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Author: Jose G. Montalvo Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Civil war Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Author: Jose G. Montalvo Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Civil war Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Author: Marta Reynal-Querol Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Author: Jose G. Montalvo Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Author: Michael F. Bleaney Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
We investigate the determinants of onset, duration and incidence of civil wars, and their sensitivity to different coding rules. Whatever the coding rule used, incidence of civil war is largely determined by poverty, country size, mountainous terrain and ethnic diversity. Poverty reduces the opportunity cost of rebellion, and mountainous terrain makes rebellions harder to defeat, while ethnic diversity creates potential conflict, since some linguistic groups may feel under-represented. Continuation and onset of civil war are non-overlapping subsets of incidence, depending on whether civil war occurred in the previous year. We exploit this aspect to test whether the determinants of continuation and onset are statistically significantly different. For four out of five coding rules, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of common determinants of civil war onset and continuation. This is the main contribution of the paper. Ethnic diversity is particularly high in Africa, where many civil wars occur, but we show that the significance of ethnic diversity is not just an unidentified Africa effect. Our estimated model works as well for Africa as for other areas. There is evidence that ethnic polarization matters as well as fractionalization. We show that polarization understates the propensity for conflict in societies with high ethnic diversity, where the polarization measure tends to be low, but otherwise outperforms fractionalization as a predictor of conflict. Mountainous terrain is generally not significant when ethnic polarization is included.
Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Civil war Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
Previous studies have argued that longer civil wars have been caused by ethnically polarized societies, since rebel cohesion is easier and more lasting with polarization. This study shows that external interventions tend to reduce the cost of coordinating a rebellion (or of fighting a rebellion), thereby lengthening the duration of civil wars even in societies that are not ethnically polarized.
Author: Paul Collier Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Civil war Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
Author: Stathis N. Kalyvas Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 113945692X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 20
Book Description
By analytically decoupling war and violence, this book explores the causes and dynamics of violence in civil war. Against the prevailing view that such violence is an instance of impenetrable madness, the book demonstrates that there is logic to it and that it has much less to do with collective emotions, ideologies, and cultures than currently believed. Kalyvas specifies a novel theory of selective violence: it is jointly produced by political actors seeking information and individual civilians trying to avoid the worst but also grabbing what opportunities their predicament affords them. Violence, he finds, is never a simple reflection of the optimal strategy of its users; its profoundly interactive character defeats simple maximization logics while producing surprising outcomes, such as relative nonviolence in the 'frontlines' of civil war.
Author: Francis M. Deng Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield ISBN: 9780815723691 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 604
Book Description
The civil war that has intermittently raged in the Sudan since independence in 1956 is, according to Francis Deng, a conflict of contrasting and seemingly incompatible identities in the Northern and Southern parts of the country. Identity is seen as a function of how people identify themselves and are identified in racial, ethnic, cultural, linguistic, and religious terms. The identity question related to how such concepts determine or influence participation and distribution in the political, economic, social, and cultural life of the country. War of Visions aims at shedding light on the anomalies of the identity conflict. The competing models in the Sudan are the Arab-Islamic mold of the North, representing two-thirds of the country in territory and population, and the remaining Southern third, which is indigenously African in race, ethnicity, culture, and religion, with an educated Christianized elite. But although the North is popularly defined as racially Arab, the people are a hybrid of Arab and African elements, with the African physical characteristics predominating in most tribal groups. This configuration is the result of a historical process that stratified races, cultures, and religions, and fostered a "passing" into the Arab-Islamic mold that discriminated against the African race and cultures. The outcome of this process is a polarization that is based more on myth than on the realities of the situation. The identity crisis has been further complicated by the fact that Northerners want to fashion the country on the basis of their Arab- Islamic identity, while the South is decidedly resistant. Francis Deng presents three alternative approaches to the identity crisis. First, he argues that by bringing to the surface the realities of the African elements of identity in the North-- thereby revealing characteristics shared by all Sudanese--a new basis for the creation of a common identity could be established that fosters equitable
Author: Shanna A. Kirschner Publisher: ISBN: Category : Civil war Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
When do ethnic civil wars last especially long? This dissertation examines when, why, and how ethnicity affects the length of civil wars. Two-thirds of civil wars pit ethnic combatants against each other; the duration of these conflicts varies considerably. Existing work on ethnicity in civil wars is effectively stalemated on the questions of how or even whether ethnicity influences the lengths of these wars. Yet the answer has vital normative, policy, and research implications. In this dissertation, I argue that ethnicity will prolong civil wars under two conditions. First, when information derived from ethnic interactions exacerbates combatants' fears of the future, conflicts will last longer. Second, when support from ethnic kin in other states alters the balance of capabilities or introduces uncertainty into wars, conflicts will be protracted. Using duration analysis of a new dataset of all ethnic civil wars from 1945 to 2004, I show that both of these dynamics prolong ethnic civil wars. Case studies from two post-Soviet republics demonstrate that ethnic interactions are especially likely to prolong conflicts when they exacerbate commitment or signaling problems. Two civil wars in Indonesia show that ethnic kin are especially influential when they influence the balance of capabilities. Case studies of civil wars in Central America and Sri Lanka indicate that these findings also may have implications for both variation within non-ethnic civil wars and between ethnic and non-ethnic civil wars.
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Author: Marta Reynal-Querol
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Author: Michael F. Bleaney
Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi
Author: Paul Collier
Author: Stathis N. Kalyvas
Author: Donald L. Horowitz
Author: Francis M. Deng
Author: Shanna A. Kirschner