Bubbles in Real Estate? PDF Download

Author: Daniel Gros
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 9290796154
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 15

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276387480
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
The paper discusses the relevance of housing markets for macroeconomic developments from a euro area perspective, reviews trends in house prices and mortgage credit, and discusses policy approaches to prevent housing booms and deal with busts. After years of unsustainably strong house price growth in several Member States in a context of easing credit conditions, downward house price corrections took place after the 2008 financial crisis. A recovery in house prices started after 2013 under different conditions compared with the pre-financial crisis context. The house price recovery appeared to be driven to a greater extent by structural factors and to a lesser extent by buoyant household loans, as credit growth has been lagging behind house price growth in most countries. Prospects for house price growth after the COVID-19 outburst are clouded by uncertainty in light of the changing outlook when economic fundamentals and policy responses play in opposite directions. The current context is also different compared with the period before the global financial crisis because macro-prudential frameworks have been strengthened and macroprudential tools are increasingly used across the euro area. The effectiveness of policy tools needed to address risks linked to boom-bust dynamics in the real estate sector depends on their interaction, design and timely implementation. Policy composition and policy design also appear crucial in dealing with possible trade-offs among policy objectives, including between macro-financial stability and housing affordability.

Author: Angana Banerji
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870698
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66

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House prices in Europe have shown diverging trends, and this paper seeks to explain these differences by analyzing three groups of countries: the "fast lane", the average performers, and the slow movers. Price movements in the first two groups are found to be driven mostly by income and trends in user costs, and housing markets in these countries seem relatively more susceptible to adverse developments in fundamentals. Real house price declines among the slow movers are harder to explain, although ample supply, low home ownership, and less complete mortgage markets are likely factors. The impact of macroeconomic, prudential and structural policies on housing markets can be large and should be a factor in policy decisions.

Author: Stanimira Milcheva
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy; however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market. Design/methodology/approach: The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment - the housing market channel. The authors estimate vector auto-regressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states. Findings: The authors find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result, the authors do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, they observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labor market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the loan-to-value ratio. Originality/value: The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. The authors disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. The authors show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.

Author: P. Arestis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230246982
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 283

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Book Description
Housing finance structures and Institutional and regulatory/fiscal aspects in housing have changed significantly in recent years. This book examines the development in housing markets in Europe and the US, and looks at ways to make housing more affordable and housing market developments more stable.

Author: Olivier de Bandt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642153402
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416

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Book Description
During the recession in the years 2008-2009, the most severe for mature economies in the post-war period, housing markets were often mentioned as having a special responsibility. The objective of this book is to shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its fundamental determinants in terms of supply and demand characteristics, and its relationship with the overall business cycle. The co-movements of house prices across countries are also considered, as well as the channel of transmission of house price changes to the rest of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effects on private consumption, through possible wealth effects. The book is a compilation of original papers produced by economists and researchers from the four main national central banks in the euro area, also with the participation of leading academics.

Author: Giancarlo Corsetti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513548743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63

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Book Description
We study the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. We develop a methodology to assess the degree of heterogeneity, which we find to be low in financial variables and output, but significant in consumption, consumer prices, and variables related to local housing and labor markets. Building a small open economy model featuring a housing sector and calibrating it to Spain, we show that varying the share of adjustable-rate mortgages and loan-to-value ratios explains up to one-third of the cross-country heterogeneity in the responses of output and private consumption.

Author: Christine Frayne
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276529392
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Mark Kleinman
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134699204
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 321

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Book Description
Good mix of analytical chapters and descriptive case studies Authors are very well known in the field

Author: Stanley McGreal
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781786355614
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
Cover -- EXECUTIVE EDITORIAL BOARD -- Guest editorial -- Liquidity, interest rates and house prices in the euro area: a DSGE analysis -- House price return volatility patterns in Turkey, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir -- Modeling property bubble dynamics in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain -- The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area -- The sources of house price change: identifying liquidity shocks to the housing market