umbrella of Culture General provide leaders, trainers, and educators a pragmatic toolkit to prepare service members for global employment. The absolute diversity of spoken languages in the world, estimated to be around 6,900 by some methods, and cultures guarantee that no nation's military will ever be perfectly prepared to operate in foreign environments. Nonetheless, the deliberate application of Culture General knowledge and skills to specific cultures and regions will produce forces as prepared as possible to deal with the complexities of the current operating environment both as individuals and as units.We should take satisfaction in the idea that this guidebook positions us well to extend the Culture General approach more broadly across the services. Based on a solid interdisciplinary foundation and grounded in accepted social science methods, this guidebook provides a bridge to more effective operations across the range of military operations.
Author: Michael Ashcroft Publisher: Biteback Publishing ISBN: 1849547254 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 141
Book Description
As the Prime Minister's Special Representative on Veterans' Transition, Lord Ashcroft conducted a comprehensive review of all aspects of the move from a career in the Armed Forces to civilian life. The Veterans' Transition Review, published in February 2014, documents his findings and recommendations. Based on consultation with the Forces, the MOD and wider government, industry and charities - as well as hundreds of former Service personnel and their families - the Review includes more than 50 proposals to improve transition in fields including education, employment, health, housing, welfare, finance, information provision, the charity sector, and the way society perceives Service Leavers.
Author: Dr. Earl G. Wade
Author: Dr. Earl G. Wade
Author: National Intelligence Council
Author: Combat Studies Institute Press
Author: Jennifer Kavanagh
Author: 
Author: Mahir Ibrahimov
Author: 
Author: Shanchieh Jay Yang
Author: Kerry Fosher
Author: Michael Ashcroft