Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models PDF Download

Author: Gregory C. Chow
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780608160115
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 315

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Book Description

Author: Gregory C. Chow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 315

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Book Description

Author: P. Fisher
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401580022
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 215

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Book Description
It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Author: W. Driehuis
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 148329451X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 500

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Book Description
This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.

Author: Ray C. Fair
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674831803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 504

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Book Description
This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.

Author: Giancarlo Gandolfo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642954596
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 182

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Book Description
This is the fourth version of a model that five years ago we set out to build and estimate along the lines of the continuous time approach clarified In chapter 1. Previous versions appeared in journal articles and conference proceedings, where the space is notoriously limited. Therefore we welcome the possibility of publishing a book-length treatment of this fourth version, so that we can describe its theoretical and empirical aspects in some detail. Although we have worked closely together and accept joint responsibility for the whole book, chs. 1 and 2 and appendix I have been written by G. Gandolfo, whilst chs. ] and 4 and appendix II have been written by P.c. Padoan. Different parts of this version of the model have been discussed In various lectures at the European University Institute (Florence) in 1984, In a seminar organized by the Bank of Italy (Sadiba, Perugia, Italy, February 16-18, 1984), in the second Viennese Workshop on Economic Applications of Control Theory (Vienna, May 16-18, 1984), and in the sixth annual Conference of the Society for Economic Dynamics and Control (Nice, France, June 13-15, 1984). In all of these we received helpful comments; similarly helpful were the comments of Clifford R .. Wymer, who, however, is absolved of any responsibility.

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616

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Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Author:
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349588024
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 7493

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Book Description
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.

Author: Clive William John Granger
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780198287360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 428

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Book Description
This is a volume of readings for graduate students, especially those taking courses in applied econometrics, who need to learn how to evaluate the validity of present theories and techniques. The aim of the text is to aid readers in the difficult task of actually constructing models. The essays vary in the degree of technical sophistication used, but each paper intends to provide students with a sound knowledge of the practical difficulties of model specification, evaluation and interpretation, as well as advice on tackling these difficulties.

Author: David Kaplan
Publisher: SAGE Publications
ISBN: 1483365875
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 529

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Book Description
Click ′Additional Materials′ for downloadable samples "The 24 chapters in this Handbook span a wide range of topics, presenting the latest quantitative developments in scaling theory, measurement, categorical data analysis, multilevel models, latent variable models, and foundational issues. Each chapter reviews the historical context for the topic and then describes current work, including illustrative examples where appropriate. The level of presentation throughout the book is detailed enough to convey genuine understanding without overwhelming the reader with technical material. Ample references are given for readers who wish to pursue topics in more detail. The book will appeal to both researchers who wish to update their knowledge of specific quantitative methods, and students who wish to have an integrated survey of state-of- the-art quantitative methods." —Roger E. Millsap, Arizona State University "This handbook discusses important methodological tools and topics in quantitative methodology in easy to understand language. It is an exhaustive review of past and recent advances in each topic combined with a detailed discussion of examples and graphical illustrations. It will be an essential reference for social science researchers as an introduction to methods and quantitative concepts of great use." —Irini Moustaki, London School of Economics, U.K. "David Kaplan and SAGE Publications are to be congratulated on the development of a new handbook on quantitative methods for the social sciences. The Handbook is more than a set of methodologies, it is a journey. This methodological journey allows the reader to experience scaling, tests and measurement, and statistical methodologies applied to categorical, multilevel, and latent variables. The journey concludes with a number of philosophical issues of interest to researchers in the social sciences. The new Handbook is a must purchase." —Neil H. Timm, University of Pittsburgh The SAGE Handbook of Quantitative Methodology for the Social Sciences is the definitive reference for teachers, students, and researchers of quantitative methods in the social sciences, as it provides a comprehensive overview of the major techniques used in the field. The contributors, top methodologists and researchers, have written about their areas of expertise in ways that convey the utility of their respective techniques, but, where appropriate, they also offer a fair critique of these techniques. Relevance to real-world problems in the social sciences is an essential ingredient of each chapter and makes this an invaluable resource. The handbook is divided into six sections: • Scaling • Testing and Measurement • Models for Categorical Data • Models for Multilevel Data • Models for Latent Variables • Foundational Issues These sections, comprising twenty-four chapters, address topics in scaling and measurement, advances in statistical modeling methodologies, and broad philosophical themes and foundational issues that transcend many of the quantitative methodologies covered in the book. The Handbook is indispensable to the teaching, study, and research of quantitative methods and will enable readers to develop a level of understanding of statistical techniques commensurate with the most recent, state-of-the-art, theoretical developments in the field. It provides the foundations for quantitative research, with cutting-edge insights on the effectiveness of each method, depending on the data and distinct research situation.