Author: Jörn van HalterenPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 209
Book Description
Evaluating and Improving Methods to Estimate the Implied Cost of Capital and Return Decompositions
Author: Jörn van HalterenEvaluating Methods to Estimate the Implied Cost of Equity Capital: A Simulation Study
Author: Holger DaskeEstimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data
Author: Peter EastonPublisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981945
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
Book Description
Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.
Estimating Firm-Specific Long-Term Growth Rate and Cost of Capital
Author: Rong HuangPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
We use the residual-income valuation model to simultaneously estimate firm-specific implied long-term growth rate in abnormal earnings and cost of capital by relating earnings-to-price and book-to-market ratios in a linear fashion. This simple framework estimates investors' consensus beliefs with respect to the long-term growth rate of abnormal earnings and the corresponding cost of capital embedded in the stock price. Empirical results show that the growth rate and cost of capital estimates obtained from this model and that of Easton [2004] exhibit desirable properties. Specifically, both cost of capital estimates, controlled for growth, are predictably related to various previously documented firm-specific factors. The cost of capital estimates using this and the Easton [2004] procedure are also positively related to one-year-ahead returns, especially when the change in cost of capital and growth are controlled. Overall, we show the importance of considering return decomposition as well as controlling for growth when assessing the relationship between cost of capital and various risk factors.
Properties of Implied Cost of Capital Using Analysts' Forecasts
Author: Wayne R. GuayPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Book Description
We evaluate the influence of measurement error in analysts' forecasts on the accuracy of implied cost of capital estimates from various implementations of the 'implied cost of capital' approach, and develop corrections for the measurement error. The implied cost of capital approach relies on analysts' short- and long-term earnings forecasts as proxies for the market's expectation of future earnings, and solves for the implied discount rate that equates the present value of the expected future payoffs to the current stock price. We document predictable error in the implied cost of capital estimates resulting from analysts' forecasts that are sluggish with respect to information in past stock returns. We propose two methods to mitigate the influence of sluggish forecasts on the implied cost of capital estimates. These methods substantially improve the ability of the implied cost of capital estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in future stock returns, which is consistent with the corrections being effective in mitigating the error in the estimates due to analysts' sluggishness.
The Implied Cost of Capital
Author: Carl BarkfeldtPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This study examines whether improvements in earnings forecasting translate into improvements in implied cost of capital estimates of expected returns. I attain high-performing earnings forecasting via a machine learning approach. In particular, I implement and evaluate six popular machine learning methods to forecast earnings based on a comprehensive set of predictor variables. The evaluation demonstrates that the non-linear machine learning methods - Gradient Boosted Regression Trees and Artificial Neural Network - can generate earnings forecasts for up to five years ahead that exhibit less bias and better accuracy than state-of-the-art panel-regression benchmarks as well as a random walk forecast. Moreover, I estimate the implied cost of capital on a sample of U.S. stocks spanning 2000-2017. The general result indicates that improvements in earnings forecasting do not translate into improvements in return predictability. While issues with the implied cost of capital methodology could explain the results, another possible explanation is market mispricing.
Estimating Firms' Expected Cost of Equity Capital
Author: Jan A. KempkesProgram and Proceedings
Author: American Accounting Association. Annual MeetingPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accounting
Languages : en
Pages : 288
Book Description
Earnings Quality
Author: Jennifer FrancisPublisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981147
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 97
Book Description
This review lays out a research perspective on earnings quality. We provide an overview of alternative definitions and measures of earnings quality and a discussion of research design choices encountered in earnings quality research. Throughout, we focus on a capital markets setting, as opposed, for example, to a contracting or stewardship setting. Our reason for this choice stems from the view that the capital market uses of accounting information are fundamental, in the sense of providing a basis for other uses, such as stewardship. Because resource allocations are ex ante decisions while contracting/stewardship assessments are ex post evaluations of outcomes, evidence on whether, how and to what degree earnings quality influences capital market resource allocation decisions is fundamental to understanding why and how accounting matters to investors and others, including those charged with stewardship responsibilities. Demonstrating a link between earnings quality and, for example, the costs of equity and debt capital implies a basic economic role in capital allocation decisions for accounting information; this role has only recently been documented in the accounting literature. We focus on how the precision of financial information in capturing one or more underlying valuation-relevant constructs affects the assessment and use of that information by capital market participants. We emphasize that the choice of constructs to be measured is typically contextual. Our main focus is on the precision of earnings, which we view as a summary indicator of the overall quality of financial reporting. Our intent in discussing research that evaluates the capital market effects of earnings quality is both to stimulate further research in this area and to encourage research on related topics, including, for example, the role of earnings quality in contracting and stewardship.
Accounting for Risk
Author: Stephen PenmanPublisher:
ISBN: 9781680838909
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 148
Book Description
Accounting for Risk is about using accounting information to assess risk and the required return for bearing that risk. The focus is on investing in firms and the equity claims on firms: How much should an investor discount the price of a share in a firm for risk, and how can accounting information help to answer that question? That discount is variously called the required return, the expected return, or the cost of capital. The monograph links two strands of research - the first is accounting-based valuation research where value is assessed from expected cash flows, earnings, or residual earnings. The focus has been on forecasting those payoffs however forecasting payoffs is only one part of valuation. The other issue is how those expected payoffs should be discounted for risk. This monograph engages the question whether accounting information aid in the determination of risk and the discount rate? The second strand of research is asset pricing. While "asset pricing" might suggest this research is involved in determining prices, it is actually in pursuit of the required return to investing - the risk discount to price. Can accounting information about risk and return be utilized in building operational pricing models? Accounting for Risk also enhances financial statement analysis. While traditional financial statement analysis--ratio analysis--was conducted without much reference to finance theory, modern financial statement analysis derives from accounting-based valuation models that are based on the no-arbitrage theory on the pricing of expected dividends. That brings accounting and finance closer together. The key is an understanding of the accounting principles underlying the recognition and measurement in the financial statements. This requires an appreciation of how accounting handles risk, thereby generating accounting numbers that convey information about risk and expected return.