Evaluating Econometric Models and Expert Intuition PDF Download

Author: Rianne Legerstee
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789036102919
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 149

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Book Description
This thesis is about forecasting situations which involve econometric models and expert intuition. The first three chapters are about what it is that experts do when they adjust statistical model forecasts and what might improve that adjustment behavior. It is investigated how expert forecasts are related to model forecasts, how this potential relation is influenced by other factors and how it influences forecast accuracy, how feedback influences forecasting behavior and accuracy and which loss function is associated with experts' forecasts. The final chapter focuses on how to make use in an optimal way of multiple forecasts produced by multiple experts for one and the same event. It is found that potential disagreement amongst forecasters can have predictive value, especially when used in Markov regime-switching models.

Author: Jan Kmenta
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483267342
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 425

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Book Description
Evaluation of Econometric Models presents approaches to assessing and enhancing the progress of applied economic research. This book discusses the problems and issues in evaluating econometric models, use of exploratory methods in economic analysis, and model construction and evaluation when theoretical knowledge is scarce. The data analysis by partial least squares, prediction analysis of economic models, and aggregation and disaggregation of nonlinear equations are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the comparison of econometric models by optimal control techniques, role of time series analysis in econometric model evaluation, and hypothesis testing in spectral regression. Other topics include the relevance of laboratory experiments to testing resource allocation theory and token economy and animal models for the experimental analysis of economic behavior. This publication is intended for students and researchers interested in evaluating econometric models.

Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316124010
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145

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Book Description
To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

Author: Kenneth J. Singleton
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829232
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497

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Book Description
Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.

Author: George W. Ladd
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Book Description

Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107081599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145

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Book Description
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.

Author: Robert C. Blattberg
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814287059
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 332

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Book Description
Quantitative marketing as a discipline started around the mid 60's and has been dominated by only a handful of individuals. Robert Blattberg is one of them and has been a leader in setting a research agenda for this discipline. The collection of articles in this book along with commentary by some of his doctoral students is a magnificent testament to the genius of Robert Blattberg. The chapters in this book are organized into six parts. The first part, titled ?Early Bob?, traces research which he completed during the first decade after he joined University of Chicago. The second part is titled ?Statistical Bob?. This part comprises papers that Robert wrote in characterizing the response of consumers to dealing. The third part is titled ?Promotional Bob?, and covers roughly a ten-year stretch from 1987 to 1996. The fourth part titled ?Big Bob?, describes Robert's contribution to and impact on marketing practice. The fifth part is titled ?Direct Bob?, and focuses on what customer level data should be gathered, how they should be organized, linked and analyzed, and what metrics should be used to assess customer value. The sixth and final part titled ?Micro-Macro Bob?, is not genre or area specific as much as an illustration of Robert's overall research interests in marketing-mix modeling.

Author: Michael D. Intriligator
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN: 9780132232555
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 638

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Book Description
The econometric approach; Models and econometric models; Single-equation estimation; Application of single-equation estimationl Simultaneous equations; The uses of econometrics.

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199875510
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732

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Book Description
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

Author: Clive W. J. Granger
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521662086
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 112

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Book Description
In these three essays, Professor Granger explains the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Drawing on a wide range of cases and vignettes from economics, finance, politics and environment economics, as well as from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigor with intuition to provide a unique and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in modern economics. Chapter 1 deals with Specification. Chapter 2 considers Evaluation, and argues that insufficent evaluation is undertaken by economists, and that models should be evaluated in terms of the quality of their output. In Chapter 3, the question of how to evaluate forecasts is considered at several levels of increasing depth.