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Author: Eliphas Ndou Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030139328 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 421
Book Description
This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.
Author: Eliphas Ndou Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030139328 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 421
Book Description
This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.
Author: Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451853416 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 21
Book Description
This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived from a two-stage portfolio choice model. This relationship is estimated by band spectrum regression which allows to remove from the data the short-term cyclical components. The results show that the relationship between currency substitution depends mainly on long-term movements in the exchange rate, while the effect of inflation on currency substitution is not statistically significant.
Author: Chikako Baba Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.
Author: Jongrim Ha Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464813760 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 524
Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: Alexander Bremann Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3668735395 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 2,3, University of applied sciences, Munich, language: English, abstract: The value of a nation’s currency and its exchange rate is a key indicator for the performance of an economy’s import and export. This assignment evaluates the different impacts of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate, the following research also draws attention to the fact that economists have had mixed findings of the effects of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate. The use of secondary research and the AA-DD model will further enhance the various factors that are responsible to appreciate or depreciate a currency. The results of this assignment show that; fixed and floating exchange rates, as well as the MPC score, have significant impacts on the efficiency of macroeconomic policies altering the exchange rate. Macroeconomic policies trigger disposable income, prices and interest rates within an economy, which consequently affects the foreign exchange market leading to a change in the exchange rate. Especially in the field of a floating exchange rate economy, the impacts of fiscal but also monetary policies can be shown, fixed exchange rates disable economies to use monetary policies due to the fact that these will with high certainty have an impact on the exchange rate.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1616356154 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: World Health Organization Publisher: World Health Organization ISBN: 9789241546010 Category : CD-ROMs Languages : en Pages : 364
Book Description
"The Guide, in Part I, begins with a brief description of generalized CEA and how it relates to the two questions raised above. It then considers issues relating to study design, estimating costs, assessing health effects, discounting, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and reporting results. Detailed discussions of selected technical issues and applications are provided in a series of background papers, originally published in journals, but included in this book for easy reference in Part II." (from the back cover).
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1135179778 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513573691 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Author: Eliphas Ndou
Author: Eliphas Ndou
Author: Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani
Author: Chikako Baba
Author: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Author: Jongrim Ha
Author: Alexander Bremann
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Author: World Health Organization
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Author: International Monetary Fund