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Author: P. Fisher Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9401580022 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 215
Book Description
It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Author: P. Fisher Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9401580022 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 215
Book Description
It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Author: W. Driehuis Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 148329451X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 500
Book Description
This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.
Author: Shu-Heng Chen Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190877502 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 785
Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
Author: Giancarlo Gandolfo Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642954596 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 182
Book Description
This is the fourth version of a model that five years ago we set out to build and estimate along the lines of the continuous time approach clarified In chapter 1. Previous versions appeared in journal articles and conference proceedings, where the space is notoriously limited. Therefore we welcome the possibility of publishing a book-length treatment of this fourth version, so that we can describe its theoretical and empirical aspects in some detail. Although we have worked closely together and accept joint responsibility for the whole book, chs. 1 and 2 and appendix I have been written by G. Gandolfo, whilst chs. ] and 4 and appendix II have been written by P.c. Padoan. Different parts of this version of the model have been discussed In various lectures at the European University Institute (Florence) in 1984, In a seminar organized by the Bank of Italy (Sadiba, Perugia, Italy, February 16-18, 1984), in the second Viennese Workshop on Economic Applications of Control Theory (Vienna, May 16-18, 1984), and in the sixth annual Conference of the Society for Economic Dynamics and Control (Nice, France, June 13-15, 1984). In all of these we received helpful comments; similarly helpful were the comments of Clifford R .. Wymer, who, however, is absolved of any responsibility.
Author: Clive William John Granger Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 9780198287360 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 428
Book Description
This is a volume of readings for graduate students, especially those taking courses in applied econometrics, who need to learn how to evaluate the validity of present theories and techniques. The aim of the text is to aid readers in the difficult task of actually constructing models. The essays vary in the degree of technical sophistication used, but each paper intends to provide students with a sound knowledge of the practical difficulties of model specification, evaluation and interpretation, as well as advice on tackling these difficulties.
Author: Kenneth Frank Wallis Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 9781782541622 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 462
Book Description
'An excellent reference volume of this author's work, bringing together articles published over a 25 year span on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large scale macroeconomic modelling and the interface between them.' - Aslib Book Guide This major volume of essays by Kenneth F. Wallis features 28 articles published over a quarter of a century on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large-scale macroeconometric modelling, and the interface between them. The first part deals with time-series econometrics and includes significant early contributions to the development of the LSE tradition in time-series econometrics, which is the dominant British tradition and has considerable influence worldwide. Later sections discuss theoretical and practical issues in modelling seasonality and forecasting with applications in both large-scale and small-scale models. The final section summarizes the research programme of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau, a unique comparison project among economy-wide macroeconometric models.
Author: Various Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1351140116 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 5228
Book Description
Reissuing works originally published between 1929 and 1991, this collection of 17 volumes presents a variety of considerations on Econometrics, from introductions to specific research works on particular industries. With some volumes on models for macroeconomics and international economies, this is a widely interesting set of economic texts. Input/Output methods and databases are looked at in some volumes while others look at Bayesian techniques, linear and non-linear models. This set will be of use to those in industry and business studies, geography and sociology as well as politics and economics.
Author: Michael P. Clements Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 140517191X Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 616
Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Author: M.J.M. Rao Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 1483290077 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 292
Book Description
Advances in computer technology, coupled with the sophistication of econometric modelling, have enabled rapid progress in the formulation and solution of optimal control and filtering programmes, especially in the sphere of macroeconomic policy designing. These developments in systems methodology have prompted the need for an interface between optimal control theory and dynamic macroeconomic analysis. The implications of this convergence have already aroused a great deal of research, but it remains to be seen whether policy makers in most developing countries will consider actually incorporating these techniques into planning. The author argues that control and systems theory can be of immense help in stabilizing those economies plagued by cyclical and structural problems. By demonstrating the applicability of control & filter theory to short-term macroeconomic planning, this book illuminates the impressive array of problems that can thereby be solved, and helps foster a closer working relationship between economists and control theorists. The work deals specifically with the construction of a Kalman filter mechanism, for deriving short-term optimal economic policies under conditions of uncertainty. It specifies and resolves a macroeconometric model which is linked to a unique observation sub-system of a given economy, congruent with the errors in information signalling which are prevalent within the data base context of most developing countries. An evaluation of control settings contrasts short and long-term economic policies. This indicates that an economy may `overheat' under protracted settings of instrument values around their optimal levels if the constraints on the system, in the form of external shocks, are too great to allow reaching all targets simultaneously using feasible instrument paths.
Author: P. Fisher
Author: P. Fisher
Author: W. Driehuis
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Author: Giancarlo Gandolfo
Author: Clive William John Granger
Author: Gregory C. Chow
Author: Kenneth Frank Wallis
Author: Various
Author: Michael P. Clements
Author: M.J.M. Rao