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Author: Anna Cieslak Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
We study risk premium in US Treasury bonds. We decompose Treasury yields into inflation expectations and maturity-specific interest rate cycles, which we define as variation in yields orthogonal to expected inflation. The short-maturity cycle captures the real short-rate dynamics. Jointly with expected inflation, it comprises the expectations hypothesis (EH) term in the yield curve. Controlling for the EH term, we extract a measure of risk premium variation from yields. The risk premium factor forecasts excess bond returns in and out of sample and subsumes the common bond return predictor obtained as a linear combination of forward rates.
Author: Anna Cieslak Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
We study risk premium in US Treasury bonds. We decompose Treasury yields into inflation expectations and maturity-specific interest rate cycles, which we define as variation in yields orthogonal to expected inflation. The short-maturity cycle captures the real short-rate dynamics. Jointly with expected inflation, it comprises the expectations hypothesis (EH) term in the yield curve. Controlling for the EH term, we extract a measure of risk premium variation from yields. The risk premium factor forecasts excess bond returns in and out of sample and subsumes the common bond return predictor obtained as a linear combination of forward rates.
Author: Antti Ilmanen Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119860202 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 310
Book Description
Elevate your game in the face of challenging market conditions with this eye-opening guide to portfolio management Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices. In this book, readers will also find: The common investor responses so far to the low expected return challenge Extensive empirical evidence on the critical ingredients of an effective portfolio: major asset class premia, illiquidity premia, style premia, and alpha Discussions of the pros and cons of illiquid investments, factor investing, ESG investing, risk mitigation strategies, and market timing Coverage of the whole top-down investment process – throughout the book endorsing humility in tactical forecasting and boldness in diversification Ideal for institutional and active individual investors, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns is a timeless resource that enables investing with serenity even in harsher financial conditions.
Author: Joachim Klement Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Long-term expected returns for bond investments are an important component of the actuarial assumptions of pension funds around the world. Similarly, banks and investors around the world need realistic long-term return assumptions to decide on the optimal share of bonds in a multi-asset portfolio. Given the current low interest rates in most developed countries, we calculate expected returns for government bonds in four regions and compare these to long-term historical returns. It seems clear that over the next decade government bond returns will be significantly lower than the historical average. In light of these results, it seems astonishing to us that many banks, pension funds and investors still seem to use the same long-term bond return expectations as before the current period of monetary easing. According to our calculations, this practice implicitly assumes that - at least for Switzerland the UK and the US - long-term government bond yields are based on unrealistic scenarios. Therefore, this practice seems clearly flawed and may have grave implications for the portfolios of those investors.
Author: Andrew L. Yarrow Publisher: Brookings Institution Press ISBN: 0815732759 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 340
Book Description
The story of men who are hurting—and hurting America by their absence Man Out describes the millions of men on the sidelines of life in the United States. Many of them have been pushed out of the mainstream because of an economy and society where the odds are stacked against them; others have chosen to be on the outskirts of twenty-first-century America. These men are disconnected from work, personal relationships, family and children, and civic and community life. They may be angry at government, employers, women, and "the system" in general—and millions of them have done time in prison and have cast aside many social norms. Sadly, too many of these men are unsure what it means to be a man in contemporary society. Wives or partners reject them; children are estranged from them; and family, friends, and neighbors are embarrassed by them. Many have disappeared into a netherworld of drugs, alcohol, poor health, loneliness, misogyny, economic insecurity, online gaming, pornography, other off-the-grid corners of the internet, and a fantasy world of starting their own business or even writing the Great American novel. Most of the men described in this book are poorly educated, with low incomes and often with very few prospects for rewarding employment. They are also disproportionately found among millennials, those over 50, and African American men. Increasingly, however, these lost men are discovered even in tony suburbs and throughout the nation. It is a myth that men on the outer corners of society are only lower-middle-class white men dislocated by technology and globalization. Unlike those who primarily blame an unjust economy, government policies, or a culture sanctioning "laziness," Man Out explores the complex interplay between economics and culture. It rejects the politically charged dichotomy of seeing such men as either victims or culprits. These men are hurting, and in turn they are hurting families and hurting America. It is essential to address their problems. Man Out draws on a wide range of data and existing research as well as interviews with several hundred men, women, and a wide variety of economists and other social scientists, social service providers and physicians, and with employers, through a national online survey and in-depth fieldwork in several communities.
Author: John Y. Campbell Publisher: ISBN: Category : Capital assets pricing model Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
It is well known that in the postwar period stockreturns have tended to be low when the short term nominal interest rate is high. In this paper I show that more generally the state of the term structure of interest rates predicts stock returns. Risk premia on stocks appear to move closely together with those on 20-year Treasury bonds, while risk premia on Treasury bills move somewhat independently. Average returns on 20-year bonds have been very low relative to average returns on stocks. I use these observations to test some simple asset pricing models. First I consider latent variable models in which betas are constant and risk premia vary with expected returns on a small number of unobservable hedge portfolios. The data strongly reject a single-latent-variable model. The last part of the paper examines the relationship between conditional means and variances of returns on bills, bonds and stocks. Bill returns tend to be high when their conditional variance is high, but there is a perverse negative relationship between stock returns and their conditional variance. A model is estimated which assumes that asset returns are determined by their time-varying betas with a fixed-weight "benchmark" portfolio of bills, bonds and stocks, whose return is proportional to its conditional variance. This portfolio is estimated to place almost all its weight on bills, indicating that uncertainty about nominal interest rates is important in pricing both short- and long-term assets
Author: Gueorgui S Konstantinov Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9811272581 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 421
Book Description
Quantitative Global Bond Portfolio Management offers a comprehensive discussion of quantitative modelling approaches to managing global bond and currency portfolios. Drawing on practitioner and academic research, as well as the extensive market experience of the authors, the book provides a timely overview of cutting-edge tools applied to the management of global bond portfolios, including in-depth discussions of factor models and optimization techniques. In addition to providing a solid theoretical foundation for global bond portfolio management, the authors focus on the practical implementation of yield curve and currency-driven approaches that can be successfully implemented in actual portfolios. As such, the book will be an indispensable resource to both new and seasoned investors looking to enhance their understanding of global bond markets and strategies.
Author: Roger G. Ibbotson Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 232
Book Description
Contains historical data on the returns from common stocks, small-company stocks, long-term government bonds, intermediate-term government bonds, U.S. Treasury bills and inflation.
Author: Mr.Ralph Chami Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513531867 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
Author: Anna Cieslak
Author: Anna Cieslak
Author: Mark A. Hooker
Author: Michael Annin
Author: Antti Ilmanen
Author: Joachim Klement
Author: Andrew L. Yarrow
Author: John Y. Campbell
Author: Gueorgui S Konstantinov
Author: Roger G. Ibbotson
Author: Mr.Ralph Chami