Author: John H. Makin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
This paper presents results of estimating an exchange rate equation in light of theoretical considerations regarding changes in sterilization and intervention policy and tax policy which imply that the coefficients in the equation will not behave as fixed parameters in a given sample period,as standard econometric practice assumes. We compare the results of ordinary least squares and a random coefficients model of the Japanese Yen-- U.S. dollar exchange rate during the floating period of July 1973 through June 1982.When systematic end of year policy changes affecting Japanese reserves are explicitly modeled, both OLS and the random coefficients model show increased explanatory power. The random coefficients model appears to be superior to OLS however; by allowing the coefficients to vary over time as required by the economic theory discussed above, estimates of the mean response coefficients for the floating period all have the hypothesized sign, and explanatory power is sharply increased.
Author: Robert Cumby Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
This paper finds that the introduction of dual exchange rates gives the monetary authority greater independence from external constraints than it would otherwise enjoy. The monetary authority is able to influence the level of aggregate demand in the short run and to sterilize the effects of temporary foreign distrubances. In addition, the paper finds that dual rates insulate the domestic economy fully from foreign interest rate changes but do not provide insulation from speculative disturbances.
Author: Michael Mussa Publisher: ISBN: Category : Commercial policy Languages : en Pages : 118
Book Description
This paper examines the appropriate time path of the tariff rate for a small open economy that has decided to move from protection of import competing industries to free trade. Adjustment costs for moving resources to alternative uses do not provide a rationale for gradual adjustment of the tariff rate because in the absence of distortions, rational optimizing agents will make socially appropriate investment decisions with respect to adjustment when they are qiven correct price signals. Some distortions of the adjustment process imply the desirability of gradual adjustment of the tariff rate to slow adjustment, but other distortions imply the desirability of subsidizing imports in the short run in order to speed movement of resources out of previously protected industries. Concern with the income redistribution effects of reductions in the tariff rate(which usually injure owners of factors in previously protected industries) does provide a general rationale for a gradual move to free trade. The influence of the unemployment consequences of tariff reduction on the appropriate path of commercial policy depends on the nature and shape of the respone of the rate of resource reallocation to the level of unemployment in previously protected industries.
Author: James M. Poterba Publisher: ISBN: Category : Employment forecasting Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper develops a procedure for adjusting the Current Population Survey gross changes data for the effects of reporting errors. The corrected data suggest that the labor market is much less dynamic than has frequently been suggested. Conventional measures sy understate the duration of unemployment by as much as eighty percent and overstate the extent of movement into and out ofthe labor force by several hundred percent. The adjusted data also throw demographic differences in patterns of labor market dynamics into sharp relief.
Author: Robert E. Cumby Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange rates Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Casual observation indicates that in recent years real interest rates in the United States appear to have risen sharply and have remained high relative to historical standards. Many observers have claimed that these high real rates have been transmitted abroad and have lead to high real rates in the rest of the industrialized countries. Concern over the level of real rates has been widespread in the analyses by economic policymakers both in Europe and in the United States. In this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries that have been raised by the recent policy debates in Europe and the United States: Have ex ante real rates in the United States and Europe been high during recent years? Has there been a link between U.S. real rates and those in other countries? Can this link be quantified?The basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the European countries and the United States. Indeed, real interest rates in the United States are currently at high levels unprecedented in the post war period, which rival the levels that occurred during the Great Depression. Complaints that real interest rates in the United States are exceedingly high seem to be well justified. There is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in U.S. real rates and those in Europe. However,European real rates typically do not move one-for-one with U.S. real rates,still leaving open the possibility that European monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity.
Author: Lawrence H. Summers Publisher: ISBN: Category : Econometrics Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
This note demonstrates that Bennett McCallum's recent critique of low frequency estimates of macro-economic relationships is of little empirical significance. It also demonstrates that readily available and frequently used techniques can be used to diagnose the problem McCallum raises. Finally, it shows that the standard critique of expectational distributed lags is not warranted once the role of learning by economic agents is recognized.
Author: Martin S. Feldstein Publisher: ISBN: Category : Labor supply Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
This paper considers the following question: Would a "golden rule" capital accumulation policy of equating the marginal product of capital to the rate of growth of population be appropriate in a mixed economy in which the government does not have direct control over resource allocation but can use distortionary taxes to obtain resources for augmenting the private capital stock? The key result derived hereis that the golden rule level of capital intensity remains optimal if the tax structure that prevails at the equilibrium does not alter the individual labor supply. This is true even if the constancy of labor supply represents a balancing of income effects and substitution effects of a distortionary tax. In contrast, if the form of the tax and the nature of the utility function imply that labor supply is distorted, the optimal capital intensity will in general not correspond to the golden rule level.
Author: John H. Makin
Author: Robert Cumby
Author: Michael Mussa
Author: James M. Poterba
Author: Robert E. Cumby
Author: National Bureau of Economic Research
Author: 
Author: Lawrence H. Summers
Author: National Bureau of Economic Research
Author: Martin S. Feldstein