Author: Bliemel, FriedhelmPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy, Measurement and Testing
Author: Bliemel, FriedhelmForecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J HyndmanPublisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Forecast Evaluation Methods
Author: Frank UndorfPublisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668798532
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: 1,0, University of Cologne (Institut für Ökonometrie und Statistik), course: Seminar "Statistics and Econometrics", language: English, abstract: This seminar paper aims to briefly introduce selected modelfree methods which can be used both to evaluate specific forecast series and to compare pairwise competing series of forecasts. Problems arising from parameter estimation uncertainty and nested forecast generating models are illuminated curtly. The model-free methods will be applied to three series of annual german economic forecasts from 1970 - 2015 provided by the joint forecast and the Council of Economic Advisors. It turns out that the forecast accuracy matches the chronology of the forecasts within the annual forecast semester. Moreover, a simple Monte Carlo study aims to illustrate graphically empirical size and empirical power of the tests for pairwise comparison depending on certain properties of the underlying forecast error sequences.
Accuracy Measures and the Evaluation of Forecasts
Author: Essam MalmoudTesting for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy
Author: Andrew MartinezPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
Book Description
Although the trajectory and path of future outcomes plays an important role in policy decisions, analyses of forecast accuracy typically focus on individual point forecasts. However, it is important to examine the path forecasts errors since they include the forecast dynamics. We use the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density to propose a test for differences in system path forecast accuracy. We also demonstrate how our test relates to and extends existing joint testing approaches. Simulations highlight both the advantages and disadvantages of path forecast accuracy tests in detecting a broad range of differences in forecast errors. We compare the Federal Reserve's Greenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts. The results show that differences in forecast-error dynamics can play an important role in the assessment of forecast accuracy.
Principles of Forecasting
Author: J.S. ArmstrongPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792374015
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 880
Book Description
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Forecast Evaluation and Combination
Author: Francis X. DieboldPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 64
Book Description
It is obvious that forecasts are of great importance and widely used in economics and finance. Quite simply, good forecasts lead to good decisions. The importance of forecast evaluation and combination techniques follows immediately -- forecast users naturally have a keen interest in monitoring and improving forecast performance. More generally, forecast evaluation figures prominently in many questions in empirical economics and finance. We provide selective account of forecast evaluation and combination methods. First we discuss evaluation of a single forecast, and in particular, evaluation of whether and how it may be improved. Second, we discuss the evaluation and comparison of the accuracy of competing forecasts. Third, we discuss whether and how a set of forecasts may be combined to produce a superior composite forecast. Fourth, we describe a number of forecast evaluation topics of particular relevance in economics and finance, including methods for evaluating direction-of-change forecasts, probability forecasts and volatility forecasts.
The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Methods
Author: Spyros G. MakridakisPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 322
Book Description
STATISTICS. ECONOMETRIC METHODS. EXTRAPOLATION METHODS. BOX-JENKINS. AEP FILTERING. BAYESIAN FORECASTING. NAIVE METHOD. MOVING AVERAGE METHOD. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD. REGRESSION METHOD. FORSYS METHOD. SALES FORECASTING.
Profit From Your Forecasting Software
Author: Paul GoodwinPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119416000
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 188
Book Description
Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.
Business Forecasting
Author: Michael GillilandPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119782473
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 435
Book Description
Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.